Starting Pitcher Chart – September 21st, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.
(Pardon for the day-of posting, I wasn’t able to get it posted last night!)
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | STL | x | x | x | 4.34 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 24% K-BB | .310 – 18th | Not in his best form, but still an easy start |
| Alek Manoah | TOR | at TBR | x | x | x | 3.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .312 – 16th | Rookie arm still going strong |
| Cal Quantrill | CLE | KCR | x | x | x | 1.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .311 – 17th | 4 QS in his last 5; even went 6 IP in the non-QS |
| Tyler Mahle | CIN | PIT | x | x | x | 2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .300 – 24th | Has a wicked home/road split, but I’m still starting here |
| Julio Urías | LAD | at COL | x | x | x | 1.57 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .318 – 17th* | Still an easy start unless you’re tightly protecting ratios |
| José Urquidy | HOU | at LAA | x | x | x | 2.49 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .285 – 26th | Back on track since his IL return (3.38 ERA in 13 IP) |
| Kevin Gausman | SFG | at SDP | x | x | x | 4.34 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .272 – 30th | Not at his best lately, but still an easy start |
| Marcus Stroman | NYM | at BOS | x | x | x | 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .366 – 1st | Tough draw, but I’m not sitting him |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | LAD | x | x | x | 2.25 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .276 – 29th | Always scared of Coors, but he’s been rolling |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | TEX | x | x | x | 2.92 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .275 – 28th | Only 1 start w/>1 ER in L5, plus a great matchup |
| Josh Rogers | WAS | at MIA | x | x | x | 2.60 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .261 – 30th | 3 solid starts and an elite matchup |
| Luke Weaver | ARI | ATL | x | x | 2.49 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .321 – 10th | Closing strong to reel us back in for 2022 | |
| Tyler Alexander | DET | CWS | x | x | 2.96 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .365 – 4th | Solid 3.81 ERA as SP, but just 1-2 rec. | |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | at OAK | x | x | 3.90 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .317 – 15th | HR rate heighten volatility, but should be solid | |
| Trevor Rogers | MIA | WAS | x | x | 4.64 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .373 – 3rd | Sub-5 IP in last 4 means it’s a pass if you need Ws | |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | TOR | x | 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .350 – 2nd | Quality IP, but don’t bank on a W w/5 IP max | ||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | NYM | x | 5.13 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .308 – 20th | Feeling lucky? | ||
| Mitch Keller | PIT | at CIN | x | 4.44 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .300 – 23rd | CIN has been so inept that you could do this | ||
| Dane Dunning | TEX | at NYY | 4.62 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .328 – 8th | AVG’ing <5 IP in his 22 starts cutting any W upside | |||
| Daniel Lynch | KCR | at CLE | 5.75 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .349 – 8th | Not sure there’s enough upside to risk it | |||
| Jake Woodford | STL | at MIL | 4.64 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .321 – 11th | Paltry K% and too many HR mitigate upside | |||
| Alec Mills | CHC | MIN | 5.34 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .304 – 20th | Maybe if you’re suuuper desperate | |||
| Griffin Jax | MIN | at CHC | 9.36 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .329 – 7th | Cubs aren’t even a great matchup for RHP so easy pass | |||
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | SEA | 4.91 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .304 – 22nd | Kind of poor man’s Gonzales (but righthanded) | |||
| Packy Naughton | LAA | HOU | 4.32 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4% K-BB | .356 – 5th | I just can’t see it | |||
| Chris Ellis | BAL | at PHI | 2.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .317 – 16th | Skills too brutal to feel comfortable here | |||
| Dallas Keuchel | CWS | at DET | 10.02 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, 0% K-BB | .293 – 23rd | Does he make the playoff roster at this pt? |
What about Musgrove?
He wasn’t listed as the SP. I had undecided on ESPN and Pierce Johnson on another site. He’s an auto-start though if he’s going today, even v. SF (unless you’re in FULL SCALE ratio protection mode)