Starting Pitcher Outside Factors Chart
In the middle to late rounds of a draft, pitchers seem to blend together. Picking between two similar pitchers can be difficult. To help with these decisions, I have created a simple cheat sheet to determine which pitcher has an easier path to success based on several outside factors like schedule strength and bullpen quality.
The chart is simple. I went through each factor which may influence a pitcher’s prediction in which they have no control over. I collected projections on each metric and then found the z-score for each value. Greater than 0 is good, less than zero is bad. Then for each team, I added up the z-scores for a final overall value.
The cheat chart is not perfect. It’s to be used as a guide. For example, if a pitcher is a heavy groundball pitcher, the user may not want to add the team’s outfield defense and home park home run factor. A different user may have the perfect projection set except for bullpen and defense. They can ignore the rest of the information. Additionally, a user may want to create their own category weightings. Again, this is just a guide.
To start with, here are the categories and the where I got the values.
Category: Source
- RS/G: (Runs Scored by Pitcher’s team/Game): Projected standings page
- SOS (strength of schedule): From the process which Jeff Sullivan used in this article
- Overall Home Park (Factors): Park factors page
- Home Run Park (Factors): Park factors page
- OF Defense: From each team’s projection page
- IF Defense: Overall defense minus outfield defense
- Away Park: Average park factor for the other four teams in the team’s division
- Away HR Park: Average home run park factor for the other four teams in the team’s division
- Bullpen: Overal team bullpen FIP
- AL vs NL: +0.5 for being in the NL and -0.5 for the AL
And now the data.
| Team | R/G | SOS | All Home Park | Home Run Park | OF Defense | IF Defense | Away Park | Away HR Park | Bullpen | AL vs NL | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | -0.1 | -0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 2 |
| Astros | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -0.5 | 2 |
| Athletics | -1.2 | -1.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -1.2 | -1.6 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -4 |
| Blue Jays | 0.6 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -1.0 | -2.6 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -4 |
| Braves | -1.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -1.0 | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brewers | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -0.5 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 | -1.3 | 0.5 | -4 |
| Cardinals | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | -0.7 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -1.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Cubs | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 | -0.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 7 |
| Diamondbacks | 0.5 | 0.2 | -1.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 0.5 | -2 |
| Dodgers | 0.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 7 |
| Giants | -0.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | -0.6 | 1.9 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 7 |
| Indians | 1.0 | 2.0 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 1.6 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 3 |
| Mariners | 0.7 | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.0 | -0.5 | 3 |
| Marlins | -1.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3 |
| Mets | -0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -2.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Nationals | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 4 |
| Orioles | 0.3 | -1.5 | -0.4 | -1.1 | -1.7 | 1.7 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -5 |
| Padres | -0.6 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.4 | -0.5 | -2.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -1 |
| Phillies | -1.9 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 0.2 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 0.5 | -2 |
| Pirates | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | -1.1 | -0.3 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Rangers | 0.7 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 1 |
| Rays | -0.9 | -1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -0.1 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -3 |
| Red Sox | 2.6 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | -0.5 | -1.8 | 0.6 | -0.5 | 2 |
| Reds | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -1.2 | 0.5 | -1 |
| Rockies | 2.0 | 0.5 | -3.9 | -1.7 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | -1.2 | 0.5 | -1 |
| Royals | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -0.5 | -2 |
| Tigers | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -1.5 | 0.6 | -1.3 | -0.1 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -3 |
| Twins | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -3 |
| White Sox | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 0.8 | -1.3 | -0.5 | -6 |
| Yankees | -0.7 | -1.3 | -0.2 | -1.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -0.6 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -6 |
Besides the overall table, here are the teams ranked based on this overall value. Feel free to copy-and-paste the data into a spreadsheet to create custom ranks.
| Team | Total |
|---|---|
| Giants | 7.4 |
| Cubs | 6.7 |
| Dodgers | 6.6 |
| Nationals | 3.7 |
| Indians | 3.3 |
| Marlins | 3.2 |
| Mariners | 3.2 |
| Red Sox | 2.2 |
| Cardinals | 1.9 |
| Astros | 1.8 |
| Angels | 1.8 |
| Mets | 0.7 |
| Rangers | 0.7 |
| Pirates | 0.2 |
| Braves | -0.3 |
| Rockies | -0.6 |
| Padres | -1.1 |
| Reds | -1.4 |
| Royals | -1.6 |
| Diamondbacks | -2.2 |
| Phillies | -2.4 |
| Twins | -2.7 |
| Rays | -3.0 |
| Tigers | -3.2 |
| Athletics | -3.7 |
| Blue Jays | -3.9 |
| Brewers | -4.2 |
| Orioles | -5.3 |
| Yankees | -5.7 |
| White Sox | -6.0 |
Basically, owners should draft pitchers from the Giants, Cubs, and Dodgers and don’t from pitchers on the Orioles, Yankees, and White Sox when picking from two or more options.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
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