Starting Pitcher Chart – May 5th

May 5, 2023

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

New Feature Alert: I’ve added a chart of the previous night’s starters with a quick hit take on their performance. That way I don’t have to wait 5 days to give insight on how it went. Let me know what you think about it!

Friday, May 5th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	at	SDP	L	x	x	x	Still unquestionably one of the best in the gm
2	Luis Castillo	SEA		HOU	R	x	x	x	Career-best 6% BB rate is helping fuel the beautiful sub-1.00 WHIP
3	Zack Wheeler	PHI		BOS	R	x	x	x	Hasn’t been an unmitigated ace, but there are no reasons to be all that concerned, either
4	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	SEA	R	x	x	x	Kinda quietly doing great despite the 5 HR in his L4 starts
5	Max Fried	ATL		BAL	L	x	x	x	Dialed in with just 1 ER in his first 4 starts
6	Chris Sale	BOS	at	PHI	L	x	x	x	Riding a 1-up, 1-down pattern so far, but skills say he’s just fine (3.84 SIERA)
7	Yu Darvish	SDP		LAD	R	x	x	x	Allowed 3 HR but only 4 ER in the launching pad of Mexico City
8	Hunter Greene	CIN		CHW	R	x	x	x	The ugly .394 BABIP has his WHIP soaring but don’t lose sight of the markedly improved HR rate w/just 1 allowed all season
9	Corbin Burnes	MIL	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	Has run his K-BB back up to 17% in his L4 after a meager 2% in his first 2
10	Bailey Ober	MIN	at	CLE	R	x	x	x	With a long-term opportunity, he should be picked up everywhere
11	Justin Steele	CHC		MIA	L	x	x	x	Won’t sustain at this level but there is some K upside w/a career-best 12% SwStr
12	Jordan Montgomery	STL		DET	L	x	x	x	The one good Cardinals SP… and I’d start him everywhere despite the difficult matchup
13	Chris Bassitt	TOR	at	PIT	R	x	x	x	BB are uncharacteristically high, but he does have a 3.03 ERA & 1.24 WHIP since that 9 ER opening dud
14	Lance Lynn	CHW	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	Maddeningly inconsistent and yet there’s a path forward if he can coral that 2.2 HR rate
15	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	ARI	R		x	x	Just 1 HR in his L4 has made him one of the key early pickups of the season
16	Kodai Senga	NYM		COL	R		x	x	At least 3 BB in each of his 5 starts makes him a big WHIP negative right now so he’s not being started everywhere
17	Yonny Chirinos	TBR		NYY	R		x	x	I wish they’d keep an opener with him and pump up his W expectancy; as-is I think he’s worth at least a hold
18	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		WSN	R		x	x	The 5.04 SIERA says to be leery of the 3.06 ERA thanks in large part to a 2x BB rate from last yr at 14%
19	Sean Manaea	SFG		MIL	L			x	MIL can be picked on w/LHP right now, but Manaea hasn’t been good enough to roll out everywhere
20	Dane Dunning	TEX	at	LAA	R			x	deGrom fill-in could find some deep lg relevance if he can push his K-BB back toward 12-13%
21	Peyton Battenfield	CLE		MIN	R			x	Another shot to generate some Ks w/that 13% SwStr, though he did develop a BB issue w/a 15% rate; talent is there for this risky spot start
22	Matthew Boyd	DET	at	STL	L			x	Could see using him in some deeper formats if I had no one else
23	Dean Kremer	BAL	at	ATL	R				Velo is up but skills are similar to last yr’s; needs to curb the homers to work back toward his 4.68 SIERA
24	Rich Hill	PIT		TOR	L				Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last 4 starts, but allowed 7 ER the start before that so the risk is massive & I don’t love this matchup
25	Tyler Anderson	LAA		TEX	L				3 starts of 5+ ER, 2 starts of 0-1 ER… feeling lucky?
26	Antonio Senzatela	COL	at	NYM	R				I just don’t see any real upside
27	Brad Keller	KCR		OAK	R				That 0% K-BB isn’t a misprint and will eventually push his ERA up toward 5.00 if he doesn’t improve quite a bit
28	Jhony Brito	NYY	at	TBR	R				More standard streamer than next big breakout and this certainly isn’t the spot for him
29	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	CHC	R				4+ BB in 4 of his 6 starts has left him with a 20% BB rate
30	Kyle Muller	OAK	at	KCR	L				I just don’t see any real upside

