Starting Pitcher Chart – May 18th

May 18, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Thursday, May 18th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Julio Urías	LAD	at	STL	R	x	x	x	BABIP & HR surges have pushed him (3.61 ERA) right to the SIERA we’ve seen since 2021 (3.65)
2	Dylan Cease	CHW		CLE	R	x	x	x	We all knew the 82% LOB would level off, but it might be overcorrected at 65% (career 76%; lg avg 72%) — I’m sticking with him
3	Eury Pérez	MIA		WSN	R	x	x	x	I usually give call-ups like this 5-6 starts locked in the lineup before really making any choices on ’em
4	José Berríos	TOR		NYY	R	x	x	x	Disaster at BOS might’ve scared those who got burnt last yr, but he rebounded well despite a HR in each; no worse than a Team Streamer in all formats
5	Logan Allen	CLE	at	CHW	L	x	x	x	WHIP is running hot, but I’m undaunted… I’m buying into the core skills
6	Tyler Wells	BAL		LAA	R		x	x	Tough matchup gives me some pause in shallower formats, but I’m definitely not cutting him even if you plan to skip this outing
7	Taj Bradley	TBR	at	NYM	R		x	x	Officially called up for this start; I know his 3 MiLB starts stunk… not sure if he was working on something specific, but regardless I’m putting him back in
8	Nestor Cortes	NYY	at	TOR	L			x	The tough part is that while he isn’t super far off K-BB from 2021-22, his margins are small and there are no guarantees that he gets good again
9	Trevor Williams	WSN	at	MIA	R			x	Has been a capable streamer with his best starts against his easier matchups… MIA is a viable spot to take the gamble
10	Tyler Anderson	LAA	at	BAL	L				Better results over his L3 w/a 3.06 ERA, but the 1.57 WHIP and 4% K-BB say he’s not much better
11	Tylor Megill	NYM	at	TBR	R				Just nowhere near the guy he was in 2021-22 (19% K-BB)
12	Adam Wainwright	STL		LAD	R				Basically just NL’s Zack Greinke

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Thursday, May 18th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Julio Urías	LAD	at	STL	R	x	x	x	52.1	3.61	1.07	21%	0.345	3rd
2	Dylan Cease	CHW		CLE	R	x	x	x	46.1	4.86	1.45	15%	0.269	30th
3	Eury Pérez	MIA		WSN	R	x	x	x	4.2	3.86	1.29	25%	0.297	20th
4	José Berríos	TOR		NYY	R	x	x	x	46	4.70	1.28	17%	0.307	16th
5	Logan Allen	CLE	at	CHW	L	x	x	x	21	3.43	1.48	18%	0.305	20th
6	Tyler Wells	BAL		LAA	R		x	x	47	2.68	0.72	17%	0.340	5th
7	Taj Bradley	TBR	at	NYM	R		x	x	15.1	3.52	0.91	35%	0.310	14th
8	Nestor Cortes	NYY	at	TOR	L			x	42.1	5.53	1.32	16%	0.363	4th
9	Trevor Williams	WSN	at	MIA	R			x	38.1	3.99	1.30	11%	0.295	23rd
10	Tyler Anderson	LAA	at	BAL	L				37.2	5.26	1.62	3%	0.335	12th
11	Tylor Megill	NYM	at	TBR	R				40.1	4.02	1.51	5%	0.352	4th
12	Adam Wainwright	STL		LAD	R				10	7.20	1.70	11%	0.338	8th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Wednesday, May 17th Starter Review

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	T	10	12	15	NOTE
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	at	TEX	R	x	x	x	A 3-run 4th inning saddled him w/his worst start of the yr (5 IP/4 ER/7 Ks)
2	Gerrit Cole	NYY	at	TOR	R	x	x	x	Back to his HR-free ways with 6 scoreless in a tough road matchup
3	Yu Darvish	SDP		KCR	R	x	x	x	Was cruising thru 5 before getting smoked in the 6th: BB-HR-LO-2B-2B-day over
4	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX		ATL	R	x	x	x	Took on a tough matchup and came away w/7 strong (3 ER/5 Ks)
5	Sonny Gray	MIN	at	LAD	R	x	x	x	Inefficient effort left him getting pulled after just 4 IP with 84 pitches
6	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET		PIT	L	x	x	x	Just didn’t have it all working here after his major hot streak
7	Corbin Burnes	MIL	at	STL	R	x	x	x	Baseline QS pushes him to 2.13 ERA/1.04 WHIP in his last 42.1 IP
8	Chris Bassitt	TOR		NYY	R	x	x	x	Nice to see 1 BB in this gem; he’s been great since the opener but 11% BB coming into tonight raised an eyebrow
9	Matthew Liberatore	STL		MIL	L		x	x	Time for another triple-digit waiver wire pitcher this wknd after his debut gem (5 IP/0 ER/6 Ks/W)
10	Drew Smyly	CHC	at	HOU	L		x	x	Fantastic outing w/another 8 punchies and his 8th straight of 2 or fewer ER (6 IP/1 ER)
11	MacKenzie Gore	WSN	at	MIA	L		x	x	Pitched well with a 2-run HR mistake to Soler spoiling it a bit; 7 K/2 BB definitely works
12	Dustin May	LAD		MIN	R		x	x	Left due to flexor pronator strain that will keep him out at least 4-6 wks
13	Kyle Bradish	BAL		LAA	R		x	x	Great work in a tough outing; nearing must start in most formats for me
14	Griffin Canning	LAA	at	BAL	R		x	x	Did better than expected with 2.08 WHIP in 5.1 IP
15	Mike Clevinger	CHW		CLE	R		x	x	Worked around 4 BB for a good stream outing (6 IP/2 ER/5 Ks/W)
16	Peyton Battenfield	CLE	at	CHW	R		x	x	Rough start in a good spot for the rookie with 3 HRs doing most of the damage
17	Brayan Bello	BOS		SEA	R			x	Classic “effectively wild” start w/5 BB but also 7 Ks and 19 swinging strikes
18	J.P. France	HOU		CHC	R			x	Not terribly shocking to see him get touched up as the 28-yr-old non-prospect is far from bankable at this point
19	Rich Hill	PIT	at	DET	L			x	Of course he has his best start of the yr after I threw some shade on him; still risky every time out but has some streamer appeal
20	Ryne Nelson	ARI	at	OAK	R				OK fine, OAK was enough to bring him some streamer upside despite 4 BB
21	Kodai Senga	NYM		TBR	R				Was a strong fade for me and then dropped his best start of the season! Season-high 12 Ks came w/18 swinging strikes
22	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	at	COL	R				If you ate this one, you have no one to blame but yourself
23	Josh Fleming	TBR	at	NYM	R				Dropped a nice spot start with 5 shutout innings
24	Taijuan Walker	PHI	at	SFG	R				Reached 40 pitches in the 1st before getting lifted, just hard to rebound from an inning like that
25	Edward Cabrera	MIA		WSN	R				He’ll have his occasional gem… just not sure the WHIP-destroying downisde is worth gambling for these rare gems
26	Marco Gonzales	SEA	at	BOS	L				Just wasn’t fooling them in the slightest w/8 ER in under 2 IP
27	Luis Medina	OAK		ARI	R				OK, that’s 2 QS in a row… I’m paying attention to the live-armed prospect now — gets at SEA, v. HOU next wk which isn’t easy but he’ll draw waiver attention
28	Ross Stripling	SFG		PHI	R				A non-factor in fantasy at this point
29	Carlos Hernández	KCR	at	SDP	R				Just opening a bullpen game
30	Austin Gomber	COL		CIN	L				Yeah… I mean, obviously

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues