Starting Pitcher Chart – May 11th
by Paul Sporer
May 11, 2023
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a pretty risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Thursday, May 11th Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Rasmussen | TBR | at | NYY | R | x | x | x | More 0 ER outings (4) than not (3) |
| 2 | Bailey Ober | MIN | SDP | R | x | x | x | 3 HR-free starts so far after cutting the HRs big time last yr, if that maintains he has top 35-40 starter upside for the season | |
| 3 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | at | OAK | R | x | x | x | Looking studly thus far, now we pray he can stay healthy |
| 4 | Yu Darvish | SDP | at | MIN | R | x | x | x | BB spike hasn’t (+4 pts to 9%) hasn’t really hurt him |
| 5 | Alex Cobb | SFG | at | ARI | R | x | x | x | Living off an 88% LOB rate right as that 1.24 WHIP will eventually raise his ERA, but the 3.08 SIERA isn’t bad |
| 6 | Kodai Senga | NYM | at | CIN | R | x | x | I don’t mind sitting him if your WHIP is bad in any matchup, but I’m also nervous about his 1.4 HR rate in Cincy… not a slam dunk start anywhere | |
| 7 | Domingo Germán | NYY | TBR | R | x | Fantastic swing-and-miss skills (28% K, 16% SwStr, 39% Chase), but a career-long HR issue that makes him terrifying in this matchup even after success v. them last time out | |||
| 8 | Mike Clevinger | CHW | at | KCR | R | x | Still dropping occasional gems enough to be a streamer consideration, but I’m nowhere near seeking him out at this juncture | ||
| 9 | Brady Singer | KCR | CHW | R | 5 outings w/5+ ER w/major HR & BABIP surges; 4.40 SIERA offers hope for deep lg viability as his 51% LOB rate pushes back toward his 71% career mark | ||||
| 10 | Ben Lively 라이블리 | CIN | NYM | R | Returning from the KBO where he did fine, but still just a low-4.00s ERA and 9% SwStr | ||||
| 11 | Tommy Henry | ARI | SFG | L | I just don’t see any real upside | ||||
| 12 | Hogan Harris | OAK | TEX | L | This isn’t a confirmed start yet… worth noting those stats came in a whopping 1/3rd of an inning |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Thursday, May 11th Starter Stats
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Rasmussen | TBR | at | NYY | R | x | x | x | 37.2 | 3.11 | 1.19 | 19% | 0.286 | 28th |
| 2 | Bailey Ober | MIN | SDP | R | x | x | x | 18.1 | 0.98 | 0.87 | 15% | 0.293 | 23rd | |
| 3 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | at | OAK | R | x | x | x | 44.2 | 3.22 | 1.10 | 21% | 0.315 | 18th |
| 4 | Yu Darvish | SDP | at | MIN | R | x | x | x | 36.2 | 3.19 | 1.12 | 18% | 0.307 | 20th |
| 5 | Alex Cobb | SFG | at | ARI | R | x | x | x | 40.1 | 2.01 | 1.24 | 19% | 0.315 | 17th |
| 6 | Kodai Senga | NYM | at | CIN | R | x | x | 32 | 3.38 | 1.47 | 10% | 0.301 | 21st | |
| 7 | Domingo Germán | NYY | TBR | R | x | 39.1 | 4.35 | 0.94 | 21% | 0.349 | 4th | |||
| 8 | Mike Clevinger | CHW | at | KCR | R | x | 35.1 | 4.84 | 1.53 | 11% | 0.302 | 22nd | ||
| 9 | Brady Singer | KCR | CHW | R | 33.2 | 8.82 | 1.60 | 14% | 0.285 | 29th | ||||
| 10 | Ben Lively 라이블리 | CIN | NYM | R | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 0.328 | 11th | ||||
| 11 | Tommy Henry | ARI | SFG | L | 15.2 | 5.17 | 1.53 | 0% | 0.326 | 13th | ||||
| 12 | Hogan Harris | OAK | TEX | L | 0.1 | 162.00 | 18.00 | -63% | 0.373 | 3rd |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Wednesday, May 10th Starter Review
| Paul’s RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | T | 10 | 12 | 15 | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | at | MIL | L | x | x | x | Another masterpiece by a true legend |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | SEA | TEX | R | x | x | x | Tough 3rd inn. where all 3 ER happened, but also 3 swinging Ks | |
| 3 | Pablo López | MIN | SDP | R | x | x | x | Easier to survive 4 BB when you allow just 2 H; love the 17 swinging strikes | |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | NYM | at | CIN | R | x | x | x | Vintage Verlander looked great on Wednesday evening |
