Starting Pitcher Chart – May 12th, 2025
by Paul Sporer
May 12, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
2-start board update coming Monday morning!
—
Afternoon update: sorry for the extreme delay on the 2-start board. Charlotte is taking prednisone for a little hip/back issue and the side effects are kickin’ her butt a bit, including needing to go out every 60-90 minutes to do her business so I was up most of the night and then crashed for a bit this morning when my gf woke up and could take care of Char.
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Starter Notes May 12, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael King | SDP v LAA | x | x | x | 44 | 2.22 | 0.99 | 19% | 23rd | Still prefer Skenes rest of season, but it’s a much better matchup for King |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT at NYM | x | x | x | 48 | 2.77 | 0.95 | 18% | 11th | You’d like better than his 25% K rate, but he’s still been amazing |
| 3 | Tyler Mahle | TEX v COL | x | x | x | 42 | 1.48 | 0.98 | 10% | 28th | 2-start this wk w/a start v. HOU on the wknd followed by a trip to CHW next wk |
| 4 | Freddy Peralta | MIL at CLE | x | x | x | 45 | 2.18 | 1.04 | 18% | 19th | Has allowed >2 ER just 1x (3 at SFG) elevating him to SP15 on the Player Rater |
| 5 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI v STL | x | x | x | 37 | 2.89 | 1.23 | 19% | 9th | Unfazed by the minor lg dimensins at TBR w/6 shutout IP of 1-hit ball |
| 6 | Michael Wacha | KCR at HOU | x | x | x | 45 | 2.98 | 1.15 | 11% | 24th | Dealing since he allowed 4 v. BAL back in early-Apr: 2.52 ERA/1.05 WHIP in 6 starts |
| 7 | Merrill Kelly | ARI at SFG | x | x | x | 44 | 4.09 | 1.05 | 12% | 13th | That 9 ER in the Bronx will inflate his home/road ERA all yr; just 3 ER in 16.7 road IP across 3 starts since |
| 8 | Ryan Gusto | HOU v KCR | x | x | x | 27 | 2.93 | 1.27 | 18% | 25th | Rejoining the rotation w/Wesneski’s injury and now lines up for a spicy 2-step |
| 9 | Colin Rea | CHC v MIA | x | x | x | 29 | 2.43 | 1.21 | 15% | 22nd | Limiting HRs has taken him from his usual #4-5 SP realm to more of a #2-3 and this v. MIA and v. CHW 2-step is worth looking at everywhere… even if the #s regress a bit, W potential is still very high |
| 10 | Matthew Liberatore | STL at PHI | x | x | x | 41 | 3.07 | 0.95 | 20% | 10th | PHI isn’t easy, but I’m starting him everywhere right now |
| 11 | David Peterson | NYM v PIT | x | x | x | 38 | 3.52 | 1.38 | 14% | 28th | A pair of errors salvaged his ERA at ARI (4 R/2 ER) as he remains firmly on the tightrope w/this ERA/WHIP combo |
| 12 | Grant Holmes | ATL v WSN | x | x | 39 | 4.58 | 1.25 | 12% | 18th | Litmus test 2-step wk for Holmes w/at BOS looming on the wknd; didn’t see a 12% BB coming but w/just 3 in his L2, maybe he’s improving? Schedule stays intense after this wk: SDP, at PHI, ARI | |
| 13 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY at SEA | x | x | 20 | 4.79 | 1.40 | 10% | 3rd | 1st real gem of the yr last time out v. SDP; devastating 2-step w/4th and 5th ranked tms in wOBA vR | |
| 14 | Jake Irvin | WSN at ATL | x | 48 | 3.94 | 1.15 | 10% | 14th | Curvin’ Jake Irvin has a 3.09 ERA/0.97 WHIP over his L5 (32 IP) and that’s inflated by an ugly 3-run 1st inn. at PHI (5 IP/3 ER after that); 10% K-BB & 1.4 HR9 do undercut the viability of the run w/a .196 BABIP doing most of the work | ||
| 15 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA at SDP | x | 42 | 3.83 | 1.46 | 10% | 4th | Good in 4 of his L5, but the 5th was 2 IP/4 ER/4 BB/0 K at MIN and now you’re staring down the barrel of an at SDP/at LAD 2-step… goooood luck! | ||
| 16 | Ben Lively | CLE v MIL | x | 41 | 3.46 | 1.20 | 9% | 20th | Now featuring colored smoke and even more mirrors! | ||
| 17 | Tanner Houck | BOS at DET | x | 41 | 6.10 | 1.50 | 10% | 10th | Those 11 ER at TBR are obscuring a solid 3.57 ERA over his L4 w/a 1.17 WHIP and 17% K-BB in 22.7 IP; not diving in head-first, but he’s at least back on the table for a 2-step wk (v. ATL this wknd) | ||
