Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Increasers — Through Apr 15, 2023

It’s been about a week since I last reviewed the starting pitcher fastball velocity gainers, so let’s take another look. Velocity does fluctuate from start to start, so even though it’s far more meaningful in one game than a pitcher’s walk rate in that game, it’s still subject to the same small sample size caveats as any other metric. So with a bunch more innings in the books, let’s revisit the fastball velocity gainers. It’s also important to check the game logs and see if the velocity has been consistent, or if the average was inflated by just one outing. Finally, it’s helpful to check the maxVel, because a pitcher might not actually be throwing harder, but instead the smaller sample has reduced his lower velocity fastballs that over a season would bring down his average.

A reminder that if I’ve already discussed the pitcher in either my first review or second writeup, I will not be posting comments about the pitcher again as nothing will have changed. So before asking me why I didn’t discuss the pitcher you own that’s on the above list, please check the links to see my comments there.

Needing a starter last Friday, the Twins recalled Louie Varland to make a spot start and then promptly returned him to Triple-A. The 77th overall prospect debuted last year to make five starts and while the results were fine, his strong minor league strikeout rate failed to carry over. However, his fastball velocity spiked during his first start with the Twins this year and he already maxed out at a higher velocity than he notched during his 26 innings last season. All four of his pitches recorded mid-teen SwStk% marks, so it was quite the impressive outing. With a full rotation, it’s anyone’s guess when Varland will get another shot, but he’s quite exciting if he could sustain the velocity spike.

Drey Jameson opened the season in the Diamondbacks bullpen, before joining the rotation and making one start. I’m comparing only his starter innings to his innings last year (all thrown as a starter), and amazingly, he didn’t really lose any velocity in his first start, compared to his three relief outings. With an elite slider already, and one that already was last year even at the lower velocity, I’m intrigued here. He has also been a ground ball pitcher for most of his career, so if he could get those grounders back, there’s a lot to like.

Cole Irvin’s velocity increase clearly hadn’t helped him yet as his SwStk% actually sat at its lowest in his career, though somehow his strikeout rate jumped. He’s back in the minors and even if he returns, there’s no interest there.

If only Ryan Feltner didn’t call Coors Field home. Though he won’t last in the rotation much longer if he doesn’t get that crazy 16.9% walk rate under control!

Eduardo Rodriguez’s fastball velocity has been consistent throughout his career…consistently declining every single season that is. Since his 2015 debut when he averaged 94.6 MPH with his four-seamer, it’s dropped every single season, ultimately bottoming at just 92 MPH last year. So far, it looks like he’ll rebound some this season, as he’s back up to where he sat in 2021. So that’s good that he hasn’t dropped further, though both his SwStk% and strikeout rate have been in freefall. Once a pretty solid strikeout guy with double digit SwStk% marks, his signature changeup’s effectiveness has gone downhill. The pitch sports a career SwStk% of 17.7%, the only pitch of his in double digits, but it was at just 13.4% last year, and is at just 10.2% so far this year. That’s not good when it’s your only good secondary pitch. On a weak Tigers offense and a less pitcher friendly park this year, I’m not going to bother buying a rebound.

It’s unfair to hitters when an already elite pitcher who averaged 97 MPH with his fastball starts to throw even harder. That’s what hitters are now thinking when facing Shane McClanahan, who has dealt with some uncharacteristic control problems so far. I don’t know where his velocity sat as I type this, but this season’s average was inflated due to his first two starts when he sat 98 MPH, as compared to his third start when he was at 97.5 MPH. Still, even the lower third start was above his 2022 average. That said, he hasn’t exceeded his maxVel of 101.3 MPH yet this year, so he’s not really throwing harder, but just keeping his minimum velocities each game higher than last year. His pitch mix is a sight to behold, as his changeup has generated an absurd 30.6% SwStk%, while his curveball sits at 20%. How does he feature two pitches with at least a 20% SwStk%?! Oh, and his fastball and slider are both in double digits as well.

I chose to finish with Lucas Giolito, as he ruined some of my teams last year with his disappointing performance. His velocity, which spiked in 2019 and coincided with a breakout, stayed at least 94 MPH through 2021, as he remained a top fantasy starter. Then his velocity dipped last year and his results followed. This year, his velocity has partially rebounded, which is excellent news, but it’s still not quite all the way back. The good news is his lowest velocity game was his first and he’s averaged 94 MPH and 93.6 MPH since. Unfortunately, the better velocity hasn’t matter at all, as his SwStk% and strikeout rate have both continued to tumble. I have mixed feelings here, as I am both hesitant to buy, but also wouldn’t be surprised if his results (SwStk% and strikeout rate) get significantly better as his velocity creeps closer to his 2019-2021 levels.