Starting Pitcher Chart – June 14th

June 14, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Wednesday, June 14th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	at	DET	x	x	x	73.2	3.79	1.09	31%	28th	HRs finally caught up to him v. NYM (6 of 8 ER) after dodging major issues with 5 in his previous 4 starts
2	Luis Castillo	SEA		MIA	x	x	x	76.2	2.70	0.99	24%	8th	My AL Cy Young pick is rolling lately with just 4 ER in his L4 after 5 ER at BOS
3	Clayton Kershaw	LAD		CHW	x	x	x	76.1	2.95	1.09	24%	16th	Even at 35 y/o, he is one of the game’s best and if he stays healthy, he can be a Top 5 guy for the whole season
4	Framber Valdez	HOU		WSN	x	x	x	84	2.36	1.06	21%	7th	Those pesky Nats can sneak up on lefties, but it’s not like we’re sitting a Top 5 SP
5	Tyler Glasnow	TBR	at	OAK	x	x	x	15.2	2.87	1.09	20%	30th	Are we sure we want to run any SP against these blistering A’s???
6	Gerrit Cole	NYY	at	NYM	x	x	x	85.2	2.84	1.14	18%	14th	WHIP is a little high for that ERA if we want to nitpick… he’s still an easy top 3 and the #1 for most
7	Bailey Ober	MIN		MIL	x	x	x	51.2	2.61	0.97	17%	25th	Can we believe the 5% HR/FB he’s run for 108 IP dating back to last yr despite the massive FB lean (52%)? The 17% K-BB keeps me fully interested
8	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		PHI	x	x	x	77	2.92	1.10	17%	19th	Has quietly been excellent this yr and ranks as a Top 10 pitcher in 5×5 formats
9	Reid Detmers	LAA	at	TEX	x	x	x	56.1	4.79	1.51	18%	2nd	Lagging LOB and elevated BABIP have his numbers in shambles right now, but I remain fully confident in the 23 y/o lefty & I’m picking him up everywhere
10	Michael Wacha	SDP		CLE	x	x	x	68	3.18	1.09	16%	20th	On a complete heater with a 1.51 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 18% K-BB over his last 48 IP, going at least 6 IP in 6 of the 8 starts
11	José Berríos	TOR	at	BAL	x	x	x	77.1	3.61	1.23	15%	17th	Question if you have Berríos on your tm: is your confidence back w/him? Do you set it & forget it?
12	Eury Pérez	MIA	at	SEA	x	x	x	29	2.17	1.21	14%	24th	About the only flaw in his profile is the 11% BB which isn’t terribly surprising for a flamethrowing rookie… all told, he’s delivering on the hype
13	Justin Verlander	NYM		NYY	x	x	x	39	4.85	1.33	12%	12th	Rocking an every other good start pattern w/1, 6, 1, 6, 1, 4 ER across his L6 (5.03 ERA) but I just can’t see sitting him anywhere
14	Garrett Whitlock	BOS		COL	x	x	x	32	4.78	1.28	15%	7th	Season ERA is a bit elevated in 6 starts, but the skills are solid (1.7 HR rate is inflated by 3 HR in his opener v. TB) & this is a great matchup
15	Drew Smyly	CHC		PIT		x	x	71.2	3.27	1.16	14%	17th	Has survived a schedule gauntlet (at HOU, NYM, CIN, at SDP, at LAA) w/a 4.28 ERA in those 27 IP
16	Ranger Suárez	PHI	at	ARI		x	x	30.2	4.70	1.43	14%	10th	Was a bit wobbly in his first 3 off the IL before settling in 3 starts since: 1.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 13% K-BB… still not full on start v. ARI, though
17	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG	at	STL		x	x	76.1	3.89	1.13	12%	3rd	Only 2 Ks in each of his last 3 starts and actually has more BB in that time (6 K, 7 BB) but still 2 QS and 1 dud… tough matchup that I’m OK skipping you’re nervous
18	Jordan Montgomery	STL		SFG		x	x	72	3.88	1.33	15%	13th	Hit rate surge has his WHIP at a 4-yr high but maybe he can start to shave his .319 BABIP back closer to his career .293 mark
19	Aaron Civale	CLE	at	SDP		x	x	23.1	2.31	1.07	10%	22nd	Solid in 2 starts since returning from the IL and as long as you’re OK w/the modest K totals, he’s a worthy streamer in several spots
20	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN	at	KCR		x	x	36.1	4.21	1.13	19%	27th	5 HR in his last 2 starts handled the regression, pushing his ERA from 1.99 to 4.21 in short order
21	Kyle Bradish	BAL		TOR			x	53	4.25	1.36	15%	2nd	I’m a big Bradish fan, but I’m completely fine sitting out this matchup… worth noting he has a 3.52 ERA/1.18 WHIP in his L7 since May 1st
22	Reese Olson	DET		ATL			x	10	2.70	0.70	18%	4th	It’s risky against ATL, but I’m down to stream him especially since it’s a 2-step (at MIN this wknd slated for Sunday even after the rainout)
23	Andrew Heaney	TEX		LAA			x	63	4.14	1.25	14%	8th	Just 3 HR in his L6 has yielded a 2.94 ERA, but I stay pretty cautious against LAA with streamer types
24	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	HOU			x	72	3.00	1.40	8%	6th	The 8% K-BB is making him a tough start even w/the newfound HR suppression… no worse than a team streamer so hold him if you pass on this start
25	Mike Clevinger	CHW	at	LAD			x	58	4.19	1.38	9%	9th	Has allowed more than 3 ER just once in his L6 starts w/a 3.74 ERA & 1.23 WHIP in that time, not sure that’s enough to get me on this matchup in many spots, though
26	Colin Rea	MIL	at	MIN			x	52.1	4.47	1.22	13%	13th	He’s held his own and not allowed more than 4 ER in any start making himself a decent deep lg streamer
27	Daniel Lynch	KCR		CIN				16.1	4.41	1.47	16%	9th	Interesting lefty hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in his 3 starts (2 UER in one of ’em helped) but I’m being more careful w/CIN these days (5 R/gm in their L9)
28	Michael Lorenzen	DET		ATL				60	3.75	1.02	13%	4th	A rough 7th (4 H & ER) spoiled his last outing (6 IP/2 ER before that) but keeps his streak of 0-1 ER or 5+ ER outings (6 of the former, 4 of the latter)… ATL too risky for me
29	Luis Medina	OAK		TBR				34.2	7.53	1.56	10%	15th	Shouts to my guy Hogan Harris for standing up v. TBR… I’m not seeing as much upside w/Medina and even liking Harris, I still didn’t reco him v. TBR
30	Collin McHugh	ATL	at	DET				25.2	2.81	1.68	4%	28th	Looks like ATL is going with a bullpen gm in 1 of the doubleheader games
31	Osvaldo Bido	PIT	at	CHC				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	29th	27 y/o righty getting a spot start after a 24% K and 11% BB in 55 IP at AAA
32	Austin Gomber	COL	at	BOS				60.2	7.57	1.75	4%	4th	Don’t get Gombered

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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GreggMember since 2020

1 year ago

Reese Olson is not going to pitch on three days rest this weekend despite what your comment says.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to Gregg

lol def not… I legit thought today was Tuesday. I’m totally off track for the week!