State of Saves: 2020 Edition
I know information from the 2020 season will be suspect for future use and that includes closer usage patterns. Some parts are interesting. Others useless. Before going through each closer situation, I figured it would be a blood bath. After a month of constant flux, the results are better than I expected (not one established closer lost his job in September). The useable information seems to be in line with the last few seasons.
First off, the emphasis of this study is to determine how many draft-day closers make it through the season. Here is this season’s list with all previous studies found here.
| Team | (Eventual)Top Guy | Going into season | Last Until | Reason if Replaced | Saves | % of Team Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Hansel Robles | One Guy | 8/4/2020 | Poor Performance | 1 | 8% |
| Astros | Ryan Pressly | Replacement Coming | EOS | None | 12 | 75% |
| Athletics | Liam Hendriks | One Guy | EOS | None | 14 | 82% |
| Blue Jays | Ken Giles | One Guy | 7/26/2020 | Injury | 1 | 6% |
| Braves | Mark Melancon | One Guy | EOS | None | 11 | 85% |
| Brewers | Josh Hader | One Guy | EOS | None | 13 | 93% |
| Cardinals | Kwang-Hyun Kim | One Guy | 8/5/2020 | Retrun to Rotation | 1 | 8% |
| Cubs | Craig Kimbrel | One Guy | 8/3/2020 | Poor Performance | 2 | 13% |
| Diamondbacks | Archie Bradley | One Guy | 8/31/2020 | Traded away | 6 | 46% |
| Dodgers | Kenley Jansen | One Guy | EOS | None | 11 | 73% |
| Giants | Tyler Rogers | Competition | 7/30/2020 | Poor Performance | 3 | 23% |
| Indians | Brad Hand | One Guy | EOS | None | 16 | 80% |
| Mariners | Matt Magill | Competition | 8/28/2020 | Injury | 0 | 0% |
| Marlins | Brandon Kintzler | One Guy | EOS | None | 12 | 67% |
| Mets | Edwin Díaz | One Guy | 8/7/2020 | Poor Performance | 6 | 55% |
| Nationals | Daniel Hudson | One Guy | EOS | None | 10 | 83% |
| Orioles | Mychal Givens | Competition | 8/31/2020 | Poor Performance | 5 | 45% |
| Padres | Kirby Yates | One Guy | 8/10/2020 | Injury | 2 | 15% |
| Phillies | Héctor Neris | One Guy | 8/23/2020 | Poor Performance | 5 | 45% |
| Pirates | Kyle Crick | Replacement Coming | 8/28/2020 | Injury | 0 | 0% |
| Rangers | José Leclerc | One Guy | 7/29/2020 | Injury | 1 | 10% |
| Rays | Nick Anderson | One Guy | 8/23/2020 | Injury | 6 | 26% |
| Red Sox | Brandon Workman | One Guy | 8/21/2020 | Traded away | 9 | 64% |
| Reds | Raisel Iglesias | One Guy | EOS | None | 8 | 89% |
| Rockies | Wade Davis | One Guy | 8/2/2020 | Injury | 2 | 13% |
| Royals | Trevor Rosenthal | One Guy | 8/29/2020 | Traded away | 11 | 58% |
| Tigers | Joe Jiménez | One Guy | 8/26/2020 | Poor Performance | 5 | 45% |
| Twins | Taylor Rogers | One Guy | EOS | None | 9 | 53% |
| White Sox | Alex Colomé | One Guy | EOS | None | 12 | 92% |
| Yankees | Zack Britton | Replacement Coming | 8/19/2020 | Injury | 8 | 57% |
In the sprint, 11 made it, a four-year high. The number would have likely dropped in a normal season. Basically, the full-season turnover happened in the 60-game sprint. Here is how the abbreviated season compares to the last few (incumbent is the pitcher who is the presumed closer to start the season).
| Year | Saves by Incumbent | Team Saves | % Saves by Incumbent | Total EOS | EOS % | Same Incumbent as the previous year | Same Incumbent % | Players Getting Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 927 | 1266 | 73.2% | 15 | 50.0% | 130 | ||
| 2014 | 746 | 1264 | 59.0% | 11 | 36.7% | 16 | 53.3% | 134 |
| 2015 | 737 | 1292 | 57.0% | 11 | 36.7% | 14 | 46.7% | 145 |
| 2016 | 797 | 1276 | 62.5% | 11 | 36.7% | 16 | 53.3% | 148 |
| 2017 | 668 | 1179 | 56.7% | 10 | 33.3% | 13 | 43.3% | 162 |
| 2018 | 759 | 1244 | 61.0% | 5 | 16.7% | 12 | 40.0% | 165 |
| 2019 | 573 | 1180 | 48.6% | 7 | 23.3% | 9 | 30.0% | 199 |
| 2020 | 202 | 422 | 47.9% | 11 | 36.7% | 8 | 26.7% | 131 |
| Avg | 676.1 | 1140.4 | 59.3% | 10.1 | 33.8% | 12.6 | 41.9% | 151.8 |
Again, most of the information can be ignored because of the small sample. The main points are.
- Saves are being spread around with the “closer” getting fewer and fewer chances. The drop could be overstated because closers could throw in both halves of all the doubleheaders.
- Fewer than a third of the closers keep the job from season-to-season. They are just horrible keeper/dynasty investments.
- With closers, it’s getting more important to focus on talent since most relievers will end up with some Saves.
That’s it for this year. Onto more seasonal recaps.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
For point #1, are they all really bad investments or are elite guys on top teams that hold the job long term really good investments? I mean if turnover is so high, wouldnt guys like Chapman, Kenley, Hader, etc be good ideas? I guess No in 12 teamers, but in 20+ deep leagues I think that changes because there just aren’t easy add new closers available.
Auction keeper leagues are another place closers’ aren’t bad keeper options.