Starting Pitcher Chart – June 19th

June 19, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Monday, June 19th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Corbin Burnes	MIL		ARI	x	x	x	83.2	3.44	1.10	16%	6th	Trending toward a return of peak Burnes w/a 2.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 23% K-BB in his L4 (27 IP)
2	James Paxton	BOS	at	MIN	x	x	x	32	3.09	1.16	26%	18th	It’s still just 32 IP, but Big Maple is looking to be pretty “back” and he’s an easy all-formats start w/a 2-step (at CWS this wknd)
3	Hunter Brown	HOU		NYM	x	x	x	75.1	3.35	1.19	19%	17th	The rookie righty has been returning excellent value on his draft status even as a relatively hyped up guy
4	Max Scherzer	NYM	at	HOU	x	x	x	56.2	4.45	1.24	19%	14th	Trips to HOU & PHI isn’t a great setup for the guy w/11 ER in his last 2 starts, but I can’t really envision sitting him anywhere
5	Pablo López	MIN		BOS	x	x	x	84.1	4.27	1.11	23%	20th	3 tough outings in his L6 have raised his ERA to 4.27, but I’m still not sitting him anywhere especially with the 2-step (at DET this wknd)
6	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	at	MIL	x	x	x	83	3.04	1.11	17%	28th	Has quietly been fantastic this yr including a K boost up to 27%!
7	Michael Wacha	SDP	at	SFG	x	x	x	74.2	2.89	1.06	16%	5th	SFG has quietly morphed into a damn fine team, but Wacha is at a must-start level for me (19th ranked SP thus far)
8	José Berríos	TOR	at	MIA	x	x	x	85	3.28	1.16	15%	13th	Is he getting enough attention for turning back into an all-formats guy this yr? He was a mid-200s pick in deep formats & probably went undrafted in some shallow lgs
9	Drew Smyly	CHC	at	PIT	x	x	x	77.2	3.59	1.20	14%	8th	Got hit early v. PIT last time out but lasted 6 & they clawed back to get him a W; healthy Smyly is no worse than a team streamer in any format for me
10	Andrew Heaney	TEX	at	CHW	x	x	x	66.2	4.05	1.32	14%	20th	There’s always some risk w/him but I’m definitely starting him in this matchup and in weekly lgs for the 2-step (at NYY this wknd)
11	Josiah Gray	WSN		STL	x	x	x	79	3.19	1.35	9%	24th	Did allow 4 ER but love seeing him get through 7 with fewer than 100 pitches; still keeping tabs on the HRs though he remains a relative fixture in the lineup
12	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG		SDP		x	x	79.1	4.31	1.18	13%	7th	He’s a team streamer in 12s & deeper despite the elevated WHIP w/his good WHIP and strong team support; more of a standard streamer in 10s or lower
13	Reese Olson	DET		KCR		x	x	13.1	6.08	1.05	13%	26th	Was started as a 2-step & then got pushed back to a 2-step THIS wk which is better w/KC & MIN (was going to be MIN this wknd after the ATL dud earlier this wk)
14	Osvaldo Bido	PIT		CHC			x	4	2.25	1.75	16%	21st	High risk 2-step gamble w/another matchup v. CHC and then a trip to MIA this wknd
15	Jack Flaherty	STL	at	WSN			x	73.2	4.64	1.59	10%	12th	BB are insane (13%) & WSN doesn’t K so this could go south
16	Brandon Williamson	CIN		COL			x	31.2	5.40	1.42	7%	29th	Has a 6.23 ERA and 6.42 FIP since that opening gem in COL
17	Bryan Hoeing	MIA		TOR				26	3.12	1.38	11%	3rd	MIA has a strong pitching development reputation but I’m going to wait & see w/Hoeing especially in this matchup
18	Jesse Scholtens	CHW		TEX				18.2	2.89	1.07	3%	2nd	Had a solid 3.29 ERA/1.06 WHIP in 13.7 IP when he was stretched out in May, but an insane -2% K-BB rate during that time, too
19	Jordan Lyles	KCR	at	DET				79.2	6.89	1.29	9%	25th	In fairness, his WHIP is impressive given that ERA
20	Austin Gomber	COL	at	CIN				66.2	7.29	1.70	5%	9th	Never… obviously!

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Anon

1 year ago

I’ll keep posting this: Houston is 15th in R/G and 19th in wOBA and that was with Yordan who is out until at least mid-July. Without him they are 3 All-Star (but not MVP) hitters and 6 league average hitters (at best), and that’s true whether you look at actual production to this point or forward projections. In particular, they have been much worse against righties (.308 wOBA) than lefties (.325 wOBA).

They just aren’t that good.