Starting Pitchers to Stream — 9/23/20

Let’s continue our look at potentially streaming starting pitchers owned in 30% or fewer leagues on CBS. Today we’ll look at Wednesday’s slate as indicated by CBS. Below, I’ll discuss each stream candidate and conclude with a STREAM or NOT decision.

Dean Kremer | vs Nathan Eovaldi @ BOS

Kremer was ranked as the orioles 13th best prospect heading into the season, and he’s posted strong results over his first three starts. However, below the sparkling surface ERA of 1.69, I have many concerns. First, his SwStk% is just below 10% at 9.9%, which is well below the 11.3% league average, and therefore doesn’t normally justify a strikeout rate over 30%. We find that his looking strike rate is significantly above the league average, but that’s flukier than swinging strike rate. In addition, he hasn’t been throwing strikes, with a strike percentage well below the average, and he’s allowed a high rate of flies. All of this is over a small sample, but the point of sharing is so you completely ignore his 1.69 ERA and also question his 4.42 SIERA. He’s a clear NOT against a good Red Sox offense.

Steven Matz | vs Tyler Glasnow vs. TB

Man, talk about small sample randomness wreaking havoc on ratios! Despite posting a career best strikeout rate and SwStk% , along with a SIERA right in line with previous seasons, Matz owns an absurd 9.79 ERA. It’s all because of a .360 BABIP and 34.4% HR/FB rate. The BABIP is driven b a 30.6% LD%, so it’s kind of deserved, but is the LD% itself deserved or sustainable? His stuff clearly seems fine and his fastball velocity surprisingly sits at a career high. But of course, he hasn’t gone more than 4.1 innings since his second start of the season, for obvious reasons. Obviously, you’re going to be scared out of your mind to start him if you risk losing ratio points. This is especially true against a good Rays offense against southpaws. The risk averse should NOT him, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he enjoys a respectable outing given his perfectly find peripherals.

Alex Young | vs Wes Benjamin vs. TEX

Young has one of those skill sets where he’s not really good at anything, which is not a good place to be as a starting pitcher. That said, he does a reasonable enough job generating whiffs, but that skill hasn’t translated into strikeouts, as this year he has struggled getting called strikes, while last year he struggled getting foul strikes. The good news is that the Rangers have been awful against lefties this year, rarely walking, striking out often, and hitting for limited power. Of course, the lineup is very different now than the one that composes most of that season line against lefties. If you love to try playing the matchups, this could be a good one, but Young is the type of pitcher I would never start against anyone, making him a NOT for me.

Logan Webb | vs Ryan Castellani vs. COL

There’s really not much to like about Webb’s underlying skills, except perhaps his low FB%. What he does have going for him is a great matchup. The Rockies sport just a .282 wOBA, including lots of strikeouts, limited power, and a low BABIP, against right-handers in away parks. The Rockies always sport stark splits home vs away, so this year is no different. I like this matchup slightly better than Young’s above because Webb has shown ground ball ability in the past so he could limit home run damage. Given the dearth so far of other streaming options, I’ll stick my head out and go STREAM here.

Trevor Williams | vs Kyle Hendricks vs. CHC

The universe continues to prove that Williams’ low BABIP fueled 2018 “breakout” was a complete fluke, reminding us once again that BABIP supression skills take a long time to confirm. Now he’s back to the blah skilled pitcher he always was, which is not appealing for fantasy owners. Even a mediocre Cubs offense isn’t enough to want to start him, so he’s a NOT.

Jaime Barria | vs Garrett Richards @ SD

Sheesh, finally a pitcher with acceptable skills, plus a double digit SwStk%, but who faces a team that has posted the fourth highest wOBA against right-handers in baseball. Barria’s extreme fly ball tendency and slider-heavy repertoire makes him a big risk in any particular start and opposing a team with the third highest ISO against righties puts him at risk of major ratio damage. He’s a NOT as a result.

Nick Margevicius | vs Zack Greinke vs. HOU

Margevicius does not miss bats, but has still managed to post a strikeout rate above 20% thanks to a high called strike rate. I hate to rely on a pitch who is unable to make batters swing and miss, and he’s facing an Astros team that has posted the second lowest strikeout rate vs left-handers in baseball. That could result in a ton of balls in play, which mean more opportunities for hits and home runs. No thanks, he’s a NOT.

Ryan Castellani | vs Logan Webb @ SF

How does a guy who posted an 8.31 ERA at Triple-A last year with a 6.26 xFIP and a poor performance record before that even make it to the Majors. With a 6.12 SIERA and nearly as many walks and strikeouts, I’ve already typed too many words on Castellani. Possibly the most obvious NOT candidates so far.

Erick Fedde | vs TBD vs. PHI

It’s hard to strike out just 11.8% of batters, but not only has Fedde done that this season, he was actually barely above that rate last year too, suggesting this isn’t just some slow start. I don’t know what has caused the collapse in Fedde’s strikeout rate, but I’ll let the Nationals figure that out rather than hope it rebounds the one time I decide to stream him. He’s a NOT.

Wes Benjamin | vs Alex Young @ ARI

Benjamin is a 27-year-old rookie who was not ranked among the Rangers top prospects heading into the season. Despite the lack of fanfare, he has been fairly solid over his first 16.1 innings, posting a 24.3% strikeout rate, backed by a 13.2% SwStk%, fueling a 4.11 SIERA. There’s one problem — he hasn’t started a game yet. That said, he did go four innings in relief in his last two outings, so perhaps he’s capable of going five and qualifying for the win if he’s pitching well. The Diamondbacks have posted the second lowest wOBA against lefties in baseball, with a lack of walks and no power. It’s a perfect matchup and he’s shown enough to be worth the STREAM.