Starting Pitcher Chart – May 10th

May 10, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Wednesday, May 10th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	at	MIL	L	x	x	x	What if he made 30 starts? He almost certainly won’t, but what iffff??
2	Luis Castillo	SEA		TEX	R	x	x	x	Allowed 4 ER for the first time this year, but still went 7… 15% SwStr is a 3-yr best
3	Pablo López	MIN		SDP	R	x	x	x	Skills never faltered even after a couple tough outings… 15% SwStr is a career best
4	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	Looked solid in his season debut and he should be back into every lineup
5	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	LAA	R	x	x	x	Hasn’t quite had the next level jump some were expecting, but he’s been great and could still take off at some pt in the season
6	Justin Steele	CHC		STL	L	x	x	x	Pitching beautifully right now, though it’d be great to see some extra Ks (22%)
7	Zack Wheeler	PHI		TOR	R	x	x	x	He should be able to work his 63% LOB, .340 BABIP toward his career marks of 74% and .298
8	Kevin Gausman	TOR	at	PHI	R	x	x	x	15 of his 18 ER in 2 outings, excellent otherwise so obviously an easy start
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET	at	CLE	L	x	x	x	Pitching some of his best baseball right now, but not a lot of changes to suggest he’s more than a solid mid-3.00s arm
10	Lance Lynn	CHW	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	The K-BB is fantastic, but it can’t save you from a 2.1 HR… I’m still starting him as I believe he will rebound
11	Seth Lugo	SDP	at	MIN	R	x	x	x	WHIP is running high thanks to 9.9 H, but it’s hard to ignore the 3.21 ERA
12	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	An 8-pt. jump in GB% has helped cut his HR rate in half (1.2); HRs can still creep up, but it’s hard to sit him anywhere right now
13	Peyton Battenfield	CLE		DET	R	x	x	x	A gem v. MIN w/7 Ks, finally flexing that 14% SwStr rate for some results
14	Jordan Montgomery	STL	at	CHC	L	x	x	x	The only trustworthy Cardinals SP right now
15	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		MIA	R	x	x	x	Working around 12% BB thanks to .206 AVG, down 19 pts from last yr
16	Hunter Greene	CIN		NYM	R		x	x	HR/FB is in half at 8% and WHIP is riding high so there could be some skip spots in shallower leagues
17	Griffin Canning	LAA		HOU	R		x	x	Missed a couple pitches v. StL (Contreras 2B, Edman HR) & it sank the outing, but skills are still enticing
18	Wade Miley	MIL		LAD	L			x	Neither the 82% LOB nor 4% HR/FB will maintain at that level, but he does have standard streamer value
19	Dane Dunning	TEX	at	SEA	R			x	Excellent ratios, but nowhere near the skills to back it up (8% K-BB); looked solid in his starting debut (5 IP/0 ER)
20	Jhony Brito	NYY		OAK	R			x	OAK gives everyone at least some viability in deeper formats but that 6% K-BB isn’t a misprint
21	Antonio Senzatela	COL	at	PIT	R			x	Wasn’t bad in season debut at NYM; not a terrible road stream
22	Brayan Bello	BOS	at	ATL	R			x	BB improvement has made the HRs sting less, but he has allowed 1 per start… be careful here
23	Rich Hill	PIT		COL	L			x	Deep league streamer, but usually in 2-steps (gets DET next wk)
24	Yonny Chirinos	TBR	at	BAL	R			x	Velo is back to 2018-20 levels, but he has to get some more whiffs going to have confidence in him as a ratio asset
25	Sean Manaea	SFG		WSN	L				Holding velo gains from spring, but results haven’t followed (12% BB, 2.3 HR)
26	Dean Kremer	BAL		TBR	R				Hasn’t done enough to be a viable streamer, not that this matchup was ever a consideration
27	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	ARI	R				Has walked at least 4 in 4 of his 7 starts; he has an electric arm, but has only thrown more than 5 IP once
28	Kyle Muller	OAK	at	NYY	L				Remember when we had a little inkling of interest after his season debut? That was fun!
29	Jared Shuster	ATL		BOS	L				Hasn’t shown anything to get excited about
30	Brad Keller	KCR		CHW	R				Can’t trust a negative K-BB even in a good matchup

