Starting Pitcher Chart – September 20th, 2022

September 20, 2022

I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Let’s go secure some titles!

Tuesday’s Starters

PITCHER	TM	OPP	THR	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Luis Castillo	SEA	at OAK	R	x	x	x	2.51 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 26% K-BB	.286 – 24th	His 25% K-BB rate since joining SEA is 11th among SPs
Nestor Cortes	NYY	PIT	L	x	x	x	3.21 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.277 – 24th	Now has 233 IP of 2.78 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20% K-BB since ’21
Dylan Cease	CWS	CLE	R	x	x	x	2.43 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.280 – 28th	CLE at just 3.5 R/G in Sept.
Shane McClanahan	TBR	HOU	L	x	x	x	1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.359 – 4th	Sharp in his return from IL
Nick Lodolo	CIN	BOS	L	x	x	x	3.31 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 30% K-BB	.338 – 7th	His 31 Ks in Sept. are tied for 3rd-most w/Bieber, deGrom
Pablo López	MIA	CHC	R	x	x	x	4.78 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.286 – 21st	Bounced back from the 8 ER meltdown v. NYM 2 starts ago
Patrick Sandoval	LAA	at TEX	L	x	x	x	1.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.328 – 13th	Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his L8
Adam Wainwright	STL	at SDP	R	x	x	x	4.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 5% K-BB	.292 – 20th	A couple 4 ER bumps, but still an easy start
Cristian Javier	HOU	at TBR	R	x	x	x	2.49 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 28% K-BB	.319 – 11th	3.07 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 23% K-BB in 22 starts (117.3 IP)
Charlie Morton	ATL	WAS	R	x	x	x	4.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.339 – 3rd	3 starts w/4 ER in L5, but still 34 Ks in 28.3 IP
Austin Voth	BAL	DET	R	x	x	x	2.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.286 – 23rd	DET still worth picking on even after Wells destruction on Mon.
Carlos Carrasco	NYM	at MIL	R	x	x	x	3.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.324 – 10th	B2B 6 IP outings afte just 2.7 IP in IL return
Ross Stripling	TOR	at PHI	R	x	x	x	2.97 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.334 – 5th	Summer Savior w/a 2.47 ERA in 16 starts since June 6th
Tyler Anderson	LAD	ARI	L	x	x	x	1.89 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.265 – 27th	14.1 CH pitch value is 2nd (Alcantara 20.8); 5th-best secondary pitch in MLB
Adrian Sampson 샘슨	CHC	at MIA	R	x	x	x	3.42 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3% K-BB	.272 – 30th	Shiny 1.59 ERA in Sept. countered by 3% K-BB, but MIA is so bad
Aaron Civale	CLE	at CWS	R	x	x	x	3.27 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.310 – 14th	Not an easy matchup, but has looked good this summer
Kyle Gibson	PHI	TOR	R		x	x	5.25 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.329 – 6th	I took the plunge on this 2-step, but I’m not very excited (ATL this wknd)
Aaron Ashby	MIL	NYM	L			x	4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.312 – 16th	1st start off IL w/a brutal matchup; you have to be desperate
Mike Clevinger	SDP	STL	R			x	7.03 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.324 – 9th	Has allowed 4+ ER In all 3 Sept. starts
Brayan Bello	BOS	at CIN	R			x	2.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.297 – 19th	A bit sharper since recall w/9% BB (13% in 1st go)
Joey Wentz	DET	at BAL	L			x	1.69 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.265 – 28th	Stats are 2 Sept. GS; not a bad Hail Mary option
Patrick Corbin	WAS	at ATL	L			x	2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.333 – 10th	Solid down the stretch, but the bad one was a major bomb.. so you know the risk
Kyle Freeland	COL	SFG	L				2.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.274 – 26th	L5 built off 3 roadies; home was 1 up, 1 down (5 ER)… feeling lucky?
Michael Grove	LAD	ARI	R				Has 3 MLB spot starts	.329 – 7th	Solid at ARI last time (5 IP/2 ER/4 K), but it’s too risky for me
Zack Greinke	KCR	MIN	R				2.39 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.286 – 22nd	Heed that WHIP
JP Sears	OAK	SEA	L				6.65 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.300 – 20th	Just a 7% K-BB in 33.3 IP w/OAK
Drey Jameson	ARI	at LAD	R				2nd MLB Start	.343 – 1st	Interesting arm, terrifying matchup
Dylan Bundy	MIN	at KCR	R				5.01 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.280 – 27th	The downside is so severe
Cole Ragans	TEX	LAA	L				7.08 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 4% K-BB	.330 – 12th	Hasn’t shown nearly enough upside to take this risk
Zach Davies	ARI	at LAD	R				4.32 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.343 – 1st	No.
Luis Ortiz	PIT	at NYY	R				2nd MLB Start	.318 – 12th	Nice skills in breakout AA season (+10 IP in AAA): 20% K-BB
Rodón fill-in	SFG	at COL	L					.426 – 3rd (at Coors)	Rodón pushed out to Fri. w/blister