Starting Pitcher Chart – September 14th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | at BAL | x | x | x | 1.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 31% K-BB | .320 – 13th | L5 encompasses his time off the IL |
| Frankie Montas | OAK | at KCR | x | x | x | 1.93 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .303 -23rd | Quietly dominating down the stretch |
| Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | at SEA | x | x | x | 2.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .306 – 21st | 2H K% surge has made him a full scale fantasy ace |
| Lucas Giolito | CWS | LAA | x | x | x | 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .283 – 29th | Slam dunk start even if matchup wasn’t this good |
| Triston McKenzie | CLE | at MIN | x | x | x | 1.36 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 29% K-BB | .327 – 8th | Picking up right where he left off since IL return |
| José Berríos | TOR | TBR | x | x | x | 3.49 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 25% K-BB | .380 – 2nd | Tough matchup, but he’s an auto-start |
| Zack Greinke | HOU | at TEX | x | x | x | 3.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .324 – 11th | Rough outing @TEX last GS not deterring me |
| Marcus Stroman | NYM | STL | x | x | x | 3.26 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .295 – 26th | Has allowed >4 ER just once since May 17th |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | CLE | x | x | x | 2.25 ERA, 0.42 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .304 22nd | Elite control already on display in 2 MLB starts |
| Wade Miley | CIN | at PIT | x | x | x | 2.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .301 – 20th | Has a sub-3.00 ERA in 156 IP this year |
| Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | SDP | x | x | x | 3.66 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .284 – 28th | Disjointed 2H, but I’m still starting him here |
| Tyler Anderson | SEA | BOS | x | x | x | 4.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .308 – 18th | Hasn’t allowed >4 ER in any of L13 GS (3.51 ERA) |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | at DET | x | x | 5.68 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .309 – 20th | Hasn’t reached 4 IP in his last 3; not a must-start | |
| Luke Weaver | ARI | at LAD | x | x | 3.55 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .290 – 27th | LAD struggles give him some streamer intrigue | |
| Kyle Gibson | PHI | CHC | x | x | 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .314 – 17th | Back to normal w/PHI (4.60 ERA/1.38 WHIP) | |
| Dillon Peters | PIT | CIN | x | x | 3.38 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .264 – 29th | Great matchup & he’s been solid in 4 starts w/PIT | |
| Erick Fedde | WAS | MIA | x | 5.96 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .267 – 30th | Matchup would be the only reason to gamble | ||
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | at TOR | x | 1.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .361 – 3rd | Avg’ing <5 IP per GS in L5 + a brutal matchup | ||
| Jon Gray | COL | at ATL | x | 6.86 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .331 – 5th | Under 5 IP in 3 of L5, all of them on the road | ||
| Touki Toussaint | ATL | COL | x | 3.80 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .317 – 15th* | Matchup drives interest, but only 3 IP in last 2 GS | ||
| Jake Woodford | STL | at NYM | x | 3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .327 – 9th | 5 of 10 ER over his L5 came in 1 outing | ||
| Wily Peralta | DET | MIL | 3.86 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .337 – 4th | Heed the WHIP & K-BB rate more than the ERA | |||
| Jordan Lyles | TEX | HOU | 5.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .342 – 3rd | 5, 1, 8, 3, 1 ER in L5, but HOU too good to risk it | |||
| Logan Allen | CLE | at MIN | 5.40 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .327 – 8th | Too risky here, espec. w/MIN hitting well of late | |||
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | at WAS | 5.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .358 – 4th | 3 solid outings in a row, but I’m still reluctant | |||
| Jackson Kowar | KCR | OAK | 9.53 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 5% K-BB | .313 – 18th | Hasn’t really settled since disastrous MLB debut | |||
| Tony Gonsolin | LAD | ARI | 3.63 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 7% K-BB | .296 – 25th | Not enough IP to gamble even if skills were better | |||
| Adrian Sampson 샘슨 | CHC | at PHI | 4.42 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .323 – 11th | Stats are all 18 MLB IP this yr b/w SP & RP | |||
| Alexander Wells | BAL | NYY | 8.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .297 – 23rd | Nothing to see here | |||
| Packy Naughton | LAA | at CWS | 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 3% K-BB | .344 – 8th | Don’t get duped by the fraudulent ERA | |||
| Jake Arrieta | SDP | at SFG | 9.74 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 9% K-BB | .327 – 10th | No chance |
And, oddly enough, after poo-poohing Freddie Peralta’s last start as a must-start, I have activated him for tonight’s start against the Tigers, despite having to face the DH. Paul moved him down the list, but I moved him up to my active roster. Why? The reasons:
1. He went 1 2/3 innings longer in his 2nd start off the IL, and got his pitch count up to 81 (from 53 in his 1st start off the IL). This gives him at least a credible chance of going five innings and getting a win, assuming the Brewers let him get to 90 pitches or a bit more this time out.
