Starting Pitcher Chart – May 19th

May 19, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Friday, May 19th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Shane McClanahan	TBR		MIL	L	x	x	x	The 12% BB rate is a liiiittle concerning, but it hasn’t hit the bottom line just yet; 6 HR in L5 isn’t great either… and yet, still an easy start
2	Zac Gallen	ARI	at	PIT	R	x	x	x	Looking like a bona fide ace again
3	Joe Ryan	MIN	at	LAA	R	x	x	x	Big improvements early on have fueled improved K-BB and HR rates
4	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	He’s getting pummeled the 3rd time through right now, allowing a .925 OPS which is 13th worst in the lg (min. 40 BF); he’s top 30 the 1st & 2nd times through
5	Reid Detmers	LAA		MIN	L	x	x	x	He is so much better than a near-5.00 ERA, I’m buying where available
6	Bryce Miller	SEA	at	ATL	R	x	x	x	Most impressive call-up thus far has to come down from these obscene ratios but has quickly emerged into an all-formats play
7	James Paxton	BOS	at	SDP	L	x	x	x	Talent isn’t really the question, it’s always health — I’m starting him everywhere right now
8	Bryce Elder	ATL		SEA	R	x	x	x	Riding an 87% LOB rate to this early success, but he’s a solid high-3.00s/low-4.00s talent… might not have space on your roster in 10s, but he’s streamable anywhere
9	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG		MIA	R	x	x	x	Likely not missing enough bats (18% K, 8% SwStr) to sustain these incredible HR gains (career-best 0.7 HR v. career 1.3)
10	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	PHI	R		x	x	Couple duds have pushed his numbers back in line with is career norms… likely a rotation mainstay in most 12s & up; maybe more Team Streamer in 10s
11	Blake Snell	SDP		BOS	L		x	x	BB are still a problem, but he has reeled off 3 straight 6 IP starts (3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)… would be a full sit if this was on the road
12	Carlos Carrasco	NYM		CLE	R		x	x	Don’t want to overreact to a couple starts, but even his good one was just OK… great matchup, but I’m not against sitting it out (I’m 51%/49% leaning to start)
13	Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at	STL	R			x	“Oh wow, you really maintained your BABIP without the shift, Tony?” … “What, like it’s hard?”
14	Ranger Suárez	PHI		CHC	L			x	Solid streamer who can get hot and reside on a team for 6 wks; if some of these SwStr gains from his rehab & season debut are real, he’s interesting
15	Cal Quantrill	CLE	at	NYM	R			x	Really stretching the limits of what can reasonably be expected of 4% K-BB
16	Jake Irvin	WSN		DET	R			x	Decent in his first 2, but I can’t get really get beyond the 5% SwStr and find the start button for him very often.. Only if I’m throwin’ weekend Hail Marys
17	Martín Pérez	TEX		COL	L				Has given back all of his 2022 gains and that ERA could certainly push higher if he doesn’t tighten things up a bit
18	Zack Greinke	KCR	at	CHW	R				Not sure his upside is worth the heavy risk every time out
19	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	at	CIN	R				Just too inconsistent to maximize his 18% K-BB; kinda wanna stash in deeper lgs, but he isn’t a must-hold
20	Michael Kopech	CHW		KCR	R				Command and control have eluded Kopech thus far; would love to see him get back on track as he can be electric
21	Brandon Bielak	HOU		OAK	R				That WHIP can’t support that low of an ERA much longer
22	Steven Matz	STL		LAD	L				Career-long HR issues have always made it tough to rely on him for long periods of time
23	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR		BAL	L				Can’t be trusted w/a 2.4 HR rate
24	Matthew Boyd	DET	at	WSN	L				HRs have returned in a big way w/5 in his L5 starts (7.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in 23 IP)
25	Kyle Gibson	BAL	at	TOR	R				Has had some streamer viability this yr but a 9% K-BB has made him super volatile meaning the risk of his bad hasn’t been worth the low-chance upside
26	Ken Waldichuk	OAK	at	HOU	L				11 BB in his last 2 have slashed his K-BB to 7%
27	Johan Oviedo	PIT		ARI	R				Live arm with some upisde, but not in a matchup like this — keep him on your watchlist
28	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN		NYY	R				Just doesn’t miss enough bats to trust in a venue like this
29	Karl Kauffmann	COL	at	TEX	R				2019 8th rounder making his MLB debut and gets a tough landing w/the Rangers… profiles as a back of the rotation arm which paired w/Coors is a quick pass
30	Adrian Houser	MIL	at	TBR	R				Been hit hard in his first 2 starts and even when the .438 BABIP settles, there still isn’t much to see here