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Friday, May 5th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	at	SDP	L	x	x	x	38	1.89	0.76	25%	0.353	6th
2	Luis Castillo	SEA		HOU	R	x	x	x	34.2	1.82	0.92	22%	0.290	24th
3	Zack Wheeler	PHI		BOS	R	x	x	x	32.2	3.86	1.22	21%	0.343	6th
4	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	SEA	R	x	x	x	33.2	3.48	1.13	20%	0.314	17th
5	Max Fried	ATL		BAL	L	x	x	x	20	0.45	0.90	19%	0.339	11th
6	Chris Sale	BOS	at	PHI	L	x	x	x	29.1	6.75	1.47	19%	0.302	21st
7	Yu Darvish	SDP		LAD	R	x	x	x	30	3.60	1.20	18%	0.352	2nd
8	Hunter Greene	CIN		CHW	R	x	x	x	28	2.89	1.43	23%	0.284	26th
9	Corbin Burnes	MIL	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	33.2	4.01	1.13	12%	0.350	4th
10	Bailey Ober	MIN	at	CLE	R	x	x	x	11.1	1.59	1.06	11%	0.283	28th
11	Justin Steele	CHC		MIA	L	x	x	x	36.1	1.24	0.96	15%	0.340	10th
12	Jordan Montgomery	STL		DET	L	x	x	x	35	3.34	1.23	16%	0.356	5th
13	Chris Bassitt	TOR	at	PIT	R	x	x	x	33	5.18	1.24	9%	0.339	9th
14	Lance Lynn	CHW	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	32.2	7.16	1.59	18%	0.302	20th
15	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	ARI	R		x	x	33.2	2.67	1.28	13%	0.347	5th
16	Kodai Senga	NYM		COL	R		x	x	26	4.15	1.58	12%	0.315	16th
17	Yonny Chirinos	TBR		NYY	R		x	x	14	0.64	0.57	12%	0.285	25th
18	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		WSN	R		x	x	32.1	3.06	1.30	9%	0.296	21st
19	Sean Manaea	SFG		MIL	L			x	18.1	7.85	1.64	12%	0.279	28th
20	Dane Dunning	TEX	at	LAA	R			x	20.1	1.77	0.84	8%	0.321	12th
21	Peyton Battenfield	CLE		MIN	R			x	17.1	4.67	1.56	4%	0.320	15th
22	Matthew Boyd	DET	at	STL	L			x	24.2	5.47	1.46	10%	0.340	9th
23	Dean Kremer	BAL	at	ATL	R				29.2	6.67	1.58	12%	0.328	11th
24	Rich Hill	PIT		TOR	L				32.1	4.18	1.39	13%	0.326	16th
25	Tyler Anderson	LAA		TEX	L				26.2	5.74	1.58	6%	0.333	13th
26	Antonio Senzatela	COL	at	NYM	R				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.334	10th
27	Brad Keller	KCR		OAK	R				30.1	3.56	1.58	0%	0.283	27th
28	Jhony Brito	NYY	at	TBR	R				22.2	5.56	1.41	6%	0.362	1st
29	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	CHC	R				27	4.67	1.74	9%	0.339	8th
30	Kyle Muller	OAK	at	KCR	L				28.2	6.28	1.92	4%	0.314	19th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Wednesday, May 3rd Starter Review

Paul’s RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	NOTE
1	Max Scherzer	NYM	at	DET	Wonder if he was being super cautious about using rosin after getting hassled & suspended for it
2	Logan Gilbert	SEA	at	OAK	A trip to OAK is like a bingo free space and Gilbert took advantage of the opportunity
3	Shane McClanahan	TBR		PIT	Almost on autopilot right now w/another sub-100 pitch gem
4	Shohei Ohtani	LAA	at	STL	A couple HRs saddled him with a modest 5 IP/4 ER, but 13 Ks salvaged the start
5	Kyle Wright	ATL	at	MIA	Left early with injury and it’s looking like this could be a rough season
6	Logan Webb	SFG	at	HOU	Kind of a righty NL version of Framber Valdez just pumping out strong outings
7	Shane Bieber	CLE	at	NYY	Ks just aren’t there (4), hard to argue with 8 IP/2 ER, though
8	Framber Valdez	HOU		SFG	Excellent 6% BB rate is being obscured by hit rate regression, yielding the 1.16 WHIP as last yr
9	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	WSN	QS in 6 of 7; not much different than normal, though, so heed the 3.91 SIERA
10	Dylan Cease	CHW		MIN	BABIP regression w/his 40-grade command has fueled a 7.11 ERA in his L4; still starting everywhere
11	Andrew Heaney	TEX		ARI	Chronic HR issue strikes again w/3 in this dud outing
12	Louie Varland	MIN	at	CHW	Standout potential pickup didn’t dominate, still targeting him in FAAB this wknd
13	Alek Manoah	TOR	at	BOS	3 unearned runs saved him here; still not himself, but I’m not sitting him
14	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	at	TEX	Tough debut as he was blasted for 4 HR; still very interested in the promising prospect
15	Aaron Nola	PHI	at	LAD	A 6.3 IP/4 ER trip to LAD isn’t too bad
16	Braxton Garrett	MIA		ATL	They tried to let him work through a nightmare 7-run 2nd inning but it just wasn’t his day (11 ER)
17	Joey Lucchesi	NYM	at	DET	A 3-R HR in the 1st inning sank his outing; DET isn’t easy for lefties
18	Kyle Gibson	BAL	at	KCR	Process v. results — this was a good stream choice, just didn’t pan out bc streamers are inherently risky (6 ER, 10 H)
19	Clarke Schmidt	NYY		CLE	Showed some flashes per usual, under 5 IP in 5 of 7 starts
20	Miles Mikolas	STL		LAA	One out shy of a QS; 1st BB-free outing since his season opener
21	Joey Wentz	DET		NYM	Three outings of 5 ER thanks in part to a 1.9 HR rate make him tough to trust
22	Seth Lugo	SDP		CIN	Shift back to the rotation is going well; would love to see the 8% SwStr tick up a bit to support his 22% K
23	Gavin Stone	LAD		PHI	Rough debut and lack of role certainty will keep weekend bids in check
24	Mitch Keller	PIT	at	TBR	Survived a trip to TB w/4 of his 5 runs being unearned; love the 8 Ks
25	JP Sears	OAK		SEA	3 solid outings in his L4, but downside risk & lack of W potential make him a tough stream
26	Kyle Freeland	COL		MIL	He has good outings in Coors but it’s always hard to trust throwing anyone there
27	Nick Pivetta	BOS		TOR	Solid outing despite 2 HR, first time reaching 6 IP this yr
28	Michael Lorenzen	DET		NYM	Love the 7 IP/1 ER, but just 1 K and 6 swinging strikes are very underwhelming
29	Eric Lauer	MIL	at	COL	Got lucky w/all 4 runs being unearned
30	Jake Irvin	WSN		CHC	Only allowed 1 ER in his MLB debut as he was able to work around 4 BB
31	Luis Cessa	CIN	at	SDP	About as expected
32	Zack Greinke	KCR		BAL	Upside just not really worth it, but there will be occasional gems (5 IP/0 ER)

