Starting Pitcher Chart – May 26th

May 26, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Friday, May 26th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	George Kirby	SEA		PIT	x	x	x	58.1	2.62	1.01	18%	26th	Remarkable results even though the Ks haven’t materialized as his drafters likely hoped
2	Mitch Keller	PIT	at	SEA	x	x	x	62.2	2.44	0.97	25%	19th	More is less w/the fastball as he’s dropped the usage 10 pts & surged in performance (.507 OPS is 3rd best on heat, min. 70 BF)
3	Hunter Brown	HOU	at	OAK	x	x	x	50.2	3.20	1.26	19%	29th	What a dream getting OAK in back-to-back starts
4	Jon Gray	TEX	at	BAL	x	x	x	50.2	3.02	1.16	10%	11th	Has quickly shaved his ERA from 4.40 to 3.02 over the last 3 starts a solid 20% K-BB and 0.90 ERA
5	Kevin Gausman	TOR	at	MIN	x	x	x	63	3.14	1.08	28%	10th	Probably deserves even better than the 3.14 ERA he has so far
6	Chris Sale	BOS	at	ARI	x	x	x	50.1	5.01	1.17	23%	15th	Looking strong of late with a 3.05 ERA & 0.89 WHIP in 38 IP with 43 Ks
7	Reid Detmers	LAA		MIA	x	x	x	40.2	4.87	1.43	20%	8th	Maybe the regression of Bieber’s LOB rate can shift over to Detmers who should be able to improve upon his tiny 61% mark
8	Justin Steele	CHC		CIN	x	x	x	61.1	2.20	1.01	15%	9th	Has traded Ks for BB improvement so while his K9 makes it look like a plummet (1.7 K drop), it’s a 2.5 pt drop in K%
9	Jesús Luzardo	MIA	at	LAA	x	x	x	56.1	3.83	1.37	19%	16th	Allowed 1 HR in his first 4 starts (0.4) and then 7 over his last 6 (1.9)
10	Freddy Peralta	MIL		SFG	x	x	x	52	4.15	1.31	14%	16th	Rocking a hot 0% K-BB in his last 2 starts at STL & at TBR which isn’t cool… obviously not sitting him anywhere, though
11	Shane Bieber	CLE		STL	x	x	x	64.1	3.08	1.21	12%	2nd	I know the skills are light for this ERA and his 81% LOB will dip, but I’m not sure this is just who he is going forward so I’m sticking with him
12	Matthew Liberatore	STL	at	CLE	x	x	x	6	3.00	1.33	11%	30th	Looked good in his season debut w/improved stuff from last yr; should have staying power if they commit to him at SP
13	Joe Musgrove	SDP	at	NYY	x	x	x	24	6.75	1.58	14%	13th	Hasn’t fully found his groove, but has had to face LAD x2 and BOS since the Mexico City nightmare
14	Alex Wood	SFG	at	MIL	x	x	x	20	4.05	1.45	14%	27th	Good spot to stream him; HRs are his biggest risk but MIL’s .138 ISO isn’t best-suited to take advantage of him
15	Max Scherzer	NYM	at	COL	x	x	x	33.2	4.01	1.19	13%	6th	I’m going for the World Record of recommending guys pitching in Coors this week!
16	Lance Lynn	CHW	at	DET		x	x	57.1	6.28	1.47	19%	23rd	Soft spot in the schedule has helped (CLE, KCR before this) him get back on track… if he’s great here, are you trusting him for LAA next wk??
17	Louie Varland	MIN		TOR		x	x	28	4.18	1.25	20%	4th	Feels a bit like early career Bailey Ober w/the impressive core skills but a considerable HR issue which does make this matchup a bit scarier; I’m still in for most lgs
18	Jared Shuster	ATL		PHI		x	x	19.2	5.49	1.42	4%	29th	Splendid outing last time out v. SEA (6 IP/1 H/1 ER/7 Ks) & wasn’t terrible v. TEX before that (5 IP/3 ER)… I’ll ride the favorable matchup here
19	Patrick Corbin	WSN	at	KCR		x	x	56.1	4.47	1.38	10%	14th	Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his L7, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP but a meager 12% K-BB… I’m rolling with him
20	Hunter Greene	CIN	at	CHC			x	50	4.68	1.50	22%	15th	After allowing 1 HR in his first 6 starts, he has allowed 11 in the last 6 and his 1.4 HR is still an improvement over last yr’s 1.7
21	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI		BOS			x	20	7.65	1.55	7%	7th	HRs have smoothed out w/just 1 in his L2 starts after 6 in the first two; there’s still plenty to like about this rookie arm
22	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL		TEX				42	6.21	1.64	17%	9th	The 4.03 SIERA gives some hope, though until the 2.1 HR and .363 BABIP improve he won’t get anywhere near that SIERA
23	Taijuan Walker	PHI	at	ATL				46.2	5.79	1.44	10%	18th	Maybe in the best of matchups, but no shot against Atlanta
24	Randy Vásquez	NYY		SDP				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	25th	Making his debut from Triple-A where he had a 4.85 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 14% K-BB in 43 IP
25	Joey Wentz	DET		CHW				38.2	7.45	1.63	10%	11th	Has shown some elements over his 71 MLB innings but also faaaarrr too much risk to consider him in many spots
26	Noah Syndergaard	LAD	at	TBR				41.1	5.88	1.33	14%	3rd	Hard to trust him in even the lightest of matchups let alone one of the absolute toughest
27	James Kaprielian	OAK		HOU				28	8.68	1.86	8%	27th	Remember when he was kinda deece back in 2021? Feels like ages ago!
28	Connor Seabold	COL		NYM				31.2	5.97	1.64	9%	20th	No thanks
29	Jordan Lyles	KCR		WSN				56.2	7.15	1.34	9%	17th	No format or situation where I land on a Lyles start
30	Jalen Beeks	TBR		LAD				25	4.68	1.20	9%	10th	Likely just opening for a couple innings here

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Anon

10 months ago

You’ll get to recommend another guy in Coors with Verlander going tomorrow!

But, just a reminder that Coors is undefeated:

Scherzer at Coors – 31.0 IP, 6.39 ERA or 131 PA and a .902 OPS

Verlander has only made 2 starts there and has done much better with a 1.20 ERA and .425 OPS but he also last pitched there in 2017 (& before that 2011).

Paul Sporermember

Reply to Anon

Totally get that Coors is undefeated, but I’m just not sitting Max or JV

Reply to Paul Sporer

I absolutely agree. But you’re always crossing your fingers when you start a guy at Coors. You just never know when a game is going to get away from a guy, even an elite guy.

Kershaw is another one – career 2.49 ERA but 4.82 at Coors in 155 IP so not that small of a sample size. That’s his highest ERA by a lot for anywhere he’s pitched more than once (the only place higher is the old Shea Stadium – he made one start there his rookie year and gave up 4 ER in 3.2 IP). His ERA everywhere other than Coors is 2.34 so Coors has single-handedly raised his career ERA by 0.15. (Although, Kershaw is 11-8 in 26 career starts at Coors because his opponent also has to pitch in the thin air and Kershaw is better than anyone the Rockies have ever run out there, though Ubaldo was pretty good for a couple years there back in the day)

TheUncool

RE: Verlander’s case, although those were from a long while back, isn’t Coors also a tad less extreme nowadays due to use of humidor? Plus the Rockies lineup is most likely a good deal worse right now than they were back then?

They won’t even have Cron back this weekend.