| 5 | Cristian Javier | HOU | at | LAA | R | x | x | x | Heating up with 35 Ks in his last 4 starts |
| 6 | Justin Steele | CHC | STL | L | x | x | x | Not his best, hardly his worst — good enough for his 6th W of the yr | |
| 7 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | TOR | R | x | x | x | 1st time reaching 7 IP this yr, excellent start | |
| 8 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | at | PHI | R | x | x | x | Bounced back from his 2nd dud of the yr |
| 9 | Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | at | CLE | L | x | x | x | 3rd time going 7+ w/0 ER in his L4, just 1 ER in that other start |
| 10 | Lance Lynn | CHW | at | KCR | R | x | x | x | OK, these HRs just aren’t subsiding w/2 more Wednesday; I’m still riding the 2-step next wk, but it’s cut time if he falters |
| 11 | Seth Lugo | SDP | at | MIN | R | x | x | x | Probably still more upper-3s/low-4s ERA kinda guy, especially w/that WHIP (1.29) |
| 12 | Josiah Gray | WSN | at | SFG | R | x | x | x | Withstood tying his season-high of 4 BB, let’s hope it’s a blip & not a return of problematic control |
| 13 | Peyton Battenfield | CLE | DET | R | x | x | x | Was hoping he’d keep rolling after the MIN gem, but this wasn’t great | |
| 14 | Jordan Montgomery | STL | at | CHC | L | x | x | x | 2nd dud of the yr — 2 HR, just 4 swinging strikes; still starting for next wk’s 2-step |
| 15 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | MIA | R | x | x | x | Wasn’t great but no regrets starting him (6 IP/4 ER/6 K) | |
| 16 | Hunter Greene | CIN | NYM | R | x | x | Survived a HR and 4 BB for a pretty good outing | ||
| 17 | Griffin Canning | LAA | HOU | R | x | x | Another guy done in by OBI (One Bad Inning): 4 1B (incl. 1 infield), 2 BB, and a HBP led to 4 runs | ||
| 18 | Wade Miley | MIL | LAD | L | x | There was big risk if you took this chance & it flopped thanks in part to 3 HRs | |||
| 19 | Dane Dunning | TEX | at | SEA | R | x | Really nice outing here included a 17% SwStr and 5 Ks in 6 IP | ||
| 20 | Jhony Brito | NYY | OAK | R | x | Couldn’t really leverage the easy matchup w/just 4.3 IP | |||
| 21 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | at | PIT | R | x | Left early with forearm tightness | ||
| 22 | Brayan Bello | BOS | at | ATL | R | x | Best start of the season (6 IP/2 ER) and now 4 straight w/3 or fewer ER | ||
| 23 | Rich Hill | PIT | COL | L | x | First start in 6 where he didn’t go at least 5 IP | |||
| 24 | Yonny Chirinos | TBR | at | BAL | R | x | Another good ERA (5 IP/2 ER) w/disastrous skills (4 BB, 1 K) | ||
| 25 | Sean Manaea | SFG | WSN | L | Saved by 4 UER and it was still disaster (8 R in 2.7 IP) | ||||
| 26 | Dean Kremer | BAL | TBR | R | Dropped a hot 6 scoreless, but who was going to trust him there?? | ||||
| 27 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | at | ARI | R | Needn’t be on a roster anywhere right now | |||
| 28 | Kyle Muller | OAK | at | NYY | L | Blasted again w/a 3-run HR from Bader leading to a 4-run 1st | |||
| 29 | Jared Shuster | ATL | BOS | L | They went w/a bullpen game instead | ||||
| 30 | Brad Keller | KCR | CHW | R | Just 1 ER is good, of course, but 4 BB & 4 Ks |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Paul — First off, appreciate these consistent posts. Love going through these each morning. Quick question, and the answer will obviously vary pitcher to pitcher, but trying to understand your reasoning: A lot of your notes pertain to recent outings, do you think those results are due to fundamental changes or simply they haven’t reached an adequate sample size? I.e., Bailey Ober limiting HR’s. He has a 26 GB% and is still projected around 1.4 HR/9 ROS. Has he made strides or is he facing impending regression?
Thanks again for all that you do!