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Thursday, May 4th Starter Review

Paul’s RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	NOTE
1	Pablo López	MIN	at	CHW	Pitched beautifully in the matchup of the day v. Giolito
2	Kevin Gausman	TOR	at	BOS	Uh oh, here comes the BABIP trouble again
3	George Kirby	SEA	at	OAK	Another low-K outing (2), but can’t argue with 7 IP/3 ER
4	Zach Eflin	TBR		PIT	Getting better with every outing
5	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	DET	Settled after a pair of 1st inn. HRs for solid season debut
6	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	at	KCR	KC obliterated Rodriguez and Kyle Gibson, ruining the big plans their fantasy mgrs had
7	Jesús Luzardo	MIA		ATL	Did fine in a difficult matchup
8	Lucas Giolito	CHW		MIN	Has a 2.20 ERA in 5 starts since that 7 ER dud in PIT
9	Griffin Canning	LAA	at	STL	Tough outing, but the 14% SwStr keeps me intrigued enough to hold
10	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET		NYM	7 ER in his first 2 starts, just 2 in 34.7 IP since then
11	Jameson Taillon	CHC	at	WSN	This was essentially his rehab outing coming back from a groin injury (3 IP)
12	Jack Flaherty	STL		LAA	Oof, that’ll put Flaherty on a lot of waiver wires… I’d probably just bench him
13	Vince Velasquez	PIT	at	TBR	Left early w/elbow discomfort, he’s confident he’ll be fine… stay tuned
14	Wade Miley	MIL	at	COL	Survived Coors, but I can’t imgaine anyone was really streaming him
15	Brayan Bello	BOS		TOR	I was never taking this risk, but he did well; not ready to start him at ATL next wk
16	Dylan Dodd	ATL	at	MIA	Solid QS despite 3 BB and just 1 K
17	Patrick Corbin	WSN		CHC	Where the hell did that come from?!
18	Drew Rucinski 루친스키	OAK		SEA	No one started him
19	Jordan Lyles	KCR		BAL	No one started him
20	Connor Seabold	COL		MIL	No one started him

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Roman AjzenMember since 2020

1 year ago

Love these daily reports. Why is facing DET a tough matchup for Montgomery? Their wRC+ vs LHP is average and it’s clearly BABIP driven.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to Roman Ajzen

Average? It’s 140 which is 3rd in the league over L30 days. It includes a .190. They’re hitting vL pretty well

stevemcf18

Reply to Paul Sporer

Det is definitely swinging the bats a lot better the last few weeks but their offense overall is still dreadful. Sample sizes still pretty small against lefties so maybe just seems odd to hear the words “detroit offense” and “tough matchup” in the same sentence

Are we talking about the same Detroit Tigers, the ones who have the second worst offense in baseball by wRC+? I’m looking at the Fangraph team stats and selected the “vs L” split, which shows DET having a 98 wRC+ on the season (in only 220 ABs). On a seasonal basis their only above average rate stat is babip and given how bad they are against RHP, even if they have posted a strong line vs LHP, I’d be inclined to disregard it.

Look, it’s a last 30 pull and they rank high. It’s automated data, I’m not pretending the Tigers rule, but they’re hittin lefties lately. Your last line doesn’t really make any sense… how they perform vR doesn’t really have a bearing on how they perform vL

Fair enough, maybe they sucked in their first few games vs LHP and it’s dragging them down overall but not by your metric. I get how splits work, but can any team’s true talent be 80 wRC vs RHP and 140 vs LHP? Given their track record, I’m taking the under and starting Montgomery. We’ll know tonight who was right 🙂