Starting Pitcher Chart – May 17th
by Paul Sporer
May 17, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Wednesday, May 17th Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Strider | ATL | at | TEX | R | x | x | x | Might be the best start going right now |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | at | TOR | R | x | x | x | After 7 HR-free outings to open the season, he’s allowed 2 HR in each of his last 2 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | SDP | KCR | R | x | x | x | Has only allowed more than 2 ER just 2x this yr | |
| 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | ATL | R | x | x | x | HR suppression like won’t hold at this level (0.2 HR, 2% HR/FB), but sharp 23% K-BB makes him an Auto-Start while healthy | |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | MIN | at | LAD | R | x | x | x | More than 1 ER allowed just once this yr (3 ER at CLE) |
| 6 | Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | PIT | L | x | x | x | Just blazing hot right now: 0.25 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 27% K-BB in 35.7 IP… there will be regression, but an easy Auto-Start right now | |
| 7 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | at | STL | R | x | x | x | Toting a 1.73 ERA over his L6 despite a modest 14% K-BB in that time; weird season so far, but I’m nowhere near sitting him |
| 8 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | NYY | R | x | x | x | Fantastic results since his ugly opener w/a 1.97 ERA & 0.95 WHIP, though just an 11% K-BB due to an uncharacteristic 12% BB | |
| 9 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | MIL | L | x | x | Standout prospect made some key changes in spring that carried over to his AAA work (30% K, 21% K-BB, 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 46 IP) | ||
| 10 | Drew Smyly | CHC | at | HOU | L | x | x | Don’t love the 3 pt drop in SwStr but I’m starting virtually everywhere right now; also has an NYM/CIN 2-step lined up next wk so hold even if you pass on this start | |
| 11 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | at | MIA | L | x | x | Just be mindful of the hideous WHIP you’re taking on w/Gore, but if you need Ks and a decent shot at quality ERA, he’s worth a look | |
| 12 | Dustin May | LAD | MIN | R | x | x | Has completely lost his swing-and-miss w/just a 6% SwStr but still so tough to hit that he remains startable in most formats | ||
| 13 | Kyle Bradish | BAL | LAA | R | x | x | Has rebounded from the ugly 7 ER v. BOS w/a 3.45 ERA & 1.18 WHIP in 3 starts | ||
| 14 | Griffin Canning | LAA | at | BAL | R | x | x | B2B duds (5 ER in both) w/HRs remaining a persistent issue (1.5 HR); still like the matchup and his 13% SwStr enough to stream | |
| 15 | Taj Bradley | TBR | at | NYM | R | x | x | This isn’t confirmed but there is an open spot with the Rasmussen injury… he’s had some bad AAA starts, but I’d still start him if he gets this start | |
| 16 | Mike Clevinger | CHW | CLE | R | x | x | Wouldn’t say I really trust him, but it’s a juicy matchup and he’s been alright in his L3 (4.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 18% K-BB) | ||
| 17 | Peyton Battenfield | CLE | at | CHW | R | x | x | 2 decent outings after a quick respite in the bullpen w/11 Ks and 0 BB in 13 IP | |
| 18 | Brayan Bello | BOS | SEA | R | x | Prospect arm has shown flashes of his upside, but has also allowed a 1 HR in every one of his 5 starts | |||
| 19 | J.P. France | HOU | CHC | R | x | I can see a deep lg stream, but heed the 4.37 SIERA from his first 2 starts | |||
| 20 | Rich Hill | PIT | at | DET | L | x | Tigers hitting well vL of late and upside is limited here anyway so I’m not starting him in many spots | ||
| 21 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | at | OAK | R | Not sure even facing OAK brings him much streamer value | |||
| 22 | Kodai Senga | NYM | TBR | R | Huge BB and HR rates make it nearly impossible to start against the Rays | ||||
| 23 | Graham Ashcraft | CIN | at | COL | R | I’m having a hard time trusting him in good spots w/the paltry 7% K-BB, let alone in Coors | |||
| 24 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | at | SFG | R | 2 quality starts in a row including one in Coors isn’t quite enough to get me on board for this start | |||
| 25 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | WSN | R | Love the 30% K rate, but it’s hard to succeed with an 18% BB and 1.3 HR | ||||
