Starting Pitcher Stuff+ Leaders & Laggards — May 5, 2025

Last week, I shared that from 2021 to 2024, there has been about a 0.70 correlation between pitcher strikeout rate and Stuff+ grade for those who have recorded at least 100 innings. So then it follows that just like SwStk% and then years later, CSW%, Stuff+ should make for a pretty good proxy of what a pitcher’s strikeout rate should be. Remember, it’s backwards looking so don’t mistake Stuff+ to be predictive, though you would assume if a pitcher currently owns a high/low mark, he’ll continue to maintain that level. So let’s dive into the current starting pitcher Stuff+ leaders and laggards and see if we could identify any who may be in line for an increased or reduced strikeout rate if they maintain the quality of their repertoire.

Hunter Greene is far and away the leader in Stuff+ and is the only one sitting comfortably in the 120+ range. He’s gained an astounding 13 points of Stuff+ since last year, with increases across the board, including an absurd 18 point jump from his slider. Greene could thank a velocity spike for the improved stuff, which has taken his repertoire from excellent to truly elite. One way to avoid luck regression after overperforming his SIERA last year by more than a full run is to take his skills to greater heights! He still allows lots of home runs given his extreme fly ball ways, but along with a strikeout rate increase, he’s cut his walk rate in half, so there have been far fewer baserunners to score on those homers.

No surprise to find Tarik Skubal’s name near the top of this list. He could also thank a velocity spike that first occurred in 2023 for taking his strikeout rate to elite levels and turning him into a perennial Cy Young award winning contender. Amazingly, his velocity has continued to increase each year since.

Cristopher Sánchez had a recent injury scare, but his velocity rebounded last start and he seems to be okay. One of the talks of spring training, he has maintained his velocity spike and has seen his Stuff+ rise by eight points compared to last year. He’s now become a strikeout pitcher while still generating a mid-50% ground ball rate, which is a rare skill set.

Tylor Megill?! He’s the first real surprise name on here. He’s gained a 10 Stuff+ since last year, most of it coming from his four-seamer. The pitch, though, hasn’t gained any velocity is actually down a couple of ticks, so I wouldn’t have expected it to show up so much better. Interestingly, his SwStk% is down meaningfully, despite the increased Stuff+, but his strikeout rate is up, as his CStr% has more than made up for the loss in SwStk%. I don’t see him maintaining this strikeout rate, regardless of whether the Stuff+ holds up. And obviously, he’s not going to hold a sub-2.00 ERA for much longer.

I talked about Jackson Jobe in last week’s rookie Stuff+ post and noted the incredible gap between his strikeout rate and Stuff+. He made one more start since, striking out 20% of batters faced. He could be a really good example for the Stuff+ model to use to improve, as it’s quite clear that Jobe is lacking somewhere that’s not being captured by the metric. A weak 8.7% SwStk% and 23.8% CSW% makes you question how his stuff could grade out so well and yet opposing batters have no problems making contact with it. Though to be fair, his xERA suggests that he has mostly deserved the low BABIP, so perhaps his high quality stuff is getting weak contact as opposed to whiffs.

No surprise to find Garrett Crochet’s name here, though it is a surprise to see his strikeout rate below 30% after last year’s crazy 35.1% mark. His Stuff+ is down a couple of ticks, but nothing to worry about, while he hasn’t been quite able to hold onto last year’s velocity gain. The elevated walk rate adds to the very slight concerns here.

Drew Rasmussen missed most of the 2023 and 2024 seasons recovering from elbow surgery, but he hasn’t missed a beat this year after slotting back into the starting rotation full-time. He’s less of a fireballer than he used to be, but still has plenty of velocity. His SwStk% is at a career worst though, while his CSW% is actually below the league average. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he was unable to maintain a mid-20% strikeout rate, more in line with his current rest of season projections.

Hunter Brown was also included in last week’s Stuff+ risers article, though it’s down three points since posting. Like many on the list above him, he has benefited from increased fastball velocity, though his velocity was down over his last two starts compared to where it had been. If he’s back to throwing 96 MPH, instead of 97+, I think it’ll be much more difficult for him to maintain a 30%+ strikeout rate. That said, velocity does fluctuate from start to start, so we’ll see if it’s back in the 97 range his next time out. Even if not, his skill set is strong enough that even when his luck normalizes, we’re still left with an upper tier contributor.

It figures for Mets fans that as soon as Zack Wheeler signs with another team, he goes from a very good pitcher to elite. His velocity is down a bit from his peak years, but his Stuff+ hasn’t suffered too dramatically and his SwStk%, CSW%, and K% all actually sits at career bests right now.

