Starting Pitcher Chart – May 26th
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
|1||George Kirby||SEA||PIT||x||x||x||58.1||2.62||1.01||18%||26th||Remarkable results even though the Ks haven’t materialized as his drafters likely hoped|
|2||Mitch Keller||PIT||at||SEA||x||x||x||62.2||2.44||0.97||25%||19th||More is less w/the fastball as he’s dropped the usage 10 pts & surged in performance (.507 OPS is 3rd best on heat, min. 70 BF)|
|3||Hunter Brown||HOU||at||OAK||x||x||x||50.2||3.20||1.26||19%||29th||What a dream getting OAK in back-to-back starts|
|4||Jon Gray||TEX||at||BAL||x||x||x||50.2||3.02||1.16||10%||11th||Has quickly shaved his ERA from 4.40 to 3.02 over the last 3 starts a solid 20% K-BB and 0.90 ERA|
|5||Kevin Gausman||TOR||at||MIN||x||x||x||63||3.14||1.08||28%||10th||Probably deserves even better than the 3.14 ERA he has so far|
|6||Chris Sale||BOS||at||ARI||x||x||x||50.1||5.01||1.17||23%||15th||Looking strong of late with a 3.05 ERA & 0.89 WHIP in 38 IP with 43 Ks|
|7||Reid Detmers||LAA||MIA||x||x||x||40.2||4.87||1.43||20%||8th||Maybe the regression of Bieber’s LOB rate can shift over to Detmers who should be able to improve upon his tiny 61% mark|
|8||Justin Steele||CHC||CIN||x||x||x||61.1||2.20||1.01||15%||9th||Has traded Ks for BB improvement so while his K9 makes it look like a plummet (1.7 K drop), it’s a 2.5 pt drop in K%|
|9||Jesús Luzardo||MIA||at||LAA||x||x||x||56.1||3.83||1.37||19%||16th||Allowed 1 HR in his first 4 starts (0.4) and then 7 over his last 6 (1.9)|
|10||Freddy Peralta||MIL||SFG||x||x||x||52||4.15||1.31||14%||16th||Rocking a hot 0% K-BB in his last 2 starts at STL & at TBR which isn’t cool… obviously not sitting him anywhere, though|
|11||Shane Bieber||CLE||STL||x||x||x||64.1||3.08||1.21||12%||2nd||I know the skills are light for this ERA and his 81% LOB will dip, but I’m not sure this is just who he is going forward so I’m sticking with him|
|12||Matthew Liberatore||STL||at||CLE||x||x||x||6||3.00||1.33||11%||30th||Looked good in his season debut w/improved stuff from last yr; should have staying power if they commit to him at SP|
|13||Joe Musgrove||SDP||at||NYY||x||x||x||24||6.75||1.58||14%||13th||Hasn’t fully found his groove, but has had to face LAD x2 and BOS since the Mexico City nightmare|
|14||Alex Wood||SFG||at||MIL||x||x||x||20||4.05||1.45||14%||27th||Good spot to stream him; HRs are his biggest risk but MIL’s .138 ISO isn’t best-suited to take advantage of him|
|15||Max Scherzer||NYM||at||COL||x||x||x||33.2||4.01||1.19||13%||6th||I’m going for the World Record of recommending guys pitching in Coors this week!|
|16||Lance Lynn||CHW||at||DET||x||x||57.1||6.28||1.47||19%||23rd||Soft spot in the schedule has helped (CLE, KCR before this) him get back on track… if he’s great here, are you trusting him for LAA next wk??|
|17||Louie Varland||MIN||TOR||x||x||28||4.18||1.25||20%||4th||Feels a bit like early career Bailey Ober w/the impressive core skills but a considerable HR issue which does make this matchup a bit scarier; I’m still in for most lgs|
|18||Jared Shuster||ATL||PHI||x||x||19.2||5.49||1.42||4%||29th||Splendid outing last time out v. SEA (6 IP/1 H/1 ER/7 Ks) & wasn’t terrible v. TEX before that (5 IP/3 ER)… I’ll ride the favorable matchup here|
|19||Patrick Corbin||WSN||at||KCR||x||x||56.1||4.47||1.38||10%||14th||Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his L7, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP but a meager 12% K-BB… I’m rolling with him|
|20||Hunter Greene||CIN||at||CHC||x||50||4.68||1.50||22%||15th||After allowing 1 HR in his first 6 starts, he has allowed 11 in the last 6 and his 1.4 HR is still an improvement over last yr’s 1.7|
|21||Brandon Pfaadt||ARI||BOS||x||20||7.65||1.55||7%||7th||HRs have smoothed out w/just 1 in his L2 starts after 6 in the first two; there’s still plenty to like about this rookie arm|
|22||Grayson Rodriguez||BAL||TEX||42||6.21||1.64||17%||9th||The 4.03 SIERA gives some hope, though until the 2.1 HR and .363 BABIP improve he won’t get anywhere near that SIERA|
|23||Taijuan Walker||PHI||at||ATL||46.2||5.79||1.44||10%||18th||Maybe in the best of matchups, but no shot against Atlanta|
|24||Randy Vásquez||NYY||SDP||#N/A||#N/A||#N/A||#N/A||25th||Making his debut from Triple-A where he had a 4.85 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 14% K-BB in 43 IP|
|25||Joey Wentz||DET||CHW||38.2||7.45||1.63||10%||11th||Has shown some elements over his 71 MLB innings but also faaaarrr too much risk to consider him in many spots|
|26||Noah Syndergaard||LAD||at||TBR||41.1||5.88||1.33||14%||3rd||Hard to trust him in even the lightest of matchups let alone one of the absolute toughest|
|27||James Kaprielian||OAK||HOU||28||8.68||1.86||8%||27th||Remember when he was kinda deece back in 2021? Feels like ages ago!|
|28||Connor Seabold||COL||NYM||31.2||5.97||1.64||9%||20th||No thanks|
|29||Jordan Lyles||KCR||WSN||56.2||7.15||1.34||9%||17th||No format or situation where I land on a Lyles start|
|30||Jalen Beeks||TBR||LAD||25||4.68||1.20||9%||10th||Likely just opening for a couple innings here|
You’ll get to recommend another guy in Coors with Verlander going tomorrow!
But, just a reminder that Coors is undefeated:
Scherzer at Coors – 31.0 IP, 6.39 ERA or 131 PA and a .902 OPS
Verlander has only made 2 starts there and has done much better with a 1.20 ERA and .425 OPS but he also last pitched there in 2017 (& before that 2011).
Totally get that Coors is undefeated, but I’m just not sitting Max or JV
I absolutely agree. But you’re always crossing your fingers when you start a guy at Coors. You just never know when a game is going to get away from a guy, even an elite guy.
Kershaw is another one – career 2.49 ERA but 4.82 at Coors in 155 IP so not that small of a sample size. That’s his highest ERA by a lot for anywhere he’s pitched more than once (the only place higher is the old Shea Stadium – he made one start there his rookie year and gave up 4 ER in 3.2 IP). His ERA everywhere other than Coors is 2.34 so Coors has single-handedly raised his career ERA by 0.15. (Although, Kershaw is 11-8 in 26 career starts at Coors because his opponent also has to pitch in the thin air and Kershaw is better than anyone the Rockies have ever run out there, though Ubaldo was pretty good for a couple years there back in the day)
RE: Verlander’s case, although those were from a long while back, isn’t Coors also a tad less extreme nowadays due to use of humidor? Plus the Rockies lineup is most likely a good deal worse right now than they were back then?
They won’t even have Cron back this weekend.