Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – June 26th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin as soon as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Spunky: What’s up w Yu Darvish? Seems like he’s had a rough June and iirc he had a couple duds in May though I think the month itself overall wasn’t as bad as his June has been.

Justin Mason: Darvish was pretty lucky last year and getting  unlucky this year. The truth is somewhat in the middle. He has an xERA of 3.62 which is more in line with where he probably should be rest of the season. Part of the issue has been he is not attacking the zone early in counts. I tend to believe he will be fine if he is healthy, which he seems to be right now.

The Batman: Is Lane Thomas a sell high or is he too good to trade right now? The guy has been incredible, and while most metrics suggest overperformance, he just keeps cooking.

Justin Mason: He is definitely getting lucky with the BABIP, but when you put the ball in play as much as he does, you can give yourself the opportunity to get lucky. Will there be regression? Sure, but I don’t think he falls apart because the contact skills are so good.

Kingpin: My league’s 1st half ends after this scoring week. 8-team, NL-only standard 5×5. I’m trying to climb into 3rd to get a lil money. Need all the stats I can get. Would you sit Stroman with his potential blister issue? Or Sheehan in Colorado? My only other option is a two-start Rich Hill or Leiter as a 3rd reliever. Thanks!

Justin Mason: I would roll with Stroman

SamskiNYC: Justin, how does Seiya Suzuki hit the ball hard and just not get any results?

Justin Mason: Because it is easier to hit the ball with authority at a lower launch angle. That being said, I would buy low here. I still believe in the talent.

Hank Scorpio: Hey Justin, I’m toiling over some rotation picks for this week in a 12tm 6×6 roto. Am I crazy for rolling out K. Bradish (v. MIN), F. Peralta (@ Pit), and B. Woo (v. WAS)… while sitting H. Brown (@ TEX), G. Kirby (v. TB), and B. Ober (@ BAL)? I have McClanahan too, but I may not roll the dice on the back with very few updates since his start

Justin Mason: I don’t think you are crazy, but I don’t think I would sit McClanahan or Kirby

Ric Flair: How many innings does Wooooooooooo end up with this year?

Justin Mason: 110-120?

SamskiNYC: Should I give up on Rowdy Tellez? I don’t want to give up on Rowdy Tellez, but nothing looks really good

Justin Mason: I am writing him up today as a buy low…

Dan: Drop Heaney for Woo in 16 team points league?

Justin Mason: Sure

Nick: What do you expect from Nolan Gorman & MJ Melendez ROS? Just a slump for Gorman? Trying to stay patient with Melendez, but are the HR ever going to come?

Justin Mason: I think this is who Gorman is. He will run hot and then go ice cold. It is up to you if you can handle the ups and downs. I still believe in Melendez but in a 1-catcher league, I understand moving on.

Carlos: Rank these OF ROS for points league (no K penalty): J.Lowe, L.Taveras, Kelenic, Matos. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Kelenic, Lowe, Taveras, MAtos

Guest: I noticed, in the top Arizona diamondbacks prospects, that you guys have Landon Sims sitting 90-92 as opposed to other sources that report mid 90s. Can you explain the discrepancy?

Justin Mason: You would have to ask Eric.

MF Luder: Hold or sell high on Jon Gray?

Justin Mason: I would try and sell high if I can. Love the talent, but the health track record scares me.

RGM: Do you think Muncy will be able to continue his production assuming he’s healthy?  What level of pitcher would you trade for him?

Justin Mason: I definitely do think he can. If I could get him for a SP outside the top 40, I would do that and feel really good about it.

Owen: I am an experienced player, but mostly in H2H formats and did my first draft and hold this offseason.  I’ve done well, holding first for multiple weeks now, with the lead fluctuating between the 20-14 point range, which I feel pretty safe with.  But should I feel safe?  What is a “good” lead at this point in the NFBC format?

Justin Mason: No lead is safe at this point. Keep grinding. Look for ways to continue to separate yourself and pick up points. Remember there is also an overall in those draft and holds and that is where the real money is won. Good luck!

Guest: scale of 1-10, how self destructive to start Sonny in QS tonight if my WHIP is precarious?

Justin Mason: 5

MF Luder: In a vacuum ROS Buxton or Nolan Jones?

Justin Mason: Buxton

Sonny: Worried about Kiriloff’s very low Max EV numbers? Doesn’t seem like a profile that sustains CI/OF productivity

Justin Mason: I have never been a fan so I would be pretty worried if I had him on a roster.

Penguin: Hey Justin,

Justin Mason: Hi!!!!

Salty: Thought I heard you have action on the DBacks to win the division.  If so, are you going to make any hedge plays on the Giants and/or Dodgers, or just let it ride?

Justin Mason: I am letting it ride. It isn’t a big enough bet to worry about hedging.