| 26 | Marco Gonzales | SEA | at | BOS | L | Can’t trust Gonzales in Fenway | |||
| 27 | Luis Medina | OAK | ARI | R | Put up a decent QS last time out, but it’s not enough to get me on board here | ||||
| 28 | Ross Stripling | SFG | PHI | R | HR machine has allowed multiple bombs in 4 outings, 2 of which were relief appearances | ||||
| 29 | Carlos Hernández | KCR | at | SDP | R | Has never been able to bring RP success (14% K-BB) to starting (3%) | |||
| 30 | Austin Gomber | COL | CIN | L | Never Gomber in Coors… or anywhere for that matter |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Wednesday, May 17th Starter Stats
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Strider | ATL | at | TEX | R | x | x | x | 46.2 | 2.51 | 0.92 | 35% | 0.339 | 6th |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | at | TOR | R | x | x | x | 56.2 | 2.22 | 1.04 | 20% | 0.316 | 13th |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | SDP | KCR | R | x | x | x | 42.2 | 3.16 | 1.08 | 19% | 0.297 | 22nd | |
| 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | ATL | R | x | x | x | 53.1 | 2.70 | 0.99 | 23% | 0.309 | 15th | |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | MIN | at | LAD | R | x | x | x | 45.1 | 1.39 | 1.08 | 22% | 0.338 | 8th |
| 6 | Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | PIT | L | x | x | x | 51.2 | 1.57 | 0.79 | 20% | 0.360 | 8th | |
| 7 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | at | STL | R | x | x | x | 45.2 | 3.35 | 1.12 | 11% | 0.345 | 3rd |
| 8 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | NYY | R | x | x | x | 49 | 3.49 | 1.08 | 10% | 0.307 | 16th | |
| 9 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | MIL | L | x | x | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 0.286 | 28th | ||
| 10 | Drew Smyly | CHC | at | HOU | L | x | x | 44.1 | 3.05 | 0.97 | 16% | 0.304 | 21st | |
| 11 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | at | MIA | L | x | x | 41 | 3.29 | 1.46 | 17% | 0.324 | 15th | |
| 12 | Dustin May | LAD | MIN | R | x | x | 47 | 2.68 | 0.94 | 9% | 0.339 | 7th | ||
| 13 | Kyle Bradish | BAL | LAA | R | x | x | 25.2 | 4.56 | 1.48 | 12% | 0.340 | 5th | ||
| 14 | Griffin Canning | LAA | at | BAL | R | x | x | 24 | 6.38 | 1.38 | 12% | 0.295 | 24th | |
| 15 | Taj Bradley | TBR | at | NYM | R | x | x | 15.1 | 3.52 | 0.91 | 35% | 0.310 | 14th | |
| 16 | Mike Clevinger | CHW | CLE | R | x | x | 41.1 | 4.79 | 1.43 | 9% | 0.269 | 30th | ||
| 17 | Peyton Battenfield | CLE | at | CHW | R | x | x | 30.1 | 4.45 | 1.19 | 11% | 0.292 | 25th | |
| 18 | Brayan Bello | BOS | SEA | R | x | 23.1 | 5.01 | 1.59 | 16% | 0.307 | 17th | |||
| 19 | J.P. France | HOU | CHC | R | x | 11.2 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 14% | 0.317 | 11th | |||
| 20 | Rich Hill | PIT | at | DET | L | x | 41.1 | 4.35 | 1.48 | 13% | 0.362 | 5th | ||
| 21 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | at | OAK | R | 40.2 | 6.20 | 1.55 | 8% | 0.289 | 27th | |||
| 22 | Kodai Senga | NYM | TBR | R | 37 | 4.14 | 1.51 | 12% | 0.352 | 4th | ||||
| 23 | Graham Ashcraft | CIN | at | COL | R | 43.1 | 3.95 | 1.34 | 7% | 0.322 | 9th | |||
| 24 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | at | SFG | R | 40.2 | 5.75 | 1.38 | 12% | 0.313 | 12th | |||
| 25 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | WSN | R | 35.1 | 5.35 | 1.67 | 12% | 0.297 | 20th | ||||
| 26 | Marco Gonzales | SEA | at | BOS | L | 36.2 | 4.42 | 1.39 | 8% | 0.322 | 17th | |||
| 27 | Luis Medina | OAK | ARI | R | 11 | 8.18 | 1.45 | 12% | 0.364 | 1st | ||||
| 28 | Ross Stripling | SFG | PHI | R | 29 | 7.14 | 1.59 | 12% | 0.318 | 10th | ||||
| 29 | Carlos Hernández | KCR | at | SDP | R | 19 | 4.74 | 1.37 | 17% | 0.291 | 26th | |||
| 30 | Austin Gomber | COL | CIN | L | 40 | 6.30 | 1.45 | 7% | 0.297 | 24th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Tuesday, May 16th Starter Review
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | T | 10 | 12 | 15 | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | MIN | L | x | x | x | Twins ran his count up & got him out after 4 so W, but results were fine (4 IP/2 ER/7 K) | |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | NYM | at | TBR | R | x | x | x | I was never sitting him even in this tough matchup, but TBR took advantage of 10 base runners from the veteran righty |
