Starting Pitcher Chart – May 19th
by Paul Sporer
May 19, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Friday, May 19th Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane McClanahan | TBR | MIL | L | x | x | x | The 12% BB rate is a liiiittle concerning, but it hasn’t hit the bottom line just yet; 6 HR in L5 isn’t great either… and yet, still an easy start | |
| 2 | Zac Gallen | ARI | at | PIT | R | x | x | x | Looking like a bona fide ace again |
| 3 | Joe Ryan | MIN | at | LAA | R | x | x | x | Big improvements early on have fueled improved K-BB and HR rates |
| 4 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | at | SFG | R | x | x | x | He’s getting pummeled the 3rd time through right now, allowing a .925 OPS which is 13th worst in the lg (min. 40 BF); he’s top 30 the 1st & 2nd times through |
| 5 | Reid Detmers | LAA | MIN | L | x | x | x | He is so much better than a near-5.00 ERA, I’m buying where available | |
| 6 | Bryce Miller | SEA | at | ATL | R | x | x | x | Most impressive call-up thus far has to come down from these obscene ratios but has quickly emerged into an all-formats play |
| 7 | James Paxton | BOS | at | SDP | L | x | x | x | Talent isn’t really the question, it’s always health — I’m starting him everywhere right now |
| 8 | Bryce Elder | ATL | SEA | R | x | x | x | Riding an 87% LOB rate to this early success, but he’s a solid high-3.00s/low-4.00s talent… might not have space on your roster in 10s, but he’s streamable anywhere | |
| 9 | Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | MIA | R | x | x | x | Likely not missing enough bats (18% K, 8% SwStr) to sustain these incredible HR gains (career-best 0.7 HR v. career 1.3) | |
| 10 | Marcus Stroman | CHC | at | PHI | R | x | x | Couple duds have pushed his numbers back in line with is career norms… likely a rotation mainstay in most 12s & up; maybe more Team Streamer in 10s | |
| 11 | Blake Snell | SDP | BOS | L | x | x | BB are still a problem, but he has reeled off 3 straight 6 IP starts (3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)… would be a full sit if this was on the road | ||
| 12 | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | CLE | R | x | x | Don’t want to overreact to a couple starts, but even his good one was just OK… great matchup, but I’m not against sitting it out (I’m 51%/49% leaning to start) | ||
| 13 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | at | STL | R | x | “Oh wow, you really maintained your BABIP without the shift, Tony?” … “What, like it’s hard?” | ||
| 14 | Ranger Suárez | PHI | CHC | L | x | Solid streamer who can get hot and reside on a team for 6 wks; if some of these SwStr gains from his rehab & season debut are real, he’s interesting | |||
| 15 | Cal Quantrill | CLE | at | NYM | R | x | Really stretching the limits of what can reasonably be expected of 4% K-BB | ||
| 16 | Jake Irvin | WSN | DET | R | x | Decent in his first 2, but I can’t get really get beyond the 5% SwStr and find the start button for him very often.. Only if I’m throwin’ weekend Hail Marys | |||
| 17 | Martín Pérez | TEX | COL | L | Has given back all of his 2022 gains and that ERA could certainly push higher if he doesn’t tighten things up a bit | ||||
| 18 | Zack Greinke | KCR | at | CHW | R | Not sure his upside is worth the heavy risk every time out | |||
| 19 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | at | CIN | R | Just too inconsistent to maximize his 18% K-BB; kinda wanna stash in deeper lgs, but he isn’t a must-hold | |||
| 20 | Michael Kopech | CHW | KCR | R | Command and control have eluded Kopech thus far; would love to see him get back on track as he can be electric | ||||
| 21 | Brandon Bielak | HOU | OAK | R | That WHIP can’t support that low of an ERA much longer | ||||
| 22 | Steven Matz | STL | LAD | L | Career-long HR issues have always made it tough to rely on him for long periods of time | ||||
| 23 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | BAL | L | Can’t be trusted w/a 2.4 HR rate | ||||
| 24 | Matthew Boyd | DET | at | WSN | L | HRs have returned in a big way w/5 in his L5 starts (7.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in 23 IP) | |||
| 25 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | at | TOR | R | Has had some streamer viability this yr but a 9% K-BB has made him super volatile meaning the risk of his bad hasn’t been worth the low-chance upside | |||
| 26 | Ken Waldichuk | OAK | at | HOU | L | 11 BB in his last 2 have slashed his K-BB to 7% | |||
| 27 | Johan Oviedo | PIT | ARI | R | Live arm with some upisde, but not in a matchup like this — keep him on your watchlist | ||||
| 28 | Ben Lively 라이블리 | CIN | NYY | R | Just doesn’t miss enough bats to trust in a venue like this | ||||
| 29 | Karl Kauffmann | COL | at | TEX | R | 2019 8th rounder making his MLB debut and gets a tough landing w/the Rangers… profiles as a back of the rotation arm which paired w/Coors is a quick pass | |||