B’ryce Szymbobski: Bro, what in the flying squirrel poo is up with Corbin Burnes?

Justin Mason: Velocity has been down at times just a little, but for the most part, I think the stuff has been fine. Unlucky in the strand rate and minor regression. I think he will be pretty darn good rest of the way, but just maybe not the best pitcher in baseball

Peedy Pie: I need to make a decision to start or bench Stroman in a deep weekly league. Thoughts? The replacement would be a set-up man that I might get a hold or two out of if I’m lucky.

Justin Mason: I am rolling with him this week

MF Luder: Pick 2 of these currently injured pitchers ROS; Rodon, Woodruff, Skubal

Justin Mason: Rodon and Woodruff. Take the upside.

Wazoo: I remember last season Nolan Gorman getting hot and the wheels falling off. This season, more of the same. Worrisome or normal for a player with as high a strikeout rate as him?

Justin Mason: This is who he is.

Paul Sporgrrrr: Marry, Dicorce, Cheat with: Bobby Miller, Gavin Williamals, Bryan Woo.

Justin Mason: Marry Miller, Cheat with Williams, Divorce Woo

Sonny: I have a few interesting new league rules/formats and trying to find a community of active FBB players. You have a board or site you recommend to fill out new leagues?

Justin Mason: If you friend me on facebook, I can put you in some groups on there.

B’ryce Szymbobski: When is it time to send Eury Perez back to waivers due to inning constraints? Shallow H2H points league, if that matters.

Justin Mason: It sounds like they are going to send him to the minors after this next start and then he will return after the all star break. I am holding him through that in my leagues, but understand dropping him in shallow formats.

Matt W.: How is the auction Team doing?

Justin Mason: 6th overall! I am super pumped but I also know things can fall apart easily. I was in first place in my main event last year at the All Star Break and finished last. I am enjoying the ride right now, but staying vigilant to keep it going.

guest: Starting Taj at AZ or Blackburn with NY tomorrow?

Justin Mason: Taj

Matt L: Are you more likely to roll with Sandy’s rough 2-step on a bad team than a good one? Lol

Justin Mason: Tough, but I would roll with Sandy.

Guest: I’m hearing good things about Woo. Worth dropping Conforto, Happ, or Bryce Miller in an 8 teamer?

Justin Mason: I could drop conforto

B’ryce Szymbobski: Any idea when the SP rankings update will come?

Justin Mason: I am not doing in-season updates, but Paul should be soon. If I have time over the All-Star Break, I could try and knock some out.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Have you ever seen a minor league pitching staff be as prolific as the AA Tulsa Drillers? Prolific may even be the wrong word.  Generational?

Justin Mason: I am not going to lie. I have no idea lol

Kobe Beef: Gavin Williams two starts against KC and CHC or Kirby against TB

Justin Mason: Kirby, but I would want and start Williams too

Penguin: Hey Justin, how would you approach managing a rebuilding dynasty team that has outperformed the projected timeline to compete? Is the move to go all in or just ride it out? Went from a 2 win team last year to 7-6 and a pretty well rounded team with plenty of good prospects on the way.

Justin Mason: Take an honest evaluation of what you think you could really do. I am always for a win now approach, but if you had a plan to rebuild coming in and can build a juggernaut long term, that is what you probably should do.

Matt W.: Ottoneu points league does Nola have any trade value? He gets tons of innings but gets hammered with all the HR given up. (-12.3 per HR given up)

Justin Mason: I think he does. He is a buy low for me, Not a sell low.

ADHD+: Do you play OOTP (Out of the Park Baseball)?

Justin Mason: I really want to, but I am afraid of the time suck it could be when I already work two jobs and have a wife and kids. Maybe in the offseason.

Travis: Acuna or Soto rest of the decade?

Justin Mason: Acuna for fantasy. Soto for real life.

Tough Call: Which part time Ray do you prefer ROS? Raley or Siri?

Justin Mason: Siri

Why not Zoidberg: Is this a good sell high opportunity on C. Javier? Looks like his estimators are .5 to 1.5 higher than his actual ERA and he’s not getting Ks like last year.

Justin Mason: I think so. I wonder if he is hurt.

Mark: Is AJSS a hold in 15 team mixed leagues even though he’s down for now?

Justin Mason: I think so because there is so little on the wire in those leagues.

West-burger: Holding Kim and Giminez on bench. Drop either to activate my NA’ed Westburg?

Justin Mason: I could drop kim

Mike F: Alek Thomas just hit the wire in my league. His statcast data has intrigued me, and he’s hit well since he’s been back from AAA. Is he a breakout candidate for the rest of the season?

Justin Mason: I think he could be. It all comes down to playing time. He doesn’t have a carrying too in fantasy so he needs volume to be valuable. His defense could keep him in the lineup, but we have already seen him get sent down so there is risk there.

