Starting Pitcher Chart – May 12th

May 12, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Friday, May 12th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	at	TOR	R	x	x	x	4 of his 7 outings have gone exactly 5 IP due in large part to his huge K rate running up his pitch counts
2	Gerrit Cole	NYY		TBR	R	x	x	x	HR rate isn’t necessarily fixed w/just a 5% HR/FB that will likely at least regress to his 12% career mark if not the 16% of his last 4 yrs
3	Corbin Burnes	MIL		KCR	R	x	x	x	10 ER in his first 2, 7 ER since… just 26 Ks in 30.3 IP in that time, though
4	Sonny Gray	MIN		CHC	R	x	x	x	The ERA will rise, but he’s an easy Auto Start
5	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	at	MIA	R	x	x	x	Nightmare 8 ER outing pushed ERA more in line w/his modest skills output; matchup too good not to jump back in, though
6	Chris Bassitt	TOR		ATL	R	x	x	x	Very high BB rate (13%) since his ugly opener (9 ER), but hard to argue w/2.45 ERA & 1.08 WHIP… was drafted as a full-time starter & has re-earned that status
7	Logan Allen	CLE		LAA	L	x	x	x	Rolling so far and while I don’t see him maintaining a 2.70 ERA, I’m happy to start him everywhere w/these skills (27% K, 7% BB)
8	Eury Pérez	MIA		CIN	R	x	x	x	The latest elite prospect getting the call and will draw massive bids w/a great outing here
9	Drew Smyly	CHC	at	MIN	L	x	x	x	36 pitch 1st inning stunted his last outing; still hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER since his season debut (6 ER at CIN)
10	MacKenzie Gore	WSN		NYM	L	x	x	x	Just 5 total BB in his L3 after walking 4 in 3 of his first 4 starts… the control makes him risky every time out, but I’m riding w/him
11	Martín Pérez	TEX	at	OAK	L	x	x	x	Told y’all he’d regress… sure, it took a season-plus so I was wrong all of last yr, but still… I’ll roll w/him here
12	Kyle Bradish	BAL		PIT	R	x	x	x	Has just been OK since the 7 ER dud, but I’m sticking with him
13	Tyler Anderson	LAA	at	CLE	L	x	x	x	Just 3 ER in his last 2 starts, but 8 BB and 10 H had him working out of many jams… in for the stream v. sputtering CLE, though
14	Matthew Boyd	DET		SEA	L		x	x	Now has a 15% SwStr in his L4 which has generated a 23% K rate but could deliver much more if he maintains
15	Blake Snell	SDP	at	LAD	L		x	x	3 or fewer ER in his L4 yielding a 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 13% K-BB in 22 IP
16	Dustin May	LAD		SDP	R		x	x	6% SwStr and 10% BB rates are worse than his pre-injury levels as the .198 BABIP & 0.2 HR are hard-carrying his sparkling ratios… be careful
17	J.P. France	HOU	at	CHW	R		x	x	Great debut and sets up w/an excellent matchup to stay hot; will see another jump in roster rate if this one is successful
18	Johan Oviedo	PIT	at	BAL	R			x	Needs that .341 BABIP to start coming down as he’s allowed 25 H in his L3
19	Alex Wood	SFG	at	ARI	L			x	That WHIP says the ERA is headed upward and that will definitely happen when his 0% HR/FB starts creeping upward; also walking 2x his normal rate which should improve
20	Adam Wainwright	STL	at	BOS	R				Not enough upside to take on this tough matchup
21	Michael Kopech	CHW		HOU	R				HRs and BB off the charts making him tough to start anywhere… I’m out everywhere right now
22	Ken Waldichuk	OAK		TEX	L				Hasn’t been able to carry over skills from last yr’s MLB sample (16% K-BB, 12% SwStr) while allowing far too many homers
23	Tylor Megill	NYM	at	WSN	R				Skills just haven’t been there since returning from injury after that big flourish to start 2022
24	James Paxton	BOS		STL	L				1st MLB start since 2021; had some control issues in his 6-outing rehab — 6.23 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 10% K-BB in 22 IP
25	Marco Gonzales	SEA	at	DET	L				Deep lg streamer at best but maybe not in this matchup as DET has surged vL after sitting dead last in wOBA through the first 10 days of the season
26	Ryne Nelson	ARI		SFG	R				Meager 8% SwStr really limits his upside even if and when the .331 BABIP regresses
27	Taijuan Walker	PHI	at	COL	R				Absolutely not
28	Austin Gomber	COL		PHI	L				Hard to find road starts where I’m comfortable w/Gomber let alone his Coors outings
29	Trevor Kelley	TBR	at	NYY	R				Josh Fleming is the primary… not interested in him or Kelley
30	Josh Taylor	KCR	at	MIL	L				Max Castillo is the primary… not interested in him or Taylor

