Starting Pitcher Chart – June 28th

June 28, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Wednesday, June 28th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Blake Snell	SDP	at	PIT	x	x	x	81	3.22	1.23	19%	17th	0.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 31% K-BB in L6 (5.40 ERA in first 9)
2	Logan Webb	SFG	at	TOR	x	x	x	105.1	3.16	1.10	19%	12th	NL’s version of Framber Valdez (well, a righty version), adding Ks to his already sharp ratios for a huge season!
3	Zach Eflin	TBR	at	ARI	x	x	x	83.1	3.35	1.03	21%	3rd	Hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any start this yr (3 starts of 4 ER)
4	Mitch Keller	PIT		SDP	x	x	x	99	3.45	1.11	21%	9th	Bounced back from the OAK dud w/a 2.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 19 IP
5	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	STL	x	x	x	83	3.25	1.12	16%	13th	8 BB and 5 K in his L3 w/just a 7% SwStr; still starting him, but keeping a close eye on this start
6	Dane Dunning	TEX		DET	x	x	x	71.2	2.76	1.17	7%	29th	6% HR/FB is doing a lot of the heavy lifting w/his ERA, though DET is unlikely to start the regression for Dunning
7	Logan Gilbert	SEA		WSN	x	x	x	86.1	4.07	1.02	21%	20th	Just 3 ER allowed in his last 2 starts after the 6 ER at LAA on 6/11
8	Aaron Nola	PHI	at	CHC	x	x	x	100.2	4.38	1.07	18%	25th	Enjoy the WHIP and hope that your other SPs can counterbalance his modest ERA
9	Braxton Garrett	MIA	at	BOS	x	x	x	76.2	3.64	1.15	24%	3rd	MLB-best 31% K-BB since 11 ER demolition turning himself into a Must-Start across all formats
10	Lucas Giolito	CHW	at	LAA	x	x	x	92.1	3.41	1.20	18%	2nd	Hitting another level in June with a 1.50 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 22% K-BB in 24 IP… I generally avoid LAA but I’m standing with Gio
11	Miles Mikolas	STL		HOU	x	x	x	93.2	4.23	1.36	12%	17th	HOU w/out Alvarez is similar to NYY w/out Judge and turns an otherwise scary matchup isn’t an appealing one
12	Wade Miley	MIL	at	NYM	x	x	x	52.2	2.91	1.03	10%	22nd	11 scoreless since returning from IL & doesn’t get enough credit for his 3.44 ERA/1.29 WHIP in 515 IP since 2018
13	Kodai Senga	NYM		MIL	x	x	x	76.2	3.52	1.34	15%	30th	The 0 BB gem v. PHI was just a one-off as he’s back to a 13% mark in his L4 (still a solid 3.74 ERA in that time)
14	Logan Allen	CLE	at	KCR	x	x	x	58.2	3.68	1.45	14%	27th	A 13% BB in 4 June starts has been a major reason why his ERA in up nearly a run (+96 pts to 3.68)
15	Jaime Barría	LAA		CHW		x	x	46.1	2.14	1.06	14%	24th	Has posted a 2.31 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 20% K-BB since joining the rotation as a 5-and-dive
16	JP Sears	OAK		NYY		x	x	83.1	4.10	1.03	19%	25th	The ratios (2.93 ERA/0.91 WHIP) have been worth it over his L8 despite just 1 W (& 3 decisions total)
17	Domingo Germán	NYY	at	OAK		x	x	72.1	5.10	1.18	14%	23rd	Ran off 4 HR-free gms to open May (1.64 ERA) & now has allowed 8 in the L5 (7.77)… good matchup, but he’s no guarantee when the HRs are flying
18	Drew Smyly	CHC		PHI		x	x	82.2	3.38	1.22	12%	12th	BB rate is up 2x to 11% in his L6 after a 5% in his first 9; still a team streamer everywhere, but doesn’t have to be started
19	Kenta Maeda	MIN	at	ATL				21	6.86	1.48	19%	1st	Nice return from the IL w/5 scoreless and 8 Ks at DET, but I’m out in for this matchup
20	Kyle Gibson	BAL		CIN				92	4.30	1.34	10%	4th	CIN hasn’t brought the fireworks to BAL yet, but I can’t get co-sign a Gibson start here
21	Luke Weaver	CIN	at	BAL				60.1	6.86	1.59	13%	7th	Credit to one of my Twitch viewers pointing out how much Weaver struggles in the 1st w/19 of his 46 ER
22	Zach Davies	ARI		TBR				35.2	7.82	1.82	7%	10th	Hard pass
23	Kolby Allard	ATL		MIN				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	21st	Getting a spot start after a pair of AAA outings that peaked at 62 pitches
24	Trevor Richards	TOR		SFG				35.2	3.53	1.15	25%	6th	Has gotten a couple 3 IP opens
25	Kyle Freeland	COL		LAD				85.1	4.54	1.39	8%	5th	#NeverCoors
26	Austin Cox	KCR		CLE				12.1	0.00	0.49	21%	9th	Sharp in a 3 2/3-inning follow at TBR but I’m still just watching, can’t imagine starting him anywhere
27	Patrick Corbin	WSN	at	SEA				89.2	5.32	1.61	7%	7th	No thanks
28	Joey Wentz	DET	at	TEX				67	6.72	1.58	11%	1st	Absolutely not in this matchup
29	Michael Grove	LAD	at	COL				32	7.59	1.53	15%	16th	Has some general intrigue but no shot we take the gamble in Coors
30	Kaleb Ort	BOS		MIA				18.2	5.79	1.55	14%	11th	Bullpen game

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues