Starting Pitcher Chart – September 23rd, 2024
- Daily SP Chart archive
- Check out the August SP Rankings (outdated)
There are only 4 games today so I didn’t think we needed a full night-before chart, especially since there aren’t even many tough choices.
- Start: Hunter Brown v. SEA, Aaron Nola v. CHC, Bryce Miller at HOU, Tanner Houck at TOR
- Stream: Eduardo Rodriguez v. SFG, Chris Bassitt v. BOS
- Stayaway: Hayden Wesneski as follower at PHI, Hayden Birdsong at ARI
Here’s the final 2-step board of the season:
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| RANK | TYPE | PITCHER | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | Pitch+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | TBR/CHW | 185 | 2.48 | 0.94 | 26% | 103 |
| 2 | 1 | Bailey Ober | MIA/BAL | 168.2 | 3.84 | 0.97 | 21% | 105 |
| 3 | 1 | Spencer Schwellenbach | NYM/KCR | 109.2 | 3.61 | 1.10 | 21% | 107 |
| 4 | 1 | Cole Ragans | at WSN/at ATL | 180.1 | 3.24 | 1.15 | 21% | 99 |
| 5 | 1 | Aaron Nola | CHC/at WSN | 188.1 | 3.54 | 1.17 | 18% | 105 |
| 6 | 2 | Bryce Miller | at HOU/OAK | 173.1 | 3.06 | 0.99 | 18% | 102 |
| 7 | 2 | Ryan Pepiot | at DET/at BOS | 121 | 3.64 | 1.13 | 18% | 99 |
| 8 | 2 | Michael King | at LAD/at ARI | 168.2 | 3.04 | 1.20 | 19% | 102 |
| 9 | 3 | Nathan Eovaldi | at OAK/at LAA | 156.2 | 3.96 | 1.13 | 18% | 104 |
| 10 | 3 | Tanner Houck | at TOR/TBR | 173.2 | 3.21 | 1.16 | 15% | 101 |
| 11 | 3 | Clarke Schmidt | BAL/PIT | 76 | 2.37 | 1.17 | 18% | 99 |
| 12 | 3 | Tobias Myers | at PIT/NYM | 130 | 3.05 | 1.19 | 16% | 101 |
| 13 | 4 | Luis Severino | at ATL/at MIL | 178 | 3.79 | 1.22 | 13% | 100 |
| 14 | 4 | Mitch Spence | TEX/at SEA | 142.1 | 4.30 | 1.36 | 13% | 103 |
| 15 | 4 | Jack Kochanowicz | at CHW/TEX | 51.1 | 4.56 | 1.32 | 5% | 101 |
| 16 | 4 | Landon Knack | SDP/at COL | 61 | 3.39 | 1.07 | 18% | 99 |
| 17 | 4 | Chris Bassitt | BOS/MIA | 166.2 | 4.16 | 1.43 | 14% | 99 |
| 18 | 5 | Eduardo Rodriguez | SFG/SDP | 40.2 | 5.09 | 1.45 | 12% | 103 |
| 19 | 5 | Dean Kremer | at NYY/at MIN | 124.2 | 4.19 | 1.25 | 13% | 100 |
| 20 | 5 | Jonathan Cannon | LAA/at DET | 113.1 | 4.61 | 1.36 | 9% | 102 |
| 21 | 5 | Bailey Falter | MIL/at NYY | 134.1 | 4.15 | 1.27 | 9% | 100 |
| 22 | 5 | Ryan Weathers | at MIN/at TOR | 75.1 | 3.94 | 1.18 | 16% | 96 |
| 23 | 5 | Ryan Feltner | STL/LAD | 150.1 | 4.73 | 1.37 | 12% | 100 |
| 24 | 6 | Hayden Birdsong | at ARI/STL | 62.2 | 4.74 | 1.39 | 12% | 92 |
| 25 | 6 | Michael McGreevy | at COL/at SFG | 10 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 16% | 104 |
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th) and over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.
If you just needs Ks and Ws, would two SP would you start? Wheeler @WAS (shutdown concerns), Rocker @OAK, Festa vs MIA, Kelly vs SD (hamstring concerns). I’m leaning Wheeler and Rocker.
Many thanks to Paul for a great 2024! If you answer this question correctly, the Tigers will make the postseason.
I’m also leaning Wheeler/Rocker with Festa lurking around Rocker. Both are rookie risks w/solid matchups (OAK isn’t easy, but they can get got by strong arms) and the need for Ks really aids Rocker here. Kelly is all the way out bc even apart from the hammy, SD is so tough. So yeah, let’s go Wheeler/Rocker.
Thanks, Paul! Agreed with the assessment. Festa’s only saving grace is that he has gone 5 IP and thus would be eligible for a W unlike Rocker but I think Rocker will very likely earn more Ks, which I also desperately need.