Starting Pitcher Chart – June 27th

Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Pardon me for not mentioning in Friday’s piece that there wouldn’t be a Monday piece. I was on the road traveling over the weekend so I wasn’t able to get something together. Though with such a tiny slate, if there was ever a day to miss, it would’ve been Monday!
I’ll be live on Twitch at 8am CT reviewing Monday’s boxscores and playing Immaculate Grid if you’re interested!
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RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | CHW | x | x | x | 89 | 3.13 | 1.04 | 22% | 25th | Casually dropped 7 IP/1 ER and 12 Ks on the Dodgers… oh, and he’s leading MLB in HR & RBI! | |
2 | Framber Valdez | HOU | at | STL | x | x | x | 99 | 2.27 | 1.00 | 21% | 29th | Has gone fewer than 6 IP just 3x this yr while his 9 starts of 7+ IP are tied w/Logan Webb for an MLB-high |
3 | Joe Ryan | MIN | at | ATL | x | x | x | 93.2 | 2.98 | 0.91 | 23% | 1st | Studs push through a 5-run 3rd inning and still go 7… those are ERA savers! He rebounded from that start with a shut piece v. BOS including 9 Ks |
4 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | SFG | x | x | x | 98.2 | 3.10 | 1.16 | 25% | 6th | He has shaved 30 pts off his 2022 BABIP, but that’s still good for a .333 that sits 6th in the lg and yet he never leaves the lineup | |
5 | Zac Gallen | ARI | TBR | x | x | x | 98.1 | 2.84 | 1.09 | 21% | 8th | Never love facing the Rays, but also never sitting Gallen so we’ll see how it goes in a spicy 2-step (at LAA this wknd) | |
6 | Bryce Elder | ATL | MIN | x | x | x | 90 | 2.40 | 1.11 | 14% | 13th | 85% LOB stands out as unsustainable but I think he’s better than the 3.87 SIERA and project him for more of 3.30-3.50 ERA going forward | |
7 | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | MIA | x | x | x | 46 | 4.50 | 1.22 | 17% | 21st | Rolling w/3 straight 6+ IP outings (3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 21% K-BB in that time) | |
8 | Bryan Woo | SEA | WSN | x | x | x | 17.2 | 5.09 | 1.19 | 27% | 22nd | If you saw thru the ugly debut in a brutal matchup at TEX, you’ve been handsomely rewarded w/a 2.30 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, & 28% K-BB in 3 starts… still v early, but this is promising | |
9 | Yu Darvish | SDP | at | PIT | x | x | x | 80 | 4.84 | 1.23 | 18% | 29th | ERA is up over a run in his L5 w/a 7.27 ERA but I’m not finding myself sitting him anywhere as he still has an 18% K-BB, his velo equal to first 9 starts, and SwStr down less than 1 pt |
10 | Ranger Suárez | PHI | at | CHC | x | x | x | 43.2 | 3.50 | 1.28 | 15% | 19th | Just ask Justin Mason if he’s starting Suárez and if he’s not then start him because another gem is coming!! (1.38 ERA/1.06 WHIP/16% K-BB in L5) |
11 | Gavin Williams | CLE | at | KCR | x | x | x | 5.2 | 6.35 | 1.24 | 4% | 19th | Couldn’t take full advantage of the excellent debut landing spot but all 4 R came in one bad inning incl. a 3-R HR; still very much in on the young righty prospect |
12 | Tyler Wells | BAL | CIN | x | x | x | 86.2 | 3.22 | 0.89 | 21% | 3rd | Is the MLB leader in WHIP getting enough love?? Limiting base runners mitigates the downside of a 1.9 HR rate… being home adds confidence in this tough matchup! | |
13 | Taj Bradley | TBR | at | ARI | x | x | x | 49 | 3.86 | 1.20 | 27% | 4th | A couple bumpy outings have him at a 4.01 ERA since his recall (33.7 IP) but the 2.73 FIP and 24% K-BB are very encouraging, an easy start for me, even in tough matchups |
14 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | at | COL | x | x | x | 89.1 | 2.72 | 1.10 | 22% | 24th | I generally start my aces everywhere but I don’t begrudge anyone passing on Coors even w/their best, plus Kersh has a 5.96 ERA in his L5 starts there since ’19 |
15 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | at | BAL | x | x | 23.2 | 1.14 | 0.97 | 14% | 22nd | Far & away his best start in MLB out despite the 3 solo HRs (first ER of his career); finally saw the K dominance he showed in the minors (10 Ks, 18% SwStr) | |
