Reviewing the Rookie Starting Pitchers — Through May 8, 2023

Since fantasy owners generally always need starting pitching, we tend to jump on the new shiny toy that gets recalled from the minors in the hopes they could improve our pitching ratios. So let’s review the five rookie starting pitchers that have posted sub-4.00 SIERA marks so far.

It’s not often a rookie starter who posted a 3.52 ERA/2.38 SIERA after three starts gets demoted back to Triple-A. But that’s exactly what happened to Rays top prospect Taj Bradley. Apparently, the team sent him back down to transition him to a five-day schedule between starts. Surprisingly, he has struggled since returning to the minors, allowing a crazy 12 runs in 5.2 innings over two starts. Those struggles could perhaps delay his return to the Majors.

Flipping back to his three start performance, he posted an elite 38.3% strikeout rate. However, that was accomplished despite just a marginally above league average SwStk% and CSW%. So in other words, that strikeout rate looks quite fluky. He also allowed an extreme 52.9% FB%, which could get scary if/when his strikeout rate regresses, as that could result in quite a severe case of gopheritis. Clearly, his first three starts were exciting, though may have pushed expectations too high for his near-term future. That said, you have to hold him for now assuming he’ll be back in the Majors within the next month.

Wow, I love when a rookie is promoted and already makes two fantastic starts before FAAB bids are in. That’s what happened with Bryce Miller, the 69th ranked overall prospect, who has allowed just one run in his first two starts, while striking out 37.5% of opposing batters. I love it because it led to a 482 unit winning bid in AL Tout Wars, which is 48.2% of our initial 1,000 unit starting budget! I knew I wasn’t going to bid enough to win him, so I enjoyed watching another team spend a massive chunk of their budget on him.

It was odd timing for Miller to be recalled in the first place, as he had posted an ugly 6.41 ERA in 19.2 innings at Double-A before his recall and only struck out 21.2% of opposing batters. He completely skipped Triple-A, too, so it was hard to gauge before his first two MLB starts whether he ready to succeed at the highest level.

In his first two starts, he used his four-seamer a whole lot, just over 70% of the time. He complemented it mostly with his slider, but also threw some curveballs as well. While his four-seamer generated a strong 12.8% SwStk%, his slider and curveball failed to fool anyone. The slider generated just a 6.3% SwStk%, while he failed to generate a single whiff out of 15 curves. Those results make me really skeptical of his strikeout rate. He also allowed an extreme 62.5% FB%, so home runs could be an issue. I’m going to want to see his secondary pitches generate more swings and misses before I turn bullish, but right now, I think he makes for an ideal sell high candidate.

Injuries in the Twins rotation have allowed Louie Varland to be given another chance and I’m a fan. His fastball velocity has jumped, which has resulted in double digit SwStk% marks for both his slider and changeup, the latter of which sits in the mid-20% range, though over a small sample. He managed to strike out an amazing 40.3% of Triple-A batters this year, though that was driven by only a 13.7% SwStk%, which is well below what you’d expect for such an elite strikeout rate. It’s still strong though, just not as impressive as the strikeout rate.

His control has always been strong, so this is all about the velocity bump improving the qualify of his stuff. I’m writing this before his start against the Padres that occurred last night, though tonight relative to me writing this. Regardless of how he performed, I would pick him up if he’s still available, especially if you can confirm his four-seam velocity remains 95+.

It’s been a strange debut for top prospect Grayson Rodriguez, who has posted an ERA nearly two runs above his SIERA. That’s thanks to a crazy .371 BABIP and 20.8% HR/FB rate. However, with a 26.7% LD%, his Statcast fueled xERA sits at 4.76, so some of the weak batted ball results are seemingly deserved. The good news is he has struck out 29.8% of opposing batters, though that comes with just an 11.8% SwStk%. I would have expected higher given his minor league history.

So far, he’s showcased a decent trio of pitches, with his four-seamer, changeup, and slider all generating double digit SwStk%. His changeup has been best at 16.9%, but his slider has been below average, and both his lesser used cutter and curveball sit in single digits. It’s a good foundation, but perhaps he would benefit from consolidating his repertoire. I don’t think he needs to be a kitchen sink pitcher when he throws in the mid-to-high 90s with an excellent changeup.

Logan Allen, the one on the Guardians, and no, not the one that used to be on the Indians, but now plays for the Rockies, has enjoyed strong results through three starts and is one of three rookies in the team’s rotation currently. With strong strikeout rates backed by SwStk% marks no lower than 14.2% in the minors, he was someone I was interested in speculating on even in shallower leagues, but failed to be quick enough or bid enough.

The strikeouts have come despite averaging just 92.2 MPH with his four-seamer. The pitch has still generated a league average SwStk%, but has been complemented by a splitter generating a mid-teen SwStk%, and an excellent slider at 19%. His overall CSW% of 26.6% is unimpressive though, some either his whiff rate improves or called strike rate increases, otherwise it’ll be difficult to maintain a near 27% strikeout rate.

Given the inflated 87.9% LOB%, his ERA is clearly going to rise. His xERA is also a skyhigh 5.73, so Statcast hasn’t been enamored by the quality of contact he has allowed. He has yet to induce a pop-up, so that’s certainly inflating that xERA. I have mixed feelings here as you never know how lower velocity fastball pitchers are going to perform, as their minor league domination doesn’t always translate.