Pau: I know this is going to be a vague question, so sorry in advance, any buy-low CI/1B in a 10 team OBP league?

Justin Mason: Tellez? Hard to know without knowing more info.

Pictures Pitchers: Think Ranger Suarez is worth holding based on his last 5 starts? Where does he rank alongside Woo and G. Williams in a shallow points league?

Justin Mason: I have him above those guys ROS but they have better short term upside which is what you should be shooting for in a shallow points league.

Why not Zoidberg: I’ve been leading in a 12-team roto for most of the year, up by 5 points though, so it’s close. Can’t make use of Harper at DH because I have Ohtani too. But Harper’s a $6 keeper and I can’t find what I think is good value for him in a trade. Would you take whatever you can get or hold?

Justin Mason: I don’t mind losing a deal if it helps me win the league, but I wouldn’t just give him away.

Pants: Kelenic seems to be back to who he was the previous years, getting a little hard to justify holding in a 12 team 5×5 Roto dynasty. Continuing to hold? Can’t seem to deal him for much.

Justin Mason: I am holding for now, but I am very concerned. The strikeouts have come back and the zone contact has slipped.

Kevin: League is 9-team roto 5×5 (OPS and QS). I needed SP and SS, rest of my hitting is great. Just traded Arozarena, Goldschmidt, and Ezequiel Duran for Betts and Logan Webb. How’d I do?

Justin Mason: I think you may have overpaid a little but sometimes you have to do that to get what you need.

Fenway fret: You starting Braxton Garrett at Boston in H2H? He’s been great but Razzball advises against.

Justin Mason: I am rolling with it with how well he has pitched.

Pat: I think Woo is probably coming up on his innings cap, would JorMont be a good return in a keep-four format (6X6 OPS and K/BB) alongside J.D. Davis?

Justin Mason: YEs

Sky-Lines the Limit: Still starting some at DH. Hold in 1-C leagues or drop for E Diaz, P Bailey, d’Arnaud, or Jansen?

Justin Mason: I don’t see who you are asking about

Micah: Please pick one to cut in a QS league: Severino, G Williams, Braxton G, Whitlock, Woo, Maeda

Justin Mason: Maeda

MF Luder: Pablo Lopez 67.9% LOB. Is he actually unlucky? Or maybe he has bad pitch sequencing? Or not good in “clutch” moments? Idk what to make of him

Justin Mason: I think he is getting unlucky. I traded for him a couple weeks ago and I don’t regret it.

Mugghead: Facing a roster crunch in my H2H Pts League with Benson and Chisholm (hopefully) coming off IL soon. How would you priorotize the following: B. De La Cruz, Fraley, L. Thomas, and Benson? Thank you.

Justin Mason: De La Cruz, Thomas, Fraley, Benson

Guest: Is Verlander cooked? I bought him pretty low in an auction keeper league in which I’m rebuilding. I’m wondering if my roster spot would be better used for a younger player.

Justin Mason: Nah, I think he will be fine.

JD: I desperately need pitching in a 6×6 roto league and have Elly De La Cruz. Is Joe Ryan a sufficient return for EDLC?

Justin Mason: Yes

Justin Mason: As long as it is not a keeper.

Jorge: Thoughts in the ARZ closing situation please? I have Castro and I’m not sure whether to hang on or move on. Way up as SV leader in a deep 15 team 5×5 roto and need SB, but are empty SB bats like Straw or maybe BoSox Hamilton worth dropping Castro for? (had some injuries that limited SB but I have some guys running now…I can make up a lot of roto point though)

Justin Mason: I think it is McGough’s job until the potentially trade for a guy at the deadline.  I don’t mind dropping Castro for Hamilton

Hank Scorpio: F. Peralta (@ PIT) or B. Woo (v. WAS) this week?

Justin Mason: Peralta

Balzac: Drop Kirk for Y Diaz in an OBP keeper league?

Justin Mason: Sure

Hendriks: Do you think Liam is the CWS closer in the last month of the year? I’m in first place and have an open IL slot, thinking about trading for him

Justin Mason: At this point, it is a crapshoot. If he is healthy he is, but I always worry with these type of injuries.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Tulsa Drillers team ERA: 3.50. Southern League (AA) average team ERA: 4.49. Pitchers in that rotation: Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt, Nick Nastrini, River Ryan, Nick Frasso, Landon Knack. Just insanity.

Justin Mason: That is really impressive. The Dodgers just don’t miss which is annoying as a Giants fan.

Catcher Issues: Hey Justin, any thoughts/rankings on these guys in shallow points leagues? Stephenson, Bailey, Sanchez, Diaz, Jansen

Justin Mason: Jansen is my favorite. I think I go Diaz, Bailey, Stephenson, Sanchez after that.

Jarren Duran: What do you do with me in a 12 team mixed (daily lineup)? My speed is helpful. But my playing time is inconsistent and I’m super streaky.