2. The Tigers score fewer runs per game than the Phillies do, despite the DH in the AL and not in the NL. I know the Tigers have done better since the All-Star Break, but that hot run just after (6.3 runs per game in the 14 games right after) has settled down, and they’re down to 4.3 runs per game in their last 39 games, lower than their season average of 4.40. 6.1 runs per game in their last 11 gives me some pause, and 20 in their last 3 against Tampa is unnerving, but I’m taking the plunge in spite of that.
3. I’m playing the ballpark here, even with the Tigers scoring a lot their last 6 games at home, Comerica is a considerably better pitcher’s park than Miller. On the season, the Tigers are still scoring considerably fewer runs per game at home than on the road (4.21 runs per game at home; 4.59 on the road).
4. He improved the K/BB rate from the 1st start to the 2nd. Extreme minimal sample size and all, but 4/1 K/BB in 3 2/3 innings is better than 4/2 K/BB in 2 innings. He has a better chance to put up decent ratios tonight than he looked like had last time out.
5. The fact that I get to waive Edward Cabrera off my roster while activating Peralta had very little to do with my decision. I had enough of that less than 1:1 K/BB ratio of Cabrera’s. Not the mention then 1.8 WHIP. And the nearly 3 HR per 9. Very little to do with the decision to activate Peralta. Oh, yeah.
Offense has been markedly higher at Comerica than American this year: .714 OPS to .685 and some of that is no doubt the staffs in question, but the Brewers themselves are at .701 at home so it’s not just their elite pitching stifling offense.
There is no viable merit to #4. Going from 4 K, 2 BB to 4 K, 1 BB in an extra 2ish IP just doesn’t move the needle in any tangible way to be cited as a point.
I think most of this was written to make yourself feel comfortable about the move, which I totally get and if it gives you the push you need, that’s dope, espec. if he goes off, but I’d be reluctant to use much of this as legit reasons to make moves in most situations.
Fact is, it’s an elite pitcher against a solid-if-unspectacular team and that alone makes him worth a shot in most situations. I’m not really lower on him than 5 days ago, rather making clear that 10-teamers needn’t feel obligated at this juncture espec. if they are chasing wins on a limited starts budget.
I do appreciate the post, it’s always worth reading how others feel and go through their process of start/sit.
I view the K/BB thing as “trending in the right direction”. I acknowledged the extreme minimal sample size of it.
Actually, it’s not a justification of the move alone. It’s a sort of semi-serious justification of waiving Cabrera, who I picked up for him. Still like his future, but not his present.
Off-the-charts efficiency! He’s at 5 1/3 on just 60 pitches!!!!
Occasionally, random factors come to a player’s aid. Of course, random factors also allowed his “cousin” Wily to match him 0 for 0 until the rains came. Sooooo….no win for me.
In any event, I should be thanking your for these daily pitching charts. I can’t really use them in my dinosaur rules Roto league in the ways that most other leagues allow, but still, it’s interesting to see if your opinions on whether a good start can be expected from my starters and those of two teams I’m fighting with for first match up with mine.
In the case of Peralta, our slightly different opinions about what to do with him the last start and this one hinged on your taking a much broader overview covering many different types of situations and leagues rather than my very narrow viewpoint of the current categories and standings in my dinosaur league.