Shane Baz’s strong Stuff+ has been almost entirely driven by his elite knuckle curve, which may be the same as his regular curve from previous years and reclassified or is actually this new pitch. Despite the strong Stuff+, he has only generated a 10.3% SwStk%, which is below the 10.9% league average, but has partially offset it with a strong CStr%. Home runs have not been an issue yet this season, despite starting five of his six games at his new home park that ranks seventh in baseball in HR park factor.

After an absolutely dominant spring training, the hype was growing for Spencer Schwellenbach heading into the season. Though his Stuff+ has actually increased a couple of ticks versus last year, while his SwStk% is up marginally, his strikeout rate has dropped by nearly four percentage points, mostly due to a drop in CStr%. With his three most thrown pitches all sporting SwStk% marks of at least 12.5%, and two of which are nearing 20%, the stuff here is elite. He seems like a near lock to see an increased strikeout rate the rest of the way, perhaps significantly so.

Welllll this is an unappealing list!

Martín Pérez is out for a while with an elbow injury.

Kyle Hendricks still hasn’t been able to capture the mojo he had back with the Cubs through 2020. Thanks to a ton of called strikes and probably some excellent Cubs defense behind him, he posted decent skills, but overperformed his SIERA thanks to consistently low BABIP marks. With his strikeout rate crashing and continuing to decline, even a low BABIP can’t save him.

Jose Quintana has never rated well on Stuff+, but this is easily his worst season so far. And yet, his strikeout rate isn’t far off from his last two seasons, and he’s rode a low BABIP and skyhigh LOB% to a sub-3.00 ERA. He has somehow massively overperformed his SIERA and xERA each season since 2022, but I’m not the type of risk taker to bet on that overperformance to continue, especially given the low strikeout rate.

Ben Lively ranks last among qualified pitchers in SwStk%, which matches with the low Stuff+, but is once again overperforming both his SIERA and xERA. Like Quintana above, give me a middle reliever with a high strikeout rate all day over a guy like Lively.

How the Yankees, of all teams, couldn’t find a better stopgap starting pitcher than Carlos Carrasco, is beyond me! I used to be a big Carrasco fan, but his stuff has deteriorated enough that I’m surprised he keeps recording 100ish innings.

Zack Littell’s Stuff+ dropped below 90 last season and it’s down even further this season. His strikeout rate has come crashing down along with it and his velocity, which fell by 1.7 MPH last year, is down slightly again this year. I don’t see him being rosterable either.

With a name like Brad Lord, you’d think he’d be some fantasy team’s savior! He’s a good example of why minor league ERA means absolutely nothing. He has consistently posted underwhelming mid-20% CSW% marks there, which would translate to a weak strikeout rate in the Majors. Combine that with a poor Stuff+ grade and you get a pitcher that should be nowhere near fantasy team rosters.

Does anyone own Antonio Senzatela in a fantasy league anywhere?

Remember when Germán Márquez was actually good and one of the rare rosterable Rockies starting pitchers? I know, that was a long time ago, all the way back in 2018. Amazingly, he’s still throwing 95+ MPH, but his slider has rated sub-100 in Stuff+ the last three years and that’s his most used secondary. He still owns an elite knuckle curve though, which feels hard to do at Coors. I’m pretty shocked his stuff rates this lowly in Stuff+ right now and he’s posted a meager 11.8% SwStk%.

It’s weird that teams keep taking a chance on Cal Quantrill whose stuff is well below average, while he consistently posts weak CSW% marks. Perhaps teams think he could overperform his SIERA and xERA again like he did from 2020-2022, but betting on the luck metrics over more stable skills like strikeout and whiff ability is usually a mistake.

Gosh, Ryan Feltner makes for the third Rockies starter on this list. Is the team even trying?!

Andre Pallante has lost eight points of Stuff+ versus last year, mostly due to his four-seamer, and partially from his slider. The fastball is down a bit in velocity, but what’s odd is that his SwStk% is in double digits for the first time, while his CSW% is at a career high (but still well below league average), and yet his strikeout rate has tumbled from an already low mark. The one redeeming quality here is the super high GB%, which really cushions his downside. He would be quite intriguing if he raised his strikeout rate to even just 20%.

I purposely extended this last to end on Zac Gallen, because I was shocked to see his name here among the rest of the low strikeout guys. Gallen’s Stuff+ began at 106 in his second year in 2020 and remained over 100 for two more seasons. Since 2022, however, it has declined each year and has been sub-100 for three years running now. His velocity had been pretty stable, but is down a bit this year, while his pitch mix has remaining rather consistent. So it’s surprising to see such a decline in Stuff+. His strikeout rate still remains above average and around 26% after a small dip last season, though his walk rate has crept into double digits for the first time since his 2019 debut. He has also become an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is good for suppressing his BABIP, but has made him vulnerable to the longball. I simply can’t be that optimistic about this low of a Stuff+ that has recorded a SwStk% just below 10%.