| 18 | Justin Verlander | SFG v ARI | 42 | 4.50 | 1.31 | 11% | 2nd | It’s really gotta be aces-only v. ARI and it’s not like JV is fully earning the 2.70 ERA over his L4 | |||
| 19 | Emerson Hancock | SEA v NYY | 23 | 5.70 | 1.56 | 10% | 4th | Pitching pretty well since DET trounced him for 6 ER in just 2/3rds an IP, but w/at SDP looming on the wknd, this is remarkably tough 2-step… be careful | |||
| 20 | Jackson Jobe | DET v BOS | 27 | 4.88 | 1.48 | 4% | 8th | Getting cooked in Coors isn’t entirely disqualifying even w/how bad COL’s been, buuuuttt he was walking a tightrope well before this start rending him cuttable in many formats | |||
| 21 | Chase Dollander | COL at TEX | 28 | 7.71 | 1.64 | 9% | 26th | Solid matchup and out of Coors, buuuttt I’m just not sure there’s enough upside | |||
| 22 | Cal Quantrill | MIA at CHC | 31 | 7.11 | 1.67 | 8% | 5th | Yes, offff course he drops a 5 IP/1 ER/6 K gm on LAD, lol… I love baseball!! |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
—
2-START CHART
2-Start Chart for the Week of May 12th
| RANK | PITCHER | TYPE | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | Pitch+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael King | 1 | LAA/SEA | 44.2 | 2.22 | 0.99 | 19% | 104 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 1 | at NYM/at PHI | 48.2 | 2.77 | 0.95 | 18% | 105 |
| 3 | Max Fried | 1 | at SEA/NYM | 51.2 | 1.05 | 0.91 | 17% | 102 |
| 4 | Cristopher Sánchez | 1 | STL/PIT | 37.1 | 2.89 | 1.23 | 19% | 98 |
| 5 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 2 | WAS/at BOS | 47.1 | 3.61 | 1.12 | 18% | 108 |
| 6 | Tyler Mahle | 2 | COL/HOU | 42.2 | 1.48 | 0.98 | 10% | 113 |
| 7 | Matthew Liberatore | 2 | at PHI/at KCR | 41 | 3.07 | 0.95 | 20% | 108 |
| 8 | Ryan Gusto | 3 | KCR/at TEX | 27.2 | 2.93 | 1.27 | 18% | 97 |
| 9 | Shane Baz | 3 | at TOR/at MIA | 38.1 | 4.93 | 1.33 | 16% | 100 |
| 10 | Colin Rea | 3 | MIA/CWS | 29.2 | 2.43 | 1.21 | 15% | 100 |
| 11 | Michael Wacha | 3 | at HOU/STL | 45.1 | 2.98 | 1.15 | 11% | 101 |
| 12 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | 3 | at SFG/COL | 44 | 4.09 | 1.05 | 12% | 107 |
| 13 | Clarke Schmidt | 3 | at SEA/NYM | 20.2 | 4.79 | 1.40 | 10% | 100 |
| 14 | David Peterson | 3 | PIT/at NYY | 38.1 | 3.52 | 1.38 | 14% | 103 |
| 15 | José Berríos | 3 | TBR/DET | 46.2 | 3.86 | 1.41 | 12% | 95 |
| 16 | Andrew Abbott | 4 | CHW/CLE | 24 | 2.25 | 1.17 | 19% | 93 |
| 17 | Grant Holmes | 4 | WAS/at BOS | 39.1 | 4.58 | 1.25 | 12% | 100 |
| 18 | Michael Soroka | 4 | at ATL/at BAL | 10 | 7.20 | 1.30 | 19% | 103 |
| 19 | Justin Verlander | 4 | ARI/ATH | 42 | 4.50 | 1.31 | 11% | 96 |
| 20 | Tanner Houck | 4 | at DET/ATL | 41.1 | 6.10 | 1.50 | 10% | 105 |
| 21 | Jake Irvin | 4 | at ATL/at BAL | 48 | 3.94 | 1.15 | 10% | 105 |
| 22 | Emerson Hancock | 4 | NYY/at SDP | 23.2 | 5.70 | 1.56 | 10% | 102 |
| 23 | Yusei Kikuchi | 4 | at SDP/at LAD | 42.1 | 3.83 | 1.46 | 10% | 107 |
| 24 | Jackson Jobe | 4 | BOS/at TOR | 27.2 | 4.88 | 1.48 | 4% | 96 |
| 25 | Ben Lively 라이블리 | 5 | MIL/at CIN | 41.2 | 3.46 | 1.20 | 9% | 105 |
| 26 | Cade Povich | 5 | MIN/WAS | 35.2 | 5.55 | 1.54 | 11% | 105 |
| 27 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 5 | at BAL/at MIL | 33.2 | 4.01 | 1.43 | 13% | 99 |
| 28 | Jack Leiter | 5 | COL/HOU | 23 | 5.09 | 1.30 | 7% | 89 |
| 29 | Jeffrey Springs | 5 | at LAD/at SFG | 39.1 | 4.81 | 1.42 | 7% | 96 |
| 30 | Chase Dollander | 6 | at TEX/at ARI | 28 | 7.71 | 1.64 | 9% | 90 |
| 31 | Jonathan Cannon | 6 | at CIN/at CHC | 44 | 4.09 | 1.45 | 8% | 102 |
| 32 | Cal Quantrill | 6 | at CHC/TBR | 31.2 | 7.11 | 1.67 | 8% | 100 |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
TYPE Key:
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
Have a Oc that is sitting at 2 overall with complete lack of closers (Munoz). I now have 4 speculative guys, Bednar, Martin, Romano, Tinoco. If I had to start 2 of the last 4, how would you rank them?