Justin Mason: I hate rostering players like that but if he is your best source of speed, I get it.

Sky-Lines the Limit: I was so proud of my username I forgot to Stephenson’s name into the question.

Stephenson is still starting some at DH. Hold in 1-C leagues or drop for E Diaz, P Bailey, d’Arnaud, or Jansen?

Justin Mason: Drop for Jansen

B’ryce Szymbobski: Joey Votto… shallow league relevant 1B in points?

Justin Mason: I think he could be for sure. Just getting a piece of that lineup with his plate skills could be valuable. He was my most targeted pick up this weekend.

MF Luder: Morel or Merrifield ROS?

Justin Mason: Morel

Worried: Do you think Miguel Vargas turns it around soon or gets benched, sent down?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that they have the bodies to send him down. I think he should be better, but maybe not the type of player his prospect pedigree predicted.

Is the Future Oblique: Keep forever league, own Yordan. Love when healthy, but also worried he will continue to be not healthy. Do you see his production keeping up for next 3-5 years (at least when playing), or forsee a drop off in next year or two as injuries catch up?

Justin Mason: I worry about his ability to stay on the field. He probably is a lot like he is now over the next 3-5 years. A player that is elite when healthy, but misses a fair amount of time.

Maris9: Does Chaz McCormick have any value going forward? I have him at one unit.

Justin Mason: Minimal.

CIN City: Does Noelvi Marte have a shot of getting called up and contributing this year for CIN? I’ve missed out on other call ups and and thinking about trying to get ahead of this one.

Justin Mason: He could but where would he play? I don’t know that they want him to come up and be a part timers.

MF Luder: ROS Seth Lugo or Garrett Whitlock?

Justin Mason: Whitlock

Maris9: Better future – Miguel Vargas or James Outman?

Justin Mason: Close, but I think I take the floor of Vargas over the ceiling of outman.

Sam: 12 team ottoneu points league. I’m in third with the two teams ahead potentially separating from the pack. Team in first offered me $27 Framber for $32 Matt Olson and $5. My pitching is second in the league to this team by P/IP and my offense is middle of the pack. Thoughts on the trade proposal?

Justin Mason: I feel like you should get a small piece with that. Framber has been so good.

Kobe Beef: Do the Orioles move Holliday to 2nd since Gunnar is entrenched at 3rd?

Justin Mason: Honestly, I think it all could depend on if the Orioles want to spend on a big free agent next offseason. If they pull a big SS or a big 3B, then Holliday and Henderson can move to accommodate. Right now, I think Henderson could stay at 3rd and Holliday could be SS or 2B

Dave: Lost Vinnie P. so I’m casting about for 1B types on the wire… Votto, Rowdy, or Justin Turner?

Justin Mason: I think Turner is my favorite right now.

What a Drury Day: 1B has been rough.  Is Drury worth it with his dual 1B-2B eligibility? It’s a 10teamer points.

Justin Mason: Probably not

Jimmer: Is Eugenio Suarez due for some positive regression or ok to move on?

Justin Mason: I think more power will come but this is kind of who he is.

Guest: Are you buying Volpe for dynasty? I still think there is a .260/20/30 player hiding in there but I may be fooling myself

Justin Mason: I definitely would. I think he will be a star but has been rushed to the Majors a bit too fast. He should be great long term.

Didi: Do you believe in Moniak now that they are trying Renfroe at 1B freeing AB’s for Moniak?

Justin Mason: I don’t know what they are doing right now in Anaheim. I am not a Moniak guy.

Pitcher problems: Are Bieber, Morton, or Bobby Miller getting close to dropable in a twelve team standard H2H league? Waiver wire options would be Gore, Woo, Logan Allen, gavin williams, or Freddy P who just got dropped

Justin Mason: I don’t think they are droppable, but maybe you could package Bieber and/or Morton for something with their name values

SouthSide: Is Andrew Vaughn finally tapping into his power or is bound to keep being middling in that neither good nor bad kinda way?

Justin Mason: I worry about his health long term. I know there is legit power in there, but the body shape and a back injury in the preseason scares me.

Jinx: Is Berti going to have a hot stretch for SB’s this season?

Justin Mason: Probably lol

Manny Headaches: Manny Machado has been a frustrating own this year. Hold and hope for better or try to flip him for some other higher-achieving but lower-ranked 3B?

Justin Mason: Hold

KCbbq: Is Lance Lynn toast? His recent 16K games suggest he has something left in the tank.

Justin Mason: DEfinitely not toast, but also hard to trust.

Richie: Luis Robert is a top-?? bat? How studly of a keeper is he at $10 next year (budget $250)?

Justin Mason: 25-30?

Von Hayes:

Justin Mason: OMG!!!

Justin Mason: Thank you for chatting with me today! Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!