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Wednesday, May 10th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	at	MIL	L	x	x	x	42.2	2.53	0.98	23%	0.257	30th
2	Luis Castillo	SEA		TEX	R	x	x	x	41.2	2.38	0.91	21%	0.348	3rd
3	Pablo López	MIN		SDP	R	x	x	x	43	3.77	1.09	25%	0.289	27th
4	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	5	3.60	1.20	20%	0.304	20th
5	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	LAA	R	x	x	x	40.2	3.54	1.06	21%	0.331	9th
6	Justin Steele	CHC		STL	L	x	x	x	43.1	1.45	0.95	15%	0.328	12th
7	Zack Wheeler	PHI		TOR	R	x	x	x	38	4.26	1.24	21%	0.331	8th
8	Kevin Gausman	TOR	at	PHI	R	x	x	x	42	3.86	1.19	29%	0.336	5th
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET	at	CLE	L	x	x	x	44.2	1.81	0.78	19%	0.259	29th
10	Lance Lynn	CHW	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	39.1	6.86	1.53	20%	0.300	21st
11	Seth Lugo	SDP	at	MIN	R	x	x	x	33.2	3.21	1.34	16%	0.305	19th
12	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	38.2	3.03	1.34	13%	0.325	11th
13	Peyton Battenfield	CLE		DET	R	x	x	x	24.1	4.07	1.19	10%	0.292	25th
14	Jordan Montgomery	STL	at	CHC	L	x	x	x	41	3.29	1.22	17%	0.339	10th
15	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		MIA	R	x	x	x	39.1	2.75	1.19	13%	0.291	26th
16	Hunter Greene	CIN		NYM	R		x	x	33.2	3.74	1.43	23%	0.324	13th
17	Griffin Canning	LAA		HOU	R		x	x	20.1	5.31	1.33	12%	0.296	23rd
18	Wade Miley	MIL		LAD	L			x	35	2.31	1.06	11%	0.275	27th
19	Dane Dunning	TEX	at	SEA	R			x	25.1	1.42	0.79	8%	0.312	17th
20	Jhony Brito	NYY		OAK	R			x	26.2	6.08	1.46	6%	0.302	22nd
21	Antonio Senzatela	COL	at	PIT	R			x	5	1.80	0.80	11%	0.315	16th
22	Brayan Bello	BOS	at	ATL	R			x	17.1	5.71	1.73	16%	0.332	7th
23	Rich Hill	PIT		COL	L			x	37.2	4.54	1.46	13%	0.304	21st
24	Yonny Chirinos	TBR	at	BAL	R			x	19.1	1.86	0.78	3%	0.320	12th
25	Sean Manaea	SFG		WSN	L				23.1	7.33	1.63	13%	0.309	19th
26	Dean Kremer	BAL		TBR	R				35.2	5.80	1.54	11%	0.355	2nd
27	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	ARI	R				32	4.78	1.66	12%	0.356	1st
28	Kyle Muller	OAK	at	NYY	L				34	6.62	1.94	2%	0.326	15th
29	Jared Shuster	ATL		BOS	L				8.2	8.31	2.42	-9%	0.318	18th
30	Brad Keller	KCR		CHW	R				34.2	4.67	1.82	-2%	0.282	29th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Tuesday, May 9th Starter Review

Paul’s RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	T	10	12	15	NOTE
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAA		HOU	R	x	x	x	A 3-run 5th was the only damage, but enough for the L given how well Valdez pitched
2	Zach Eflin	TBR	at	BAL	R	x	x	x	One tough inning (3 ER) gave him his 1st 4 ER of the yr, still fine v. a good tm
3	Framber Valdez	HOU	at	LAA	L	x	x	x	Framberto with the big 12-K outing!!
4	Shane Bieber	CLE		DET	R	x	x	x	The Ks returned! 9 with 19 swinging strikes, both season-highs
5	Lucas Giolito	CHW	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	A season-high 9 Ks & he’s now rolling w/a 2.33 ERA in his L6 starts
6	Jesús Luzardo	MIA	at	ARI	L	x	x	x	ERA is on point, time to start chiseling down that 1.41 WHIP
7	Logan Webb	SFG		WSN	R	x	x	x	The rare strong K gm v. WSN (7 in 7 IP)
8	Andrew Heaney	TEX	at	SEA	L	x	x	x	The longball got him late pushing him to 4 runs, but 1 UER saved his QS
9	Max Scherzer	NYM	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	Scratched w/a neck issue; Peterson wasn’t great in his stead
10	George Kirby	SEA		TEX	R	x	x	x	Fantastic work by Kirby in a tough matchup including a season-high 9 Ks
11	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI		MIA	R	x	x	x	Just no real command of his stuff, meatballs for days and another 2 HRs
12	Aaron Nola	PHI		TOR	R	x	x	x	A really sharp start against a difficult opponent as he chisels down the mid-4.00s ERA
13	Alek Manoah	TOR	at	PHI	R	x	x	x	Now has 4+ BB in 5 of his 8 starts, gonna be an interesting choice w/the 2-step next week (NYY, BAL)
14	Louie Varland	MIN		SDP	R	x	x	x	Excellent outing will garner attention in shallower formats where he should already be rostered
15	Clarke Schmidt	NYY		OAK	R	x	x	x	OAK remains the perfect Rx; best start of the yr for Schmidt
16	Charlie Morton	ATL		BOS	R		x	x	Has now gone 6+ IP 4 of L5, yielding a 2.97 ERA & 1.22 WHIP in 30.3 IP
17	Jameson Taillon	CHC		STL	R			x	Pretty rough in his 2 starts since returning from the IL
18	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL		TBR	R			x	Great outing v. the league’s best tm this yr (5.7 IP/2 ER) despite a couple HRs
19	Michael Wacha	SDP	at	MIN	R			x	3 straight solid streamer outings (2 of which were legit gems) in a row
20	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT		COL	R			x	Some unearned runs saved the start from a total dud, but just 1 K in 5 IP
21	Patrick Corbin	WSN	at	SFG	L			x	Another solid effort (6 IP/2 ER/3 K); gets a 2-step next wk (NYM, DET)
22	Eric Lauer	MIL		LAD	L			x	I’ll reiterate a pt from a couple wks ago: he’s just back to 2018-19 Lauer
23	Michael Lorenzen	DET	at	CLE	R			x	2 straight 7 IP/1 ER outings, but just 4 total Ks
24	Nick Pivetta	BOS	at	ATL	R				Easy skip in ATL (7 ER)
25	Noah Syndergaard	LAD	at	MIL	R				Nasty blister/cut ended his night after 1 inning & could lead to an IL stint, Gavin Stone back?
26	Jack Flaherty	STL	at	CHC	R				5 BB led to a 2.40 WHIP, he just can’t be trusted right now
27	Drew Rucinski 루친스키	OAK	at	NYY	R				Hasn’t been able to convert his KBO success in his return to the majors
28	Luke Weaver	CIN		NYM	R				3 HR and didn’t even have the Ks to counterbalance
29	Connor Seabold	COL	at	PIT	R				Solid outing, but not someone I’m ever really considering
30	Jordan Lyles	KCR		CHW	R				Allowed 4 ER, but went the distance w/6 Ks

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues