Starting Pitcher Chart – May 28th, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then usually a note about them (some days are board-only). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shorthand for shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
Just writing up the 1 and 2-x guys tonight! Will answer questions on anyone else if you have them, though.
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Starter Notes May 28, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | PHI v ATL | x | x | x | 70 | 2.42 | 0.88 | 28% | 8th | |
| 2 | Hunter Greene | CIN at KCR | x | x | x | 49 | 2.54 | 0.85 | 27% | 26th | |
| 3 | Tyler Mahle | TEX v TOR | x | x | x | 60 | 1.80 | 1.03 | 9% | 24th | |
| 4 | Paul Skenes | PIT at ARI | x | x | x | 68 | 2.36 | 0.95 | 19% | 1st | |
| 5 | Pablo López | MIN at TBR | x | x | x | 50 | 2.31 | 0.97 | 22% | 21st | |
| 6 | Drew Rasmussen | TBR v MIN | x | x | x | 52 | 2.60 | 1.00 | 15% | 19th | |
| 7 | Matthew Boyd | CHC v COL | x | x | x | 55 | 3.42 | 1.32 | 17% | 29th | |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | MIL v BOS | x | x | x | 60 | 2.55 | 1.12 | 15% | 5th | |
| 9 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY at LAA | x | x | x | 37 | 4.58 | 1.34 | 12% | 22nd | |
| 10 | Griffin Canning | NYM v CHW | x | x | x | 50 | 2.88 | 1.32 | 12% | 30th | |
| 11 | Zac Gallen | ARI v PIT | x | x | x | 61 | 5.25 | 1.36 | 13% | 29th | |
| 12 | AJ Smith-Shawver | ATL at PHI | x | x | x | 41 | 3.67 | 1.42 | 12% | 10th | |
| 13 | Noah Cameron | KCR v CIN | x | x | 19 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 11% | 17th | I knew that 5 BB debut was anomalous; just 1 in 13 IP since | |
| 14 | Landen Roupp | SFG at DET | x | x | 52 | 3.63 | 1.40 | 14% | 11th | BB caused issues in Apr, but he has just 4 in 4 May starts aiding him to a 1.64 ERA/1.09 WHIP though it comes w/15% K and of course, DET is tough so not a slamdunk start | |
| 15 | Shane Smith | CHW at NYM | x | x | 53 | 2.36 | 1.11 | 14% | 13th | Moved to Wed., here’s the comment from yesterday — Deserves so much better than 1 W, alas that’s life as a White Sock right now | |
| 16 | Eric Lauer | TOR at TEX | x | x | 16 | 3.31 | 1.10 | 17% | 27th | Solid in L3 outings (2 GS/1 relief app.) w/a 3.00 ERA & 1.08 WHIP; reached 85 pitches last time out, too, so he’s stretched out | |
| 17 | George Kirby | SEA v WSN | x | x | 3 | 12.27 | 1.91 | 16% | 18th | Bumpy season debut at HOU can be forgiven; WSN not quite as scary so I’m slotting him in for my deep lgs | |
| 18 | Miles Mikolas | STL at BAL | x | x | 51 | 3.51 | 1.17 | 7% | 12th | Since the 8 ER at BOS: 2.09 ERA/1.02 WHIP in 8 starts (43.3 IP) | |
| 19 | Jackson Jobe | DET v SFG | x | 44 | 4.06 | 1.42 | 6% | 17th | Mostly a Win chase bc the 2.78 ERA over his L3 is not supported by the skills at all: 1.36 WHIP, 8% K-BB | ||
| 20 | Luis Severino | ATH at HOU | x | 65 | 4.11 | 1.26 | 11% | 20th | INSANE home/road split: 6.20 ERA/1.45 WHIP at home | 0.72/0.96 on the road though I’m still being cautious here w/HOU sitting 7 in wOBA vR over the L30 | ||
| 21 | Brayan Bello | BOS at MIL | x | 35 | 4.08 | 1.70 | 4% | 25th | Solid matchup, but hasn’t reached 5 IP in any of his L4 | ||
| 22 | Cade Povich | BAL v STL | x | 46 | 4.86 | 1.45 | 13% | 12th | Maybe finding his footing a bit of late w/a 3.86 ERA/1.04 WHIP in his L5 and the 1 bad start was 5 ER in one inning at MIN | ||
| 23 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD at CLE | x | 6 | 7.50 | 1.50 | -4% | 19th | Don’t just go off name value here… this is a YOLO throw if anything | ||