| 3 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | NYY | R | x | x | x | Didn’t get the W as TOR took over late, but 7 IP/2 ER/10 Ks is super useful | |
| 4 | Justin Steele | CHC | at | HOU | L | x | x | x | OBI Syndrome (One Bad Inning) got him as he opened HBP, 2B, 2B & then allowed 2 more 2B, yielding 4 of his 5 ER |
| 5 | Cristian Javier | HOU | CHC | R | x | x | x | Just 4 base runners in 6 great innings of work | |
| 6 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | at | SFG | R | x | x | x | 4th start of 4+ ER already this yr after just 5 all of last yr |
| 7 | Luis Castillo | SEA | at | BOS | R | x | x | x | Knew it was a tough draw going in & they got him for 3 HRs which led to a poor outing… it happens, nothing to worry about long-term |
| 8 | Shane Bieber | CLE | at | CHW | R | x | x | x | Sunk by a disastrous 5th inning that opened w/a 1B & GIDP followed by 6 straight reaching & scoring incl. 2 HRs |
| 9 | Bailey Ober | MIN | at | LAD | R | x | x | x | Looked great in 6 IP, allowing just 1 run w/6 Ks… how is he only 61% rostered at Yahoo? |
| 10 | Jesús Luzardo | MIA | WSN | L | x | x | x | Excellent job against the toughest tm to K for lefties (7 Ks, 16 swinging strikes in 93 pitches over 6 IP) | |
| 11 | Josiah Gray | WSN | at | MIA | R | x | x | x | 6th HR-free outing after having just 5 in 28 starts last year |
| 12 | Jordan Montgomery | STL | MIL | L | x | x | x | Definitely wanted more given how poorly MIL has done vL but it wasn’t a bad outing (5.3 IP/3 ER/7 Ks) | |
| 13 | Seth Lugo | SDP | KCR | R | x | x | x | 1st true dud of the yr as KC scored 5 of the 6 base runners Lugo allowed | |
| 14 | Lance Lynn | CHW | CLE | R | x | x | Standing by him paid off in the 1st of this final straw 2-step (7 IP/1 ER/0 BB/7 Ks) | ||
| 15 | Dane Dunning | TEX | ATL | R | x | x | Great work here and sets up for an at PIT/at BAL 2-step next wk | ||
| 16 | Alex Cobb | SFG | PHI | R | x | x | 5 BB sank him as he was out after 3.3 IP | ||
| 17 | Michael Lorenzen | DET | PIT | R | x | A 3rd straight gem, this time w/backing from his base skills (7 Ks, 2 BB) after just 4 total Ks in 14 previous IP | |||
| 18 | Luis L. Ortiz | PIT | at | DET | R | x | DET exploited command and control issues for 7 H and 4 BB en route to an early exit | ||
| 19 | Yonny Chirinos | TBR | at | NYM | R | x | b | ||
| 20 | Wade Miley | MIL | at | STL | L | x | A left lat strain took him out after 22 pitches, stay tuned to see if it’ll require an IL stint | ||
| 21 | Domingo Germán | NYY | at | TOR | R | Merked for using a foreign substance & will almost certainly be suspended for 10 gms | |||
| 22 | Brady Singer | KCR | at | SDP | R | 2 uneearned made this prettier than it was w/9 base runners and just 3 Ks in 6 IP | |||
| 23 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | SEA | R | Offensive support helped him snag a W despite 4 ER in 5.3 IP | ||||
| 24 | Chase Silseth | LAA | at | BAL | R | I like the idea of Silseth as I do believe he can be a good SP eventually, just not very trustworthy right now | |||
| 25 | Dean Kremer | BAL | LAA | R | 1 out shy of a baseline QS, but did manage the W so it paid off if you took on the risk | ||||
| 26 | Tommy Henry | ARI | at | OAK | L | See, Oakland doesn’t make everyone look good! | |||
| 27 | Brandon Williamson | CIN | at | COL | L | I’m sure a debut gem in Coors (1 ER, 6 Ks in 5.7 IP) won’t push his waiver prices to silly levels | |||
| 28 | Kyle Muller | OAK | ARI | L | Another dud as expected | ||||
| 29 | Chase Anderson | COL | CIN | R | OK Chase, I see you! (5 IP/1 H/0 ER)… still not starting him anywhere | ||||
| 30 | Jared Shuster | ATL | at | TEX | L | Wasn’t terrible but you didn’t miss anything sitting him |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
I kind of gave up on Bello after his rough start last year but looking at him again, he’s kind of interesting. Last year he gave up virtually no HR but got BABIP’d to death. This year he’s giving up an insane number of HR. There has to be a balance somewhere in the middle.
He’s the rare GB pitcher that also racks up Ks. Looking at just GB% and K/9 for all pitchers since 2000 his most direct comp is Logan Webb. McCullers isn’t too far off either. And while he has only thrown 80 IP in the majors, he was running high K & GB numbers in the minors also so this isn’t unexpected.
PIcked him up for the stream but I’m seeing pretty good potential long-term as well.