Ottoneu Hot Right Now: May 17th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

James Paxton – 70 current auctions

Years ago, when Paxton was first coming up with the Mariners, I went to see him pitch with a friend. That friend was a Dodgers fan. And that friend, watching this tall lefty carve-up hitters commented that Paxton gave him Clayton Kershaw vibes. Well, he maybe didn’t use that exact phrase, but the sentiment was there. And it’s not a totally crazy sentiment. Paxton, when he is healthy and at his best, is as good as they come. Maybe not actually Kershaw-level-good, but really, really good.

So it isn’t a total surprise that a fully healthy Paxton, with a handful of minor league starts acting like his Spring Training, came up and struck out nine Cardinals in 5 IP, walking just one and allowing 2 ER on 4 H in his 2023 debut.

Given he pitched zero MLB innings in 2022, and a total of 21.2 IP in 2020 and 2021 combined, it would be a surprise if he kept doing it for very long. But for now, Paxton’s velocity is as high as it has been since 2016 and he looked great in his one start. There are a couple of concerning signs – the swinging strike rate doesn’t really support an elite K-rate or even a particularly good K-rate; the swing rate on pitches outside the zone was abysmally low.

I would expect Paxton to pitch decently, but not quite as well as he did last time out, moving forward. I would expect him to be limited to 5 IP per start, and maybe less when he isn’t efficient. I would expect him to only throw another 50-75 IP the rest of way, if things go pretty well. The smart money would be on less than that. That’s not a pitcher who is going to save your season, but it is a guy you could ride for a month while he is off the IL.

Matt McLain – 64 current auctions

McLain wasn’t completely unheralded before the season, as he was a top-ten prospect in the Reds system, even if he wasn’t a top-100 type. But I have to imagine even his biggest fans did not expect him to put up a .499 wOBA in Triple-A and blow past a crowded IF pipeline to take over as the Reds SS this quickly. But that is just what McLain did.

McLain made two big changes in 2023. First, he reduced his K-rate from 28.1% in Double-A in 2022 to just 19.7% in his time in Triple-A. Second, he saw his HR/FB rate jump from 15.9% to 23.5%, while also slightly increasing his fly ball rate, leading to a massive uptick in his ISO. Coming into the year, McLain looked more like a speed guy, having stolen 37 bases in 571 MiLB PA over two seasons, while hitting just 20 HR. That isn’t terrible “only draft this guy for speed” power, but it isn’t big power, either. This year, he has 12 HR already. He also has 10 SB, but has been caught 5 times.

I am a fan of McLain and I think with these gains he can be a very solid Ottoneu MI. I could see him working his way into a $10-$12 valuation for 2024 pretty easily, and there is upside beyond that. That’s enough to have me putting $5+ bids on him now. Although you should note, his median salary over his last ten adds is $7.50, so $5 likely won’t get it done.

Dominic Fletcher – 48 current auctions

Fletcher was even less-heralded than McLain, with Eric Longenhagen writing in March that, “there’s still a solid fifth outfielder’s skill set here.” Since then, Fletcher has added some pop to his strong plate discipline and earned some playing time in a crowded Arizona OF. And he has been putting up big numbers with the DBacks.

The thing is, for every number there is to like, there is one to be concerned about. Seeing a young hitter maintain a 15.8% K-rate in his first 57 MLB PA is great. Seeing him walk just 3.5% of the time is not. Seeing him hit a couple of HR immediately is great; seeing just a 4.9% barrel-rate is not.

I like Fletcher, because I like guys with plate discipline who show some signs of being able to tap into more power than expected. I think that plate discipline gives him a solid floor. My biggest “floor” concern with him is that there are so many OF bats in Arizona, if he slips back (and I suspect he will), he could be out of a job rather quickly. But, like Paxton above, I am happy to take a shot on him and enjoy the ride while it lasts. The good news is, unlike Paxton, I think there is a real chance Fletcher could stick around as a solid end-of-your-OF type bat.

