Starting Pitcher Chart – May 5th, 2025

May 5, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th — a little earlier than last yr), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th which is still a pretty small sample, but we can start attacking some cold lineups or be more careful with those performing well so far), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Starter Notes May 5, 2025

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	2025 wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Cole Ragans	KCR v CHW	x	x	x	30	4.40	1.17	29%	27th	Ragans appears set to return after being skipped last wk w/a groin strain
2	Bryce Miller	SEA at ATH	x	x	x	30	3.52	1.43	9%	15th	I’m still starting him, but this 2-step is a big litmus test after the April struggles
3	Carlos Rodón	NYY v SDP	x	x	x	42	3.43	0.98	20%	15th
4	Nick Pivetta	SDP at NYY	x	x	x	35	1.78	0.82	23%	3rd	Woof, moved off a start at PIT for a trip to the Bronx… still starting him, but that’s brutal!!
5	Ben Casparius	LAD at MIA		x	x	21	2.91	0.92	24%	20th	Not locked yet, but in consideration for this start and a possible 2-step, though missing at ARI this wknd wouldn’t be the worst as long we get this one
6	Shane Smith	CHW at KCR			x	32	2.23	1.08	11%	28th	I love Smith, I bought in during spring and he’s been great so far so it’s hard not to be excited, buuuuttt the 4.30 SIERA screams caution, espec. w/0 W upside; his matchups push him over Boyd/Canning (v. MIA this wknd) while he & Singer are probably a coinflip for me: skills (Singer) v. matchups (Smith)
7	Brady Singer	CIN at ATL			x	33	3.24	1.08	18%	9th	More bankable skills underneath his success than Boyd/Canning w/3.57 SIERA right in line w/his ERA & yet this is a really tough matchup & subsequent 2-step (at HOU); since 0-7, ATL is 5th in wOBA vR & HOU is only midpack, but still not the easiest spot to pitch
8	Matthew Boyd	CHC v SFG			x	33	2.70	1.44	12%	18th	Took advantage of at PIT for bounce back after dud v. LAD, but we’re not out of the woods yet w/concerns for this skillset as evidenced by the 4.29 SIERA; there’s a world where I can skip this 2-step and still hold Boyd, espec. w/CHW looming next wk
9	Griffin Canning	NYM at ARI			x	31	2.61	1.39	13%	4th	Similar to Boyd w/smoke & mirrors aspect to early success; limited HRs (0.6) for first time ever w/a career-best 8% HR/FB, aided by a 10 pt. spike in GB rate; leaning hard on the 85% LOB and the bill will come due on the 1.39 WHIP when it regresses; long-time Canning fan, but we have to be careful here, this is ripe for a regression wk w/CHC looming on the wknd
10	Ryne Nelson	ARI v NYM			x	17	5.82	1.18	22%	11th	Getting a spot start to give Burnes a breather & I’m ready to run it! ERA built off 9 ER in 2.3 IP v. CHC in 2 hideous outings; he has a 24% K-BB and 1.22 ERA in his other 5 outings (14.7 IP)
11	AJ Smith-Shawver	ATL v CIN			x	19	4.26	1.68	15%	8th	Hasn’t allowed >3 ER in any of his 4 starts, though just 19 IP in that time; IP is slowly rising w/each start and it gets better on the wknd w/at PIT
12	Jake Irvin	WSN v CLE			x	42	4.01	1.13	13%	22nd	Wiped away a lot of his good work w/a dud at PHI, but he was a very narrow start for that one anyway so I don’t hold it against him too much; he’s a pure streamer and CLE hasn’t been scary enough to run from
13	Luis Severino	ATH v SEA			x	43	3.30	1.17	11%	2nd	He’s pitching well w/4 straight HR-free gms, incl. 2 at home; doesn’t mean his HR issues are fixed and SEA is sneakily crushing righties
14	Luis L. Ortiz	CLE at WSN			x	32	4.78	1.41	14%	17th	Rebounded from NYY dud so I don’t mind a spin here, but the 2-step is no lock w/PHI this wknd
15	Landen Roupp	SFG at CHC			x	30	5.10	1.63	16%	5th	BB have returned, after a 2% in ST he’s up to 10% w/3+ in 4 of 6 starts;
16	Ronel Blanco	HOU at MIL			x	28	5.08	1.31	10%	19th	Has stabilized after slow start w/3.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in L4, but 10% K-BB and 2.1 HR9 don’t inspire a ton of confidence as he’s once again riding a tiny BABIP (.179 during this run)
17	Sandy Alcantara	MIA v LAD				26	8.31	1.65	2%	1st	You have to eat this one to get the at CHW on the weekend in weekly lgs… do you have the stomach for it?
18	Tobias Myers	MIL v HOU				7	5.14	1.86	-3%	23rd	Pulled after 2 in last start so Friday bullpen inning was just to get some work and not removal from the rotation; still have some long-term interest, but don’t love the 2-step (at TBR this wknd)
19	Miles Mikolas	STL v PIT				29	4.66	1.34	6%	25th
20	Carmen Mlodzinski	PIT at STL				26	6.58	1.81	10%	12th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

