Starting Pitcher Chart – May 8th
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Getting my schedule back on track this week so the charts will be back the night before instead of morning of. There will be occasional times in-season when it’s early the following morning, but the expectation is late night the day before.
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Gallen | ARI | MIA | R | x | x | x | Matching last year’s incredible run with full skills support (2.46 SIERA) thanks to an 8 pt. K surge (35%) and cutting his BB in half (3%) | |
| 2 | Shane McClanahan | TBR | at | BAL | L | x | x | x | Almost seems like he’s coasting as the Rays are just rolling day in and day out |
| 3 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | OAK | L | x | x | x | 50 pts of BABIP & surge in HR rate are the major differences from last yr, exacerbated by a 3-HR shellacking at TEX last time out; don’t panic | |
| 4 | Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | WSN | R | x | x | x | How is he not 100% rostered even in shallower formats? No way pitching is deep enough that at least 1 tm in every lg can’t use him!! | |
| 5 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | DET | R | x | x | x | An all-formats must-start right now; he’ll eventually hit some bumps as everyone does, but the early returns are great | |
| 6 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | LAD | R | x | x | x | Tough matchup, but I can’t imagine anyone has a deep enough rotation where they sit someone like Peralta? | |
| 7 | Hunter Brown | HOU | at | LAA | R | x | x | x | 3 starts of 7 IP, 3 starts under 5 IP… easy start everywhere, just has some inconsistency to work through |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | TEX | R | x | x | x | Baseball is weird: managed a 3.20 ERA w/last yr’s 16% K-BB, it surges to 24% so far this yr and his ERA is north of 4.00 | |
| 9 | Dylan Cease | CHW | at | KCR | R | x | x | x | Has only made it more than 5 IP 2x this yr as he’s having a tougher time stranding all the BB |
| 10 | Mitch Keller | PIT | COL | R | x | x | x | Skated with 4 UER at TBR, but don’t sleep on the 8 K/1 BB; he should be more widely rostered in shallower formats | |
| 11 | Marcus Stroman | CHC | STL | R | x | x | x | I mentioned this last time out: he’s essentially his normal self & that 2.18 ERA will eventually regress to mid-3.00s or so | |
| 12 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | at | ARI | L | x | x | x | He’ll be working those 11 ER off for quite some time… that said, I’m getting back on the saddle here |
| 13 | JP Sears | OAK | at | NYY | L | x | x | 1st HR-free outing of the season last time out & he could shave a run or more off his ERA if he can continue to limit HRs (4.07 SIERA) | |
| 14 | Miles Mikolas | STL | at | CHC | R | x | x | Now has a 3.13 ERA in his L4 after allowing 5+ ER in his first three starts… let the 4.40 SIERA guide you | |
| 15 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | HOU | L | x | x | Hasn’t paid for the ugly skills meltdown w/a 5.00 SIERA looming over that ERA, will he improve the K-BB or does the ERA start to surge? | ||
| 16 | Kyle Freeland | COL | at | PIT | L | x | x | PIT bubble bursting? Just 7 runs scored in an 0-6 May so far | |
| 17 | Joey Wentz | DET | at | CLE | L | x | x | On an every other start pattern right w/1 good, 1 bad… those patterns aren’t bankable, but this matchup is streamable | |
| 18 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | at | MIL | R | x | x | Still ramping up, need a couple more starts to really get a handle on where he’s at | |
| 19 | Zack Greinke | KCR | CHW | R | Not a bad matchup, but I always just worry that there isn’t enough upside to take on the extreme risk | ||||
| 20 | Jon Gray | TEX | at | SEA | R | Could eventually stabilize back into a useful fantasy arm, but a tough start anywhere right now | |||
| 21 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | TBR | R | How do I get merked by him ever yr? He looks trustworthy to stream and then gets absolutely rolled in KC?! | ||||
| 22 | Jake Irvin | WSN | at | SFG | R | Nondescript rookie unlikely to deliver much fantasy upside |
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Gallen | ARI | MIA | R | x | x | x | 42.2 | 2.53 | 0.84 | 32% | 0.290 | 26th | |
| 2 | Shane McClanahan | TBR | at | BAL | L | x | x | x | 40 | 2.03 | 1.10 | 22% | 0.342 | 10th |
| 3 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | OAK | L | x | x | x | 33 | 4.91 | 1.18 | 19% | 0.322 | 16th | |
| 4 | Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | WSN | R | x | x | x | 38 | 2.13 | 0.82 | 19% | 0.291 | 25th | |
| 5 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | DET | R | x | x | x | 11 | 2.45 | 0.91 | 30% | 0.283 | 28th | |
| 6 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | LAD | R | x | x | x | 34.2 | 3.63 | 1.27 | 20% | 0.344 | 5th | |
| 7 | Hunter Brown | HOU | at | LAA | R | x | x | x | 34.2 | 2.60 | 1.18 | 15% | 0.331 | 9th |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | TEX | R | x | x | x | 33.2 | 4.01 | 1.07 | 24% | 0.355 | 3rd | |
| 9 | Dylan Cease | CHW | at | KCR | R | x | x | x | 35.1 | 4.58 | 1.44 | 15% | 0.299 | 21st |
| 10 | Mitch Keller | PIT | COL | R | x | x | x | 40.2 | 3.32 | 1.20 | 20% | 0.323 | 12th | |
| 11 | Marcus Stroman | CHC | STL | R | x | x | x | 41.1 | 2.18 | 1.09 | 14% | 0.312 | 18th | |
| 12 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | at | ARI | L | x | x | x | 26.1 | 5.81 | 1.67 | 14% | 0.314 | 20th |
| 13 | JP Sears | OAK | at | NYY | L | x | x | 32 | 5.06 | 1.19 | 20% | 0.319 | 18th | |
| 14 | Miles Mikolas | STL | at | CHC | R | x | x | 37.1 | 5.79 | 1.66 | 14% | 0.335 | 7th | |
| 15 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | HOU | L | x | x | 30.2 | 2.93 | 1.27 | 7% | 0.321 | 17th | ||
| 16 | Kyle Freeland | COL | at | PIT | L | x | x | 38.1 | 3.76 | 1.10 | 12% | 0.345 | 7th | |
| 17 | Joey Wentz | DET | at | CLE | L | x | x | 28.1 | 6.67 | 1.41 | 10% | 0.265 | 29th | |
| 18 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | at | MIL | R | x | x | 8 | 3.38 | 1.50 | -3% | 0.316 | 14th | |
| 19 | Zack Greinke | KCR | CHW | R | 36 | 5.25 | 1.33 | 13% | 0.287 | 27th | ||||
| 20 | Jon Gray | TEX | at | SEA | R | 30.2 | 4.40 | 1.40 | 4% | 0.315 | 17th | |||
| 21 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | TBR | R | 41 | 4.61 | 1.34 | 10% | 0.359 | 2nd | ||||
| 22 | Jake Irvin | WSN | at | SFG | R | 4.1 | 2.08 | 1.38 | -5% | 0.330 | 10th |
Get the feeling Stroman may get blown away by a Red Birds lineup that’s just about ready to explode on the road, especially at a park like Wrigley. Stroman just seemed like he’s been overperforming largely against weak lineups so far, and he was mostly not good against the Red Birds last year, especially at Wrigley, while losing a tick of velo and getting significantly fewer called strikes so far this year, which is problematic given his pedestrian whiff rate — and St Louis can certainly stack their lineup w/ tough, mostly patient lefties + Goldy against him… though I guess they still might not sit Arenado (yet?).
I’m just gonna sit him in my moderately deep salary dynasty.