Starting Pitcher Chart – September 24th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | MIL | NYM | x | x | x | 3.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 30% K-BB | .338 – 6th | Still hasn’t hit the +100 IP loose target MIL allowed for SPs |
| Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | NYY | x | x | x | 2.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 29% K-BB | .335 – 7th | First 30-start season since 2014 |
| Max Fried | ATL | at SDP | x | x | x | 2.61 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .293 – 23rd | Absolutely dominant 2H: 1.99 ERA, 76 Ks in 77 IP |
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | at BOS | x | x | x | 3.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .375 – 1st | Nightmare 7 ER dud v. CLE had to sting, but still auto-start |
| José Berríos | TOR | at MIN | x | x | x | 2.38 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 25% K-BB | .313 – 14th | Revenge game! |
| Dylan Cease | CWS | at CLE | x | x | x | 4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .299 – 25th | Rebounded from BOS dud (7 ER) w/5 scoreless at TEX |
| Frankie Montas | OAK | HOU | x | x | x | 2.32 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .344 – 4th | Wish the schedule favored him, but 2.04 ERA in 3 GS v. HOU |
| Sonny Gray | CIN | WAS | x | x | x | 2.79 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .331 – 9th | Has allowed >4 ER just once since July 26th (10 starts) |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | at LAA | x | x | x | 3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .292 – 26th | Has emerged from rookie wall lull w/2.01 ERA in L4 |
| Carlos Hernández | KCR | at DET | x | x | x | 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .304 – 21st | His L5 ERA is pretty good considering the 7 ER last time out |
| Shane Bieber | CLE | CWS | x | x | x | 3.48 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .329 – 11th | No word about SP limits so I’d take the shot w/him |
| José Suarez | LAA | SEA | x | x | x | 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .328 – 13th | Quietly rolling since Aug: 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 44 IP |
| Kyle Gibson | PHI | PIT | x | x | x | 5.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .308 – 18th | If you can’t start him here, he shouldn’t be on the roster |
| Paolo Espino | WAS | at CIN | x | x | 3.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .301 – 23rd | Feeling lucky? 5, 3, 1, 2, 5, 1, 0 ER over his last L7 | |
| J.A. Happ | STL | at CHC | x | x | 6.86 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .343 – 9th | Has a 4.40 ERA in 3 starts since that 7 ER dud | |
| Alex Wood | SFG | at COL | x | 3.81 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .352 – 9th* | So many good SPs having to hit Coors down the stretch | ||
| Zack Greinke | HOU | at OAK | x | 7.56 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .313 – 15th | Has allowed 5+ ER in L3 so not a guarantee here | ||
| Miguel Yajure | PIT | at PHI | x | 3.86 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .340 – 5th | 1st MLB start since mid-May (2.78 ERA in L5 MILB GS) | ||
| Jack Flaherty | STL | at CHC | x | 4.37 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .333 – 8th | Getting a follower so only use if you can use any decent IP | ||
| Edward Cabrera | MIA | at TBR | x | 5.31 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .310 – 16th | Remember how excited his debut made us? Just be careful here | ||
| Tony Gonsolin | LAD | at ARI | x | 3.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .271 – 30th | Under 4 IP/start over his last 7; if you want 2-4 useful IP | ||
| Bailey Ober | MIN | TOR | 4.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 24% K-BB | .352 – 3rd | #NeverToronto | |||
| Casey Mize | DET | KCR | 3.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .301 – 22nd | IP mgmt. plan kills any shot at a W (8 IP in L3 GS) | |||
| Humberto Castellanos | ARI | LAD | 4.63 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .279 – 29th | Not even v. a sputtering LAD offense | |||
| Tylor Megill | NYM | at MIL | 7.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .308 -19th | HR issues have bred volatility over his L10 (2.3 HR9) | |||
| Spencer Howard | TEX | at BAL | 8.74 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .317 – 13th | Just 11.3 IP in is L5 combined | |||
| Justin Steele | CHC | STL | 5.16 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .250 – 30th | Don’t mess w/the Cardinals Devil Magic | |||
| Alexander Wells | BAL | at TEX | 9.70 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .296 -22nd | Just not tangible upside here | |||
| Zach Davies | CHC | STL | 8.38 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .305 – 20th | Don’t mess w/the Cardinals Devil Magic | |||
| Peter Lambert | COL | SFG | 10.42 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .356 – 2nd | 5+ ER in 4 of his last 5 |
Wacha?