2-Start Board

2-Start Chart for the Week of May 5th

RANK	PITCHER	TYPE	MATCHUPS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	Pitch+
1	Zack Wheeler	1	at TBR/at CLE	44	3.48	1.00	28%	105
2	Cole Ragans	1	CHW/BOS	30.2	4.40	1.17	29%	101
3	Chris Sale	1	CIN/at PIT	35.1	4.84	1.42	24%	102
4	Nathan Eovaldi	2	at BOS/at DET	42.2	2.11	0.77	26%	106
5	Nick Pivetta	2	at NYY/at COL	35.1	1.78	0.82	23%	112
6	Carlos Rodón	2	SDP/at ATH	42	3.43	0.98	20%	96
7	Drew Rasmussen	2	PHI/MIL	30.2	2.64	0.98	19%	105
8	Pablo López	2	BAL/SFG	28	2.25	1.00	20%	121
9	Seth Lugo	2	CHW/BOS	44	3.07	1.05	13%	96
10	Bryce Miller	2	at ATH/TOR	30.2	3.52	1.43	9%	88
11	Ben Casparius	3	at MIA/at ARI	21.2	2.91	0.92	24%	106
12	Lucas Giolito	3	TEX/at KCR	6	4.50	1.17	20%	114
13	AJ Smith-Shawver	3	CIN/at PIT	19	4.26	1.68	15%	93
14	Brady Singer	3	at ATL/at HOU	33.1	3.24	1.08	18%	100
15	Shane Smith	3	at KCR/MIA	32.1	2.23	1.08	11%	102
17	Zac Gallen	4	NYM/LAD	38.1	4.93	1.30	15%	102
18	Landen Roupp	4	at CHC/at MIN	30	5.10	1.63	16%	107
19	Jackson Jobe	4	at COL/TEX	24	3.38	1.33	4%	94
19	Griffin Canning	4	at ARI/CHC	31	2.61	1.39	13%	103
20	Matthew Boyd	4	SFG/at NYM	33.1	2.70	1.44	12%	98
21	Luis Severino	4	SEA/NYY	43.2	3.30	1.17	11%	96
22	Sean Burke	4	at KCR/MIA	33	4.91	1.36	7%	97
23	Cade Povich	4	at MIN/at LAA	29.2	5.16	1.65	10%	102
24	Ronel Blanco	4	at MIL/CIN	28.1	5.08	1.31	10%	100
25	Tobias Myers	4	HOU/at TBR	7	5.14	1.86	-3%	83
26	Luis L. Ortiz	5	at WAS/PHI	32	4.78	1.41	14%	94
27	Eric Lauer 라우어	5	at LAA/at SEA	4	4.50	1.25	12%	96
28	Sandy Alcantara	5	LAD/at CHW	26	8.31	1.65	2%	90
29	Tyler Anderson	5	TOR/BAL	33.2	2.67	1.04	9%	98
30	Andrew Abbott	6	at ATL/at HOU	19	2.84	1.26	14%	87
31	Chase Dollander	6	DET/SDP	25	6.48	1.52	13%	91
32	Carmen Mlodzinski	6	at STL/ATL	26	6.58	1.81	10%	105
33	Miles Mikolas	6	PIT/at WAS	29	4.66	1.34	6%	108

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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alang3131982Member since 2016

23 days ago

Somewhat odd question (we have start limits). I tend to be less conservative at the beginning of hte weeks because of rainouts.

that said, you’d greatly prefer the Blanco start at home against Cincy to at MIL, right? If not those, I’d be looking at Kikuchi or Povich to fill out my starts this week

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to alang3131982

ya I think I prefer Ronel at home if I’m only choosing one of ’em