| 30 | Adrian Houser | MIL | at | TBR | R | Been hit hard in his first 2 starts and even when the .438 BABIP settles, there still isn’t much to see here |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Friday, May 19th Starter Stats
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane McClanahan | TBR | MIL | L | x | x | x | 50 | 2.34 | 1.22 | 18% | 0.285 | 27th | |
| 2 | Zac Gallen | ARI | at | PIT | R | x | x | x | 57.1 | 2.35 | 0.85 | 28% | 0.296 | 24th |
| 3 | Joe Ryan | MIN | at | LAA | R | x | x | x | 50 | 2.16 | 0.84 | 26% | 0.337 | 7th |
| 4 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | at | SFG | R | x | x | x | 51.1 | 4.91 | 1.21 | 16% | 0.316 | 12th |
| 5 | Reid Detmers | LAA | MIN | L | x | x | x | 35 | 4.89 | 1.51 | 17% | 0.290 | 26th | |
| 6 | Bryce Miller | SEA | at | ATL | R | x | x | x | 19 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 27% | 0.312 | 15th |
| 7 | James Paxton | BOS | at | SDP | L | x | x | x | 5 | 3.60 | 1.00 | 40% | 0.360 | 6th |
| 8 | Bryce Elder | ATL | SEA | R | x | x | x | 46.1 | 1.94 | 1.12 | 13% | 0.304 | 17th | |
| 9 | Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | MIA | R | x | x | x | 50 | 3.06 | 0.96 | 15% | 0.293 | 25th | |
| 10 | Marcus Stroman | CHC | at | PHI | R | x | x | 47.1 | 2.28 | 1.06 | 15% | 0.317 | 11th | |
| 11 | Blake Snell | SDP | BOS | L | x | x | 41 | 4.61 | 1.54 | 10% | 0.349 | 8th | ||
| 12 | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | CLE | R | x | x | 13.2 | 8.56 | 1.61 | 0% | 0.271 | 30th | ||
| 13 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | at | STL | R | x | 14 | 1.93 | 1.07 | 9% | 0.344 | 3rd | ||
| 14 | Ranger Suárez | PHI | CHC | L | x | 4 | 6.75 | 2.00 | 15% | 0.345 | 10th | |||
| 15 | Cal Quantrill | CLE | at | NYM | R | x | 45.1 | 3.97 | 1.35 | 4% | 0.314 | 14th | ||
| 16 | Jake Irvin | WSN | DET | R | x | 10.2 | 0.84 | 1.22 | 2% | 0.285 | 29th | |||
| 17 | Martín Pérez | TEX | COL | L | 42.1 | 4.25 | 1.61 | 9% | 0.290 | 24th | ||||
| 18 | Zack Greinke | KCR | at | CHW | R | 46.2 | 5.01 | 1.24 | 13% | 0.299 | 20th | |||
| 19 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | at | CIN | R | 35.1 | 5.35 | 1.61 | 20% | 0.301 | 18th | |||
| 20 | Michael Kopech | CHW | KCR | R | 42.1 | 5.74 | 1.56 | 7% | 0.307 | 16th | ||||
| 21 | Brandon Bielak | HOU | OAK | R | 13.2 | 3.29 | 1.83 | 8% | 0.293 | 26th | ||||
| 22 | Steven Matz | STL | LAD | L | 41.2 | 5.62 | 1.61 | 11% | 0.290 | 25th | ||||
| 23 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | BAL | L | 37.2 | 3.35 | 1.19 | 16% | 0.342 | 12th | ||||
| 24 | Matthew Boyd | DET | at | WSN | L | 32 | 6.47 | 1.56 | 10% | 0.343 | 11th | |||
| 25 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | at | TOR | R | 47 | 4.40 | 1.34 | 9% | 0.317 | 13th | |||
| 26 | Ken Waldichuk | OAK | at | HOU | L | 41 | 7.02 | 1.83 | 7% | 0.303 | 21st | |||
| 27 | Johan Oviedo | PIT | ARI | R | 42 | 5.14 | 1.64 | 8% | 0.362 | 1st | ||||
| 28 | Ben Lively | CIN | NYY | R | 3 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 8% | 0.299 | 22nd | ||||
| 29 | Karl Kauffmann | COL | at | TEX | R | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 0.342 | 5th | |||
| 30 | Adrian Houser | MIL | at | TBR | R | 8.2 | 5.19 | 1.96 | 12% | 0.356 | 4th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Thursday, May 18th Starter Review
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | T | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julio Urías | LAD | at | STL | R | x | x | x | Allowed 4 HR in 3 IP pushing his season rate to 2.3 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | CHW | CLE | R | x | x | x | Not the Cease everyone paid for with just 3 Ks | |
| 3 | Eury Pérez | MIA | WSN | R | x | x | x | Great start (5 IP/1 ER/6 Ks) that included his 1st W | |
| 4 | José Berríos | TOR | NYY | R | x | x | x | Rebounded well after 2 R in the 1st, coming an out shy of 7 IP with 8 Ks | |
| 5 | Logan Allen | CLE | at | CHW | L | x | x | x | Has been a machine since coming up |
| 6 | Tyler Wells | BAL | LAA | R | x | x | Worked around 2 HRs for a solid outing that included 7 Ks | ||
| 7 | Taj Bradley | TBR | at | NYM | R | x | x | Solid enough return to the bigs… surely he stays now, right? | |
| 8 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | at | TOR | L | x | Good start… can he string a couple in a row? | ||
| 9 | Trevor Williams | WSN | at | MIA | R | x | Another capable stream but I’m not sure he has enough heat to use v. SD next wk | ||
| 10 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | at | BAL | L | Suffering 1 bad inning almost seems inevitable w/as much contact as he allows | |||
| 11 | Tylor Megill | NYM | at | TBR | R | Has just been so tough to trust start-to-start due to his BB%, was nice to see 1 BB here | |||
| 12 | Adam Wainwright | STL | LAD | R | Got a bit bailed out by some unearned runs & an absolute offensive barrage by his teammates |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Thanks as always Paul, these are so helpful.
Found a couple typos.
Think you meant Great American instead of Yankee Stadium for Lively.Kikuchi is facing the Orioles today, not the Yankees
Tyvm!