Steamer Fantasy Baseball Auction Values Now Up on FG+
I’m happy to announce the fantasy values have come to FanGraphs+! Based on Steamer projections, these values are for standard, OBP, and “only” leagues based on the following descriptors: 12 teams, 23 starting lineup slots, $260 budget. They will appear on the projections’ leaderboard for FanGraphs+ subscribers ($4.99/yr).
The methodology for these values has long floated around the site, but there are a few minor changes that have been made to better the accuracy and efficacy of these values.
The replacement levels have been altered to cover a full league’s worth of players. In the past, we had assumed that the last round of two contained replacement players, but discarding this assumption leads to fuller, more accurate auction values. Now, the top 276 players are worth a combined $3120, which is the full budgeted amount for a 12-team auction draft.
In the past, we’d limited results to players that met a certain at-bat or innings threshold. This is no longer the case. However, there is still need for a baseline uninfluenced by low counting stats, the league averages and standard deviations were calculated using the players with at least 350 ABs or 40 IP.
FanGraphs+ Giveaway!
Name the player the following player capsule describes in the comments and win free access to FanGraphs+!
The 33-year-old [Player] is past his “prime.” While he used to provide some power ([number less than ten] homers in 2010), he looks to be done. He never hit for average (.232 career), but it dropped to [number less than .232] this last year. Two pitchers, Hamels (.217) and Kershaw (.207), had better averages in 2012 (70 minimum plate appearances). Also, the power disappeared, as he ended the season with only one home run. Finally, he stole two bases which was only one off of his career high. Basically he is not good enough to play and when he does, he produces no value. (Jeff Zimmerman)
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Don Kelly
Is that you, Jim Leyland?
Don Kelly it is!
Hey BK, you big winner — email me your FG log-in info to enosarris @ fangraphs.com. And I’ll get you on FG+.
Don Kelly is the answer
Don Kelly
Don Kelly
Don Kelly
for fantasy formats such as ottoneu, which use a $400 budget, should i just be multiplying the values by ~1.5 or is there some more scientific approach?
fg+ offers ottoneu auction values for all formats, saving you the hassle of this sort of math!
Where exactly?
i’m a fg+ subscriber, so i’ve seen those. but they are based on bill james projections so i would like a second opinion.
Ah yes I see.
FWIW, I am severely not mathematically minded and I was able to follow the general idea of Zach’s FVARz system using the links in his blog to arrive at true values for another league. If you are in one of the ottoneu points leagues it is pretty easy to convert steamer projections into values; I knocked it out in about 2 hours last night. Takes a little bit more time to do it for roto leagues but still doable.
http://www.fangraphs.com/plus/index.php/auction-values-for-all-three-ottoneu-formats/
Yes. Seen that. I thought we were talking about Steamer projections.
ottoneu is a FanGraphs product, right? So how about having the projections published here show ottoneu auction values. All of them. Is that too much to ask? On the projections page, not in a separate spreadsheet. Maybe that is too much, but it would be way cool…
this is all work towards a full customizable calculator where you can choose your projections inputs, for example. But we’d like to be sure of ourselves every step of the way, so for now this is how we’ve proceeded. I’ll take your feedback into advisement.
Don Kelly shows as 32 years old.
Brooks Conrad (age 33) also looks like he could fit that bill.
Could you add unadjusted (for position) dollar values as well? These are important for filling bench/DH roles.
I don’t think this is worth the effort. For one thing, positional flexibility is going to be something most owners consider when filling bench or util spots based on team needs.
If you have a budget for your bench/util/dh slots, look at the guys who fall within that budget range and identify the people who meet your needs there. Chances are a $1 OF will be more productive in a util slot than a $1 SS, given the depth of their positions, but the type of productivity you need is important to consider and the dollar value won’t reflect this.
I don’t think there is a ton of “effort” in removing a linear adjustment… In fact, the replacement level for a position is going to vary quite a bit according to league parameters, so a one-size-fits-all positional adjustment hardly seems like it should be the only option when it would be better for an owner to apply his own scarcity adjustments. An additional benefit would be for salary leagues where you need to know raw values since there is no position scarcity involved.
This is great stuff. Any plans to include values for an OPS league? Also, can anyone explain what is meant by “The replacement levels have been altered to cover a full league’s worth of players”? I’ve been working through this methodology to develop my own fantasy values.
It sounds like he previously assumed that a certain number of players league-wide would go for the league minimum, and decided to force that (i.e. the last 24 players drafted are all worth $1).
For most people who use this method, only the last player drafted at each position is worth the league minimum. In my scoring system for example, Andrelton Simmons and Jhonny Peralta are the last two SS taken. Rather than having them both at $1, my numbers say Simmons is slightly better than Peralta, so it puts him at $1.6 (while Peralta stays at $1).
Ah. That makes sense now. Thanks.
It assumes the last player at each position is worth $1. Not the last 24 overall.
Carlos Pena, glad to see him no longer sitting on my AL dynasty roster.
Wait, what?
Stanton vs. Rizzo in your projections.
Stanton has more HR, RBI, R, a higher BA, and the same number of steals.
Yet he’s worth $3 less in NL-only.
Kind of hard to take these seriously with inconsistencies like that, no?
On top of that, you’re projecting Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco for over 500 AB each?
Please let me know if I’m misunderstanding the projections for some reason.
Don Kelly
I can’t find the Steamer auction values for the life of me. Am I blind? I don’t see them anywhere on the projections page.