16 | Jordan Montgomery | STL | HOU | x | x | 85.1 | 3.69 | 1.29 | 16% | 8th | Hasn’t been able to maintain last year’s great WHIP improvement (career-best 1.09) but reverting to his NYY form is still plenty useful | ||
17 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | at | BOS | x | x | 95.2 | 5.08 | 1.25 | 12% | 18th | I’m no longer blindly starting him, though I did appreciate that he still went 7 IP despite the 5 ER 2nd inn. v. TOR; 7 starts of 4+ ER already after just 4 last yr | |
18 | Michael Kopech | CHW | at | LAA | x | x | 82 | 4.06 | 1.29 | 15% | 2nd | Bumps in L7 starts largely tied to BB but 9% mark (40 IP) is way better than 15% in first 42 IP; scary spot, but I’m taking the plunge espec. in weekly to get at OAK this wknd | |
19 | Paul Blackburn | OAK | NYY | x | x | 25.2 | 4.21 | 1.48 | 20% | 28th | K spike is intriguing (+7 pts to 26%) as it’s been driven by better execution w/2-strikes as opposed to major skills improvement (less than 1% jump in SwStr) | ||
20 | David Peterson | NYM | MIL | x | x | 39 | 8.08 | 1.74 | 17% | 13th | 17% K-BB and 3.76 SIERA from his first 8 starts say better days are ahead and this could be the matchup to get the turnaround going | ||
21 | Jhony Brito | NYY | at | OAK | x | x | 46 | 4.89 | 1.37 | 7% | 23rd | He was cooked in the minors (7.08 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 7% K-BB) so while his return was nice v. SEA, this isn’t an automatic for me | |
22 | Martín Pérez | TEX | DET | x | 84.1 | 4.38 | 1.45 | 8% | 18th | Has 5 gems of 6+ IP & 2 or fewer ER across his L7, but the other 2 saw 13 ER in 8 IP so that’s the volatility you’re looking at w/him | |||
23 | Julio Teheran | MIL | at | NYM | x | 35.1 | 1.53 | 0.88 | 12% | 17th | A .211 BABIP and 90% LOB are doing allll the heavy lifting here so be careful because the Jurassic Park jello is jigglin’ as that Regression Monster nears | ||
24 | Rich Hill | PIT | SDP | x | 83 | 4.34 | 1.37 | 13% | 2nd | This Timex watch of a pitcher (sick reference, grandpa!) is always good for some bouts of streamer viability, but it’s limited to deep formats though the 5-yr high in IP/GS (5.5) is nice | |||
25 | Jake Irvin | WSN | at | SEA | x | 42 | 4.71 | 1.52 | 5% | 26th | Jirvin’s been servin’ of late w/B2B solid outings including an ARI outing that was particularly impressive, though I still don’t see him as much more than a deep lg lottery ticket | ||
26 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | PHI | 53.2 | 6.71 | 1.55 | 11% | 16th | He is neither executing anywhere near his best nor getting an ounce of good luck to cover some of the mistakes resulting in nearly a 2-run split between his ERA & SIERA (4.91) | ||||
27 | Alex Wood | SFG | at | TOR | 38.1 | 5.17 | 1.54 | 9% | 5th | Could find something in a follower role, but must reign in the control issues as a 14% mark in his L4 has fueled major volatility (1, 6, 0, 6 ER)… could see a deep lg Hail Mary at best | |||
28 | Matt Manning | DET | at | TEX | 11.2 | 4.63 | 1.29 | 8% | 5th | Tough spot coming off the IL; down to stash in 12s or deeper right now, though you can wait w/at COL coming this wknd | |||
29 | Brady Singer | KCR | CLE | 76.2 | 6.34 | 1.57 | 11% | 9th | I’ve lost pretty much all confidence in him and not even 2-start really appeals to me here | ||||
30 | Connor Seabold | COL | LAD | 56.2 | 5.88 | 1.48 | 9% | 20th | Never in Coors and I’m not sure there are any road starts I’d be all that interested in, either |
I would think Montgomery should be an easy enough choice against Houston at home these days, especially w/out Yordan nor apparently even Altuve.
12s and deeper is a pretty strong reco. Could easily have SEVERAL options better than him in a 10 at this juncture, though. Don’t forget, not reco’ing them in a format doesn’t mean they’re unplayable, but I’m not going out of my way to start him in a 10