| 24 | Kyle Hart | SDP v MIA | x | 21 | 6.00 | 1.38 | 11% | 15th | 3 of his 5 starts have been solid, but the other 2 were horrid; matchup drives interest, though we saw them jump on Kolek yesterday | ||
| 25 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA v NYY | 59 | 3.17 | 1.49 | 9% | 1st | ||||
| 26 | Slade Cecconi | CLE v LAD | 11 | 3.27 | 1.09 | 27% | 2nd | ||||
| 27 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA at SDP | 47 | 8.04 | 1.57 | 7% | 16th | ||||
| 28 | Trevor Williams | WSN at SEA | 49 | 6.39 | 1.56 | 12% | 9th | ||||
| 29 | Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU v ATH | 12 | 6.57 | 2.03 | 6% | 14th | ||||
| 30 | Tanner Gordon | COL at CHC | 12 | 4.38 | 1.38 | 12% | 4th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Roupp’s swinging srike rate went from 12%+ in April to 6%+ in May, and his K rate is sub 6 per 9 in May. So the reduced walk rate seems to have been somewhat a tradeoff. Did batters start laying off the curve? His siera went from 3.77 to 4.22. Still, a 3.60s-ish ERA with a 3.60s-ish xFIP on the year. Not too shabby, but you’d love to see the K’s and control combined.
So naturally he immediately goes out and gets a 13.6% swinging strike rate. His first time above 10% in 7 starts (and at that he’d only been above 8% twice). I know these things can be fairly random, but good to see him bump it up.
Ugh Sandy… I held him in a keeper league through the whole TJ and now I don’t even know what to do.
I’m probably still holding in case he finds a groove, but ya TJ returners are tough. I fell for him a bit, too, and convinced myself he could forgo some of the command & control issues that TJ returners often face. I was wrong there!
As I noted in the comments section of his last start, he has a really good schedule coming up. Pads today is not as bad as it seems – they’ve been pretty average offensively this year, though they don’t strike out much. He then gets COL, @PIT, @WSN, so 2 really good matchups and then an average-ish Nats lineup.
If you like pitch-modeling, his Location+ has been trending up and at 100+ in 3 of his last 4 starts leading to good overall Pitching+ numbers.
OTOH, you can’t ignore that the Ks are down, BB up and hard contact up from before TJ, so not good.
His big problem has been 3rd time through. He goes .777 OPS 1st time, .702 OPS 2nd time and then a super-ugly 1.052 OPS 3rd time. Or looked at by inning, he goes: .905, .639, .807, .535, .866, 1.270
I don’t know, huge mixed bag with him. Everything could snap back in place and you have a dominant starter or he could just flounder all year. I scooped him in my redraft league and like you, am just undecided on what exactly to do. . . .
I’m benching AJSS today in 10s vs the Phillies. Paul is a braver man than I.
I don’t think that’s a terrible idea by any stretch. It’s hard sometimes w/just having the X’s when it doesn’t always mean must-start. I was focused on the 1-2 X guys for comments last night, but should’ve added a comment for him that while he has 3, sitting him if you’re worried about Philly is totally fair
Thanks, good points, and thanks for these columns! Also, my league is H2H weekly 6×6, with K/BB as the 6th pitching stat. (Minimum 30 innings) So I’m trying quality over quantity, and willing to give up a few total Ks to hopefully keep three good ratios.
With the postponement, same decision tomorrow. Paul, is there any data that doubleheaders are better or worse for borderline pitchers like AJSS?