Starting Pitcher Chart – September 17th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
German Marquez will start Friday after the weather ppd. for Colorado on Thursday. I’d start him across the board.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | LAD | at CIN | x | x | x | 3.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .306 – 21st | 6 ER dud at SF is his only start over 4 ER this yr |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | at NYM | x | x | x | 4.32 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .337 – 3rd | Not worried about elevated ERA in L5 |
| Logan Webb | SFG | ATL | x | x | x | 2.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .312 – 16th | Putting finishing touches on a brilliant season |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | LAD | x | x | x | 3.06 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .294 – 24th | Not the best matchup, but I can’t see sitting him |
| Chris Sale | BOS | BAL | x | x | x | 2.52 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .314 – 14th | Ugly WHIP isn’t a deterrent |
| Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | TOR | MIN | x | x | x | 6.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .276 – 29th | Struggling w/2 7 ER stinkers in L5, but I’m still starting |
| Chris Flexen 플렉센 | SEA | at KCR | x | x | x | 3.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .308 – 20th | Quietly enjoying a very solid season |
| Dylan Cease | CWS | at TEX | x | x | x | 5.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .322 – 11th | Last start really pushing the ERA, 3.00 in other 4 |
| Adrian Houser | MIL | CHC | x | x | x | 1.82 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .320 – 13th | Only 6 ER in his last 7 outings (37 IP) |
| Cole Irvin | OAK | at LAA | x | x | 7.04 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 4% K-BB | .293 – 26th | Still worth throwing in favorable matchups like this | |
| Taylor Hearn | TEX | CWS | x | x | 3.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .352 – 8th | Tough matchup, but streamers are inherently risky | |
| Taijuan Walker | NYM | PHI | x | x | 5.59 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .329 – 5th | Has gone 6+ IP in 5 of last 6 | |
| Zach Plesac | CLE | at NYY | x | x | 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .324 – 8th | Underwhelmed this yr, but usable streamer | |
| Brady Singer | KCR | SEA | x | x | 3.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .293 – 25th | L7 ER shows volatility: 7, 5, 2, 1, 1, 0, 6 | |
| Luis Patiño | TBR | DET | x | x | 4.57 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .310 – 17th | Inconsistent IP totals make him a complete wildcard | |
| Elieser Hernandez | MIA | PIT | x | x | 4.74 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .290 – 27th | AVG’ing <5 IP in L5 w/a 2.2 HR9; matchup is the only positive | |
| Ian Anderson | ATL | at SFG | x | 4.71 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 1% K-BB | .330 – 4th | Don’t be afraid to play it safe here & pass | ||
| Miles Mikolas | STL | SDP | x | 6.04 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .269 – 30th | Matchup & desperation would be the only reasons to stream | ||
| Michael Pineda | MIN | at TOR | 3.92 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .355 – 1st | Never TOR is a standing rule in streaming for me | |||
| Josiah Gray | WAS | COL | 7.88 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .315 – 15th | Just too many HR to trust this late in the season | |||
| Wil Crowe | PIT | at MIA | 8.71 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .273 – 29th | Matchup not enough to lure me in here | |||
| Casey Mize | DET | at TBR | 3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .308 – 19th | Back on the managed IP plan probably rest of the way | |||
| Corey Kluber | NYY | CLE | 7.98 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .297 – 23rd | Not nearly enough upside to risk this | |||
| Madison Bumgarner | ARI | at HOU | 5.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .372 – 4th | 5 ER in each of the last 3 outings | |||
| Keegan Akin | BAL | at BOS | 4.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .298 – 22nd | Your ratios will likely be Akin if you take this gamble | |||
| Vince Velasquez | SDP | at STL | 12.23 ERA, 2.27 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .309 – 18th | He’s a Padre now?!?! Still unusable | |||
| Zach Davies | CHC | at MIL | 7.71 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .320 – 14th | No | |||
| Kyle Freeland | COL | at WAS | 5.92 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .383 – 1st | No Ks, brutal matchup, hard pass |
Love this