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Friday, May 19th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Shane McClanahan	TBR		MIL	L	x	x	x	50	2.34	1.22	18%	0.285	27th
2	Zac Gallen	ARI	at	PIT	R	x	x	x	57.1	2.35	0.85	28%	0.296	24th
3	Joe Ryan	MIN	at	LAA	R	x	x	x	50	2.16	0.84	26%	0.337	7th
4	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	51.1	4.91	1.21	16%	0.316	12th
5	Reid Detmers	LAA		MIN	L	x	x	x	35	4.89	1.51	17%	0.290	26th
6	Bryce Miller	SEA	at	ATL	R	x	x	x	19	0.47	0.42	27%	0.312	15th
7	James Paxton	BOS	at	SDP	L	x	x	x	5	3.60	1.00	40%	0.360	6th
8	Bryce Elder	ATL		SEA	R	x	x	x	46.1	1.94	1.12	13%	0.304	17th
9	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG		MIA	R	x	x	x	50	3.06	0.96	15%	0.293	25th
10	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	PHI	R		x	x	47.1	2.28	1.06	15%	0.317	11th
11	Blake Snell	SDP		BOS	L		x	x	41	4.61	1.54	10%	0.349	8th
12	Carlos Carrasco	NYM		CLE	R		x	x	13.2	8.56	1.61	0%	0.271	30th
13	Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at	STL	R			x	14	1.93	1.07	9%	0.344	3rd
14	Ranger Suárez	PHI		CHC	L			x	4	6.75	2.00	15%	0.345	10th
15	Cal Quantrill	CLE	at	NYM	R			x	45.1	3.97	1.35	4%	0.314	14th
16	Jake Irvin	WSN		DET	R			x	10.2	0.84	1.22	2%	0.285	29th
17	Martín Pérez	TEX		COL	L				42.1	4.25	1.61	9%	0.290	24th
18	Zack Greinke	KCR	at	CHW	R				46.2	5.01	1.24	13%	0.299	20th
19	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	at	CIN	R				35.1	5.35	1.61	20%	0.301	18th
20	Michael Kopech	CHW		KCR	R				42.1	5.74	1.56	7%	0.307	16th
21	Brandon Bielak	HOU		OAK	R				13.2	3.29	1.83	8%	0.293	26th
22	Steven Matz	STL		LAD	L				41.2	5.62	1.61	11%	0.290	25th
23	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR		BAL	L				37.2	3.35	1.19	16%	0.342	12th
24	Matthew Boyd	DET	at	WSN	L				32	6.47	1.56	10%	0.343	11th
25	Kyle Gibson	BAL	at	TOR	R				47	4.40	1.34	9%	0.317	13th
26	Ken Waldichuk	OAK	at	HOU	L				41	7.02	1.83	7%	0.303	21st
27	Johan Oviedo	PIT		ARI	R				42	5.14	1.64	8%	0.362	1st
28	Ben Lively	CIN		NYY	R				3	0.00	1.33	8%	0.299	22nd
29	Karl Kauffmann	COL	at	TEX	R				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.342	5th
30	Adrian Houser	MIL	at	TBR	R				8.2	5.19	1.96	12%	0.356	4th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Thursday, May 18th Starter Review

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	T	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Julio Urías	LAD	at	STL	R	x	x	x	Allowed 4 HR in 3 IP pushing his season rate to 2.3
2	Dylan Cease	CHW		CLE	R	x	x	x	Not the Cease everyone paid for with just 3 Ks
3	Eury Pérez	MIA		WSN	R	x	x	x	Great start (5 IP/1 ER/6 Ks) that included his 1st W
4	José Berríos	TOR		NYY	R	x	x	x	Rebounded well after 2 R in the 1st, coming an out shy of 7 IP with 8 Ks
5	Logan Allen	CLE	at	CHW	L	x	x	x	Has been a machine since coming up
6	Tyler Wells	BAL		LAA	R		x	x	Worked around 2 HRs for a solid outing that included 7 Ks
7	Taj Bradley	TBR	at	NYM	R		x	x	Solid enough return to the bigs… surely he stays now, right?
8	Nestor Cortes	NYY	at	TOR	L			x	Good start… can he string a couple in a row?
9	Trevor Williams	WSN	at	MIA	R			x	Another capable stream but I’m not sure he has enough heat to use v. SD next wk
10	Tyler Anderson	LAA	at	BAL	L				Suffering 1 bad inning almost seems inevitable w/as much contact as he allows
11	Tylor Megill	NYM	at	TBR	R				Has just been so tough to trust start-to-start due to his BB%, was nice to see 1 BB here
12	Adam Wainwright	STL		LAD	R				Got a bit bailed out by some unearned runs & an absolute offensive barrage by his teammates

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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KevinMember since 2022

2 years ago

Thanks as always Paul, these are so helpful.

Found a couple typos.
Think you meant Great American instead of Yankee Stadium for Lively.Kikuchi is facing the Orioles today, not the Yankees

Last edited 2 years ago by Kevin

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to Kevin

Tyvm!