AJ Smith-Shawver – 38 current auctions

Smith-Shawver started the year in High-A and after just three starts there and two in Double-A, he has made his way to Triple-A and is on the doorstep of the bigs. And he may not need to exactly kick down that door, because Atlanta is barely able to keep a full rotation together more than one time through. Kyle Wright is hurt, Max Fried is hurt, and a number of other guys have been pretty ineffective.

Smith-Shawver, meanwhile, has struck out 32 hitters in 21 innings, walking only 7, giving up just 11 hits and not allowing a single run, earned or unearned. Yeah, that was against young competition, but Smth-Shawver is still more than half a year from his 21st birthday, making those results pretty impressive, despite the level. If he can continue that at Triple-A, his stay there could be as short as his last two levels.

Given the state of pitching and Smith-Shawver’s upside, I can understand wanting to put a few bucks on him but remember: he is moving very fast which means the track record is short and they are asking a lot of him. There is a very good chance he crashes and needs more time in the minors. It’s worth a shot, but be cautious.

J.P. France – 35 current auctions; Ben Brown – 34 current auctions

France and Brown were both covered in this space last week.

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Roster Adds

Casey Schmitt, Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 60.26%

Schmitt has set the world on fire since his call-up. Even with a dismal 1-for-4 showing Tuesday, he has a .506 wOBA in his first 32 PA. That’s pretty great. He also had “only” a .346 wOBA in Triple-A despite the help of a .383 BABIP. That is not a bad line, by any means, but it might give us a better sense of the kind of hitter he is. He won’t strike out much; he likely won’t walk a ton; he has some pop, but not big power.

All of that adds up to a guy who you are hoping puts together a .320-.330 type wOBA. That is very useful out of a player with MI eligibility and an elite glove that should keep him in the lineup. Nico Hoerner has a .328 wOBA this year. Jeff McNeil a .325. McNeil has been putting up 4.44 P/G; while Hoerner is at 5.65, based in part on lineup spot and role. That is a fairly wide range and it’s probably not a bad estimate of the high- and low-end of a successful version of Schmitt.

I doubt he becomes a $10+ guy in the future, so I don’t want to get close to that now, but he is a fun pickup with some staying power.

Ben Brown (42.95%), JP France (40.71%), Ian Hamilton (40.06%), and J.J. Bleday (40.06%) were all covered last week, so we will skip over them.

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Hot Performers

We’ve seen a couple of popular players, both rostered in 100% of leagues, turn it on lately. Luis Robert Jr. has posted a .583 wOBA the last two weeks, hitting 6 HR in the process. He has also been striking out just 20.8% of the time, bringing that K-rate down to where it was in his brilliant 2021 season. His walk rate has increased, too, at 9.4% over that two-week stretch. These are the adjustments we have been wanting to see from Robert and while it is too early to say he has made a leap, this is what that leap would look like, if it ever happens.

The other is Salvador Perez, who also has 6 HR over the last couple of weeks. The thing is, even with this hot streak, Perez looks a lot like the hitter he did last year, but with a few fewer K and a few more BB. Those plate discipline changes could make a big difference, but I am dubious that Perez is going to put up another season like his 2021 with 48 home runs. If you have someone salivating at the thought of a 40-homer C, I would see if you can sell high on Perez. If not, enjoy the highs and the lows – he’ll produce as a solid starting C in Ottoneu.

Perez’s teammate, Michael Massey, was losing roster share for a while but has turned things on lately, hitting two HR and putting up a .466 wOBA since May 3. A .500 BABIP will do that, but there are some really positive signs, as he has brought his K-rate down from atrocious to a manageable 27.5% during that run while also walking more than 12% of the time. His exit velocity is way up, he is elevating the ball more, and his barrel rate is moving up, as well. I liked Massey a lot pre-season and I want to buy back in now, but he is still a $3 or less flyer. I could see spending more where I need MI and have the cash, though.

Michael Wacha is still rostered in just 41.03% of leagues, despite putting up more than 5 P/IP in each of his last three starts and more than 6 P/IP in two of those three. He has had some HR/FB luck over that stretch, be he also plays in a park that will help him keep the HR down. He’s not an ace, no matter what he did in his last start, but he should be rostered more highly than he is.