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Friday, May 12th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	at	TOR	R	x	x	x	40	2.70	0.93	34%	0.317	12th
2	Gerrit Cole	NYY		TBR	R	x	x	x	51.2	2.09	1.01	21%	0.345	4th
3	Corbin Burnes	MIL		KCR	R	x	x	x	39.2	3.86	1.13	11%	0.311	18th
4	Sonny Gray	MIN		CHC	R	x	x	x	40	1.35	1.10	20%	0.330	7th
5	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	at	MIA	R	x	x	x	37.2	3.82	1.33	8%	0.276	29th
6	Chris Bassitt	TOR		ATL	R	x	x	x	40	4.28	1.23	8%	0.329	8th
7	Logan Allen	CLE		LAA	L	x	x	x	16.2	2.70	1.26	20%	0.318	16th
8	Eury Pérez	MIA		CIN	R	x	x	x	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.295	23rd
9	Drew Smyly	CHC	at	MIN	L	x	x	x	38.1	3.05	0.99	16%	0.283	27th
10	MacKenzie Gore	WSN		NYM	L	x	x	x	37	3.65	1.43	18%	0.306	21st
11	Martín Pérez	TEX	at	OAK	L	x	x	x	37.1	3.86	1.55	10%	0.335	12th
12	Kyle Bradish	BAL		PIT	R	x	x	x	19.2	5.95	1.73	10%	0.319	13th
13	Tyler Anderson	LAA	at	CLE	L	x	x	x	31.2	5.40	1.64	5%	0.250	30th
14	Matthew Boyd	DET		SEA	L		x	x	30.2	5.28	1.34	13%	0.273	28th
15	Blake Snell	SDP	at	LAD	L		x	x	35	4.89	1.57	12%	0.302	24th
16	Dustin May	LAD		SDP	R		x	x	40.1	2.68	0.94	9%	0.294	24th
17	J.P. France	HOU	at	CHW	R		x	x	5	0.00	0.80	20%	0.285	26th
18	Johan Oviedo	PIT	at	BAL	R			x	37	5.59	1.62	10%	0.313	17th
19	Alex Wood	SFG	at	ARI	L			x	10	1.80	1.40	11%	0.307	20th
20	Adam Wainwright	STL	at	BOS	R				5	7.20	1.60	22%	0.359	2nd
21	Michael Kopech	CHW		HOU	R				37.2	5.97	1.57	8%	0.281	27th
22	Ken Waldichuk	OAK		TEX	L				36	7.25	1.75	8%	0.374	3rd
23	Tylor Megill	NYM	at	WSN	R				35.1	4.33	1.50	6%	0.300	21st
24	James Paxton	BOS		STL	L				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.329	14th
25	Marco Gonzales	SEA	at	DET	L				30.2	4.70	1.47	9%	0.369	4th
26	Ryne Nelson	ARI		SFG	R				36	6.00	1.53	8%	0.328	10th
27	Taijuan Walker	PHI	at	COL	R				34.2	5.97	1.41	12%	0.311	19th
28	Austin Gomber	COL		PHI	L				33.1	6.75	1.59	4%	0.292	26th
29	Trevor Kelley	TBR	at	NYY	R				2	9.00	1.50	-10%	0.281	28th
30	Josh Taylor	KCR	at	MIL	L				11	6.55	1.36	23%	0.250	29th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Thursday, May 11th Starter Review

Paul’s RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	T	10	12	15	NOTE
1	Drew Rasmussen	TBR	at	NYY	R	x	x	x	Beautiful outing… 7 scoreless on just 76 pitches
2	Bailey Ober	MIN		SDP	R	x	x	x	Solid baseline QS w/his first 2 HR of the season
3	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	at	OAK	R	x	x	x	Came up just shy of the Shutout w/13 Ks in 113 pitches, he’s rolling!
4	Yu Darvish	SDP	at	MIN	R	x	x	x	Great work in the duel w/Ober for the unquestioned ace
5	Alex Cobb	SFG	at	ARI	R	x	x	x	Strong outing, wish the Ks would jump (3 Ks, 5 Swinging Strikes)
6	Kodai Senga	NYM	at	CIN	R		x	x	First 5 ER start of his MLB career, but it wasn’t the BB w/just 1 (14% season BB rate)
7	Domingo Germán	NYY		TBR	R			x	3 straight HR-free outings yielding a 1.89 ERA in 19 IP
8	Mike Clevinger	CHW	at	KCR	R			x	Meh… OK start, but doesn’t add any trust in him going forward
9	Brady Singer	KCR		CHW	R				Probably hit a lot of waiver wires this wk and then dropped a solid outing, still very nervous about him
10	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN		NYM	R				Not a bad 3 IP follow, but not fantasy viability right now
11	Tommy Henry	ARI		SFG	L				Decent enough 4.43 ERA in 4 starts, but a 0% K-BB says it won’t last
12	Luis Medina	OAK		TEX	L				Hogan Harris was listed… Medina put up a decent baseline QS w/0 BB

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues