Starting Pitcher Chart – September 22nd, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | BAL | x | x | x | 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .319 – 12th | First to 200 IP and will likely be 1 of 4-5 to do it |
| Luis Garcia | HOU | at LAA | x | x | x | 3.25 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .285 – 26th | Really thought they’d stifle his IP, but he just keeps starting |
| Walker Buehler | LAD | at COL | x | x | x | 3.94 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .318 – 17th* | Never fun for your ace to be in Coors, but auto-start |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | at CHC | x | x | x | 2.12 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .329 – 7th | Should be good after being hit by a batted ball |
| Chris Sale | BOS | NYM | x | x | x | 2.16 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .308 – 20th | Inconsistent in TJ return, still an auto play, though |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | PIT | x | x | x | 2.84 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .300 – 24th | Might finish under 4.00 ERA after a 7.22 thru May |
| Chris Flexen 플렉센 | SEA | at OAK | x | x | x | 3.72 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .315 – 15th | Underrated strong season from the 26-yr old returning from KBO |
| Corey Kluber | NYY | TEX | x | x | x | 5.66 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .275 – 28th | Good matchup & 6 scoreless IP last time make him a go |
| Carlos Hernandez | KCR | at CLE | x | x | 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .296 – 25th | Imploded last start, but had 1.68 ERA in 48 IP before that | |
| Ian Anderson | ATL | at ARI | x | x | 5.82 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .284 – 27th | Brutal since IL return, but good matchup fuels interest | |
| Reynaldo López | CWS | at DET | x | x | 5.09 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .304 – 21st | Finally had the blowup, I’d still take a shot here | |
| Cole Irvin | OAK | SEA | x | x | 6.26 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .304 – 22nd | B2B gems after 3 straight duds put him back in consideration | |
| Josiah Gray | WAS | at MIA | x | x | 9.26 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .280 – 28th | HRs finally caught up to him, not a lock even w/this matchup | |
| Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | TOR | at TBR | x | x | 10.07 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .355 – 6th | Wildly inconsistent lately, this is a big risk | |
| Taylor Hearn | TEX | at NYY | x | 5.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .279 – 27th | Intriguing young arm that I’m keen on for ’22, too | ||
| Germán Márquez | COL | LAD | x | 6.38 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .276 – 29th | 3.16 ERA/1.10 WHIP in 94 IP at home | ||
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | ATL | x | 4.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .321 – 10th | Insane sked down the stretch: LAD 2x, SFG 2x, now ATL | ||
| Elieser Hernandez | MIA | WAS | x | 4.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .317 – 13th | Still too many HR, remember that when hype hits in ’22 | ||
| Miles Mikolas | STL | at MIL | x | 5.87 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .321 – 11th | Great last outing, but there’s still big risk here | ||
| Keegan Akin | BAL | at PHI | x | 4.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .317 – 16th | Heed the risk that K-BB rate implies | ||
| Michael Wacha | TBR | TOR | 4.44 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .350 – 2nd | Love the skills, but no shot I’d risk it v. TOR | |||
| Casey Mize | DET | CWS | 3.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .323 – 9th | IP mgmt. plan kills any shot at a W (8 IP in L3 GS) | |||
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | MIN | 9.12 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .304 – 20th | Just a brutal fall-off this yr, curious how it affects ’22 price | |||
| Logan Allen | CLE | KCR | 6.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .311 – 17th | Not enough upside to take on the severe downside | |||
| Tylor Megill | NYM | at BOS | 7.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .366 – 1st | HR issues have bred volatility over his L10 (2.3 HR9) | |||
| Wil Crowe | PIT | at CIN | 7.89 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .300 – 23rd | Not locked to start, but there are no viable PIT SPs anyway | |||
| Janson Junk | LAA | HOU | 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .356 – 5th | Did allow 4 UER in debut; take K-BB seriously |
Hyun Jin Ryu went on the injured list two days ago. Stripling likely starter (according to Fangraphs).
Dang, thanks for misleading me ESPN!
And now Michael Wacha is pitching in relief for Rays so assume he is not starting tomorrow.