Starting Pitcher Chart – July 5th

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Wednesday, July 5th Starter Notes
1 Pablo López MIN KCR x x x 102 4.24 1.15 23% 28th 4 duds have pushed his ERA well above what his skills should normally merit evidenced by his 3.43 SIERA
2 Justin Steele CHC at MIL x x x 85.1 2.43 1.03 17% 12th Hasn’t missed a beat since returning from the IL: 1.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 21% K-BB
3 José Berríos TOR at CHW x x x 101 3.74 1.20 16% 14th A rough 6th inn. spoiled his last outing v. BOS
4 Eduardo Rodriguez DET OAK x x x 67.2 2.13 0.98 19% 30th First start off the IL, but a great matchup plus his dominance pre-injury have me putting him back in the lineup
5 Brayan Bello BOS TEX x x x 73 3.08 1.19 15% 5th Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER since that Marathon Day opener; tough matchup, but I can’t imagine sitting him
6 Bobby Miller LAD PIT x x x 38.1 4.23 1.25 13% 29th Rebounded from a pair of duds w/a 3-R HR v. SFG and Grand Slam v. HOU doing more than half the damage (7 of 13 ER)
7 Seth Lugo SDP LAA x x 57.2 3.59 1.27 17% 4th Really sharp since IL return: 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 22% K-BB… Trout injury makes the matchup a little better
8 Jon Gray TEX at BOS x x 87 3.21 1.08 13% 16th Bad last inning v. HOU but seems to be back after the ugly start immediately off the IL v. TOR on 6/18
9 Alex Cobb SFG SEA x x 83.2 3.12 1.36 16% 17th Just 1 dud on the yr though the 10 H/9 rate puts a lot of pressure on his 79% LOB rate to maintain his great ERA
10 Lance Lynn CHW TOR x x 96 6.47 1.50 19% 19th His obscene 2.1 HR rate makes him a risky start every single time out despite his 19% K-BB (22nd in MLB)
11 J.P. France HOU COL x x 60.1 3.13 1.21 10% 21st 5 QS in June despite a paltry 5% K-BB, still using him v. COL on the road, but not sure he’ll be a reliable 2H option
12 Taijuan Walker PHI at TBR x 89.1 3.93 1.23 12% 10th One of my faves is absolutely blazing lately since his 2/3rds of an inning dud at SF: 1.69 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13% K-BB — still a tough matchup, though!
13 Dean Kremer BAL at NYY x 91 5.04 1.42 15% 30th The Judge-less Yankees are really rough, but he’s also allowed 9 HR in his L5 starts so I’m being careful
14 Kodai Senga NYM at ARI x 81.2 3.53 1.35 16% 3rd Has only allowed more than 4 ER just once despite this persistent control issues, tough matchup means I can see a sit in any format
15 Tommy Henry ARI NYM x 68.1 4.08 1.35 8% 16th An out shy of 3 straight QS though I still only see him as a streamer at best in 15s and maaaaybe some 12s
16 Michael Soroka ATL at CLE x 15.2 6.89 1.47 8% 7th CLE’s offense has lowkey come around in a big way (4.8 R/G since 6/1) so we’re not blindly picking on them as much these day
17 Bryan Hoeing MIA STL x 38.2 3.72 1.29 9% 8th Getting smashed by ATL isn’t a major issue, but STL is no cakewalk despite their brutal overall record… be careful
18 Randy Vásquez NYY BAL x 10.1 1.74 0.97 11% 13th Solid in his last MLB start and then 2 of 3 MiLB outings when sent back down
19 Graham Ashcraft CIN at WSN x 75.2 6.66 1.59 8% 27th Need more than 1 great start to regain confidence in him outside of a lottery ticket streamer
20 Yonny Chirinos TBR PHI x 54.1 3.64 1.20 4% 11th Severe lack of dominance (12% K, 7% SwStr) makes him volatile & PHI is at 5.2 R/G since May 1st
21 Josiah Gray WSN CIN x 95.1 3.30 1.38 11% 2nd Love what the All-Star righty is doing this yr, but we’re not taking unncessary risks v. CIN
22 Patrick Sandoval LAA at SDP x 80.2 4.57 1.49 9% 7th I’ve lost all my confidence in Sandoval as the high WHIP was a lot more palatable when he had a K per IP or better
23 Adrian Houser MIL CHC x 46.1 3.88 1.51 8% 23rd Major BB rate improvements (7% this yr v. 10% in 2021-22) don’t add much to my day-to-day confidence in him… still a big gamble in any given start
24 Osvaldo Bido PIT at LAD 19 4.74 1.47 14% 15th Low Bido isn’t getting sparked by this matchup and lack of track record
25 Steven Matz STL at MIA 64 4.92 1.59 12% 8th I’ll keep tabs on his return to the rotation in case things turn, but no need to speculate before we see something concrete
26 Cal Quantrill CLE ATL 62.2 6.18 1.50 5% 1st Aces only v. ATL
27 Darren McCaughan SEA at SFG 4 6.75 2.25 18% 22nd This might just be an open though he is fully stretched out as a starter from AAA (93 pit/GS in 5 June starts)
28 Ken Waldichuk OAK DET 66.1 6.78 1.91 7% 19th This might just be an open as he hasn’t topped 50 pitches since May 12th
29 Alec Marsh KCR at MIN 4 11.25 2.50 5% 20th Had BB issues in the minors (11%) and I’ll need to see some good starts to gain any confidence in him
30 Chase Anderson COL at HOU 45.2 6.50 1.51 9% 12th No thanks
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues


Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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