Starting Pitcher Chart – September 20th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
STARTING MONDAY SEPTEMBER 20TH, I’M LOOSENING MY THRESHOLDS FOR STREAMER GAMBLES. IF YOU ARE PROTECTING RATIOS, YOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CAREFUL AND MANAGE AS YOU SEE FIT, BUT THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE CATERING MORE TO A “GO-FOR-IT” ATTITUDE OVER THESE FINAL TWO WEEKS
(for example: Peters & Fedde have excellent matchups so despite modest skills, I’m taking a shot w/them in more spots than normal).
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | TOR | at TBR | x | x | x | 1.97 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 39% K-BB | .354 – 8th | AL Cy putting the finishing touches on quite a yr |
| Carlos Rodón | CWS | at DET | x | x | x | 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .284 – 27th | Under IP mgmt. for Oct., but still an easy start |
| Framber Valdez | HOU | at LAA | x | x | x | 3.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .290 – 26th | Couple bumps last 2 starts, but no chance I’m sitting |
| Néstor Cortes Jr. | NYY | TEX | x | x | x | 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .291 – 24th | 1 of 2 RP converts who has been amazing at SP |
| Triston McKenzie^ | CLE | KCR | x | x | x | 1.09 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 31% K-BB | .296 – 26th | Curious where this young star goes in ’22 drafts |
| Ranger Suárez | PHI | BAL | x | x | x | 1.55 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .298 – 25th | Is he a full-time SP now for ’22 as well? |
| Huascar Ynoa | ATL | at ARI | x | x | x | 4.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .292 – 30th | Back on track w/a 3.58 ERA & 36 Ks in 32.7 IP since IL return |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | STL | x | x | x | 4.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .302 – 21st | 76 pitch avg. L2 starts so he can get 5-6 IP w/low BB |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | SEA | x | x | x | 4.82 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .300 – 22nd | Inconsistent of late, but still an easy start for me |
| Erick Fedde | WAS | at MIA | x | x | x | 5.26 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .295 – 28th | Great v. MIA incl. 2x in his L5 (1.04 ERA, .86 WHIP) |
| Dillon Peters | PIT | at CIN | x | x | x | 2.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .271 – 30th | Decent performance + elite matchup |
| John Means | BAL | at PHI | x | x | x | 3.30 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .330 – 11th | 1.8 HR9 fuels risk & volatility, still like the gamble |
| Carlos Hernandez^ | KCR | CLE | x | x | 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .302 – 22nd | Had 2.05 EA in L5 before 7 ER dud v. OAK; I’m going for it | |
| Brady Singer^ | KCR | at CLE | x | x | 3.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .302 – 22nd | Had allowed 1 HR in L8 before 5-HR dud at MIN last start | |
| Tyler Anderson | SEA | at OAK | x | x | 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .314 – 18th | Decent floor but low Ks keep ceiling low | |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | CIN | PIT | x | x | 5.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .294 – 29th | Modest skills catching up in L5, but matchup is juicy | |
| A.J. Alexy | TEX | at NYY | x | 3.68 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .312 – 15th | Tough matchup & venue, but there’s some appeal here | ||
| Luke Weaver | ARI | ATL | x | 2.49 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .324 – 8th | Not great if chasing Ws, but solid otherwise | ||
| Logan Allen^ | CLE | at KCR | x | 5.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .296 – 26th | The matchup offers a glint hope | ||
| Shane Baz | TBR | TOR | MLB DEBUT | .340 – 1st | MLB Debut, but not a chance I’d start him v. TOR | |||
| Jake Woodford | STL | at MIL | 4.64 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .313 – 13th | Not enough upside to gamble (<5 IP avg. in L5) | |||
| Matt Manning | DET | CWS | 5.01 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .325 – 6th | Showing glimpses; don’t forget him for ’22 | |||
| Jaime Barria | LAA | HOU | 5.23 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .336 – 2nd | 4 IP/1 ER at HOU last time, but low K & W prob. say pass | |||
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | WAS | 4.78 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .368 – 5th | Just don’t see enough upside to eat the extreme risk |
Thanks again – looks like Ynoa tomorrow instead of Touki, per the Braves’ website (with Tuesday TBD).
I see that now on ESPN, too. Changed w/in the last 30 mins… not sure why they had Touki listed. Updating now.