Starting Pitcher Chart – July 5th

July 5, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Wednesday, July 5th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Pablo López	MIN		KCR	x	x	x	102	4.24	1.15	23%	28th	4 duds have pushed his ERA well above what his skills should normally merit evidenced by his 3.43 SIERA
2	Justin Steele	CHC	at	MIL	x	x	x	85.1	2.43	1.03	17%	12th	Hasn’t missed a beat since returning from the IL: 1.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 21% K-BB
3	José Berríos	TOR	at	CHW	x	x	x	101	3.74	1.20	16%	14th	A rough 6th inn. spoiled his last outing v. BOS
4	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET		OAK	x	x	x	67.2	2.13	0.98	19%	30th	First start off the IL, but a great matchup plus his dominance pre-injury have me putting him back in the lineup
5	Brayan Bello	BOS		TEX	x	x	x	73	3.08	1.19	15%	5th	Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER since that Marathon Day opener; tough matchup, but I can’t imagine sitting him
6	Bobby Miller	LAD		PIT	x	x	x	38.1	4.23	1.25	13%	29th	Rebounded from a pair of duds w/a 3-R HR v. SFG and Grand Slam v. HOU doing more than half the damage (7 of 13 ER)
7	Seth Lugo	SDP		LAA		x	x	57.2	3.59	1.27	17%	4th	Really sharp since IL return: 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 22% K-BB… Trout injury makes the matchup a little better
8	Jon Gray	TEX	at	BOS		x	x	87	3.21	1.08	13%	16th	Bad last inning v. HOU but seems to be back after the ugly start immediately off the IL v. TOR on 6/18
9	Alex Cobb	SFG		SEA		x	x	83.2	3.12	1.36	16%	17th	Just 1 dud on the yr though the 10 H/9 rate puts a lot of pressure on his 79% LOB rate to maintain his great ERA
10	Lance Lynn	CHW		TOR		x	x	96	6.47	1.50	19%	19th	His obscene 2.1 HR rate makes him a risky start every single time out despite his 19% K-BB (22nd in MLB)
11	J.P. France	HOU		COL		x	x	60.1	3.13	1.21	10%	21st	5 QS in June despite a paltry 5% K-BB, still using him v. COL on the road, but not sure he’ll be a reliable 2H option
12	Taijuan Walker	PHI	at	TBR			x	89.1	3.93	1.23	12%	10th	One of my faves is absolutely blazing lately since his 2/3rds of an inning dud at SF: 1.69 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13% K-BB — still a tough matchup, though!
13	Dean Kremer	BAL	at	NYY			x	91	5.04	1.42	15%	30th	The Judge-less Yankees are really rough, but he’s also allowed 9 HR in his L5 starts so I’m being careful
14	Kodai Senga	NYM	at	ARI			x	81.2	3.53	1.35	16%	3rd	Has only allowed more than 4 ER just once despite this persistent control issues, tough matchup means I can see a sit in any format
15	Tommy Henry	ARI		NYM			x	68.1	4.08	1.35	8%	16th	An out shy of 3 straight QS though I still only see him as a streamer at best in 15s and maaaaybe some 12s
16	Michael Soroka	ATL	at	CLE			x	15.2	6.89	1.47	8%	7th	CLE’s offense has lowkey come around in a big way (4.8 R/G since 6/1) so we’re not blindly picking on them as much these day
17	Bryan Hoeing	MIA		STL			x	38.2	3.72	1.29	9%	8th	Getting smashed by ATL isn’t a major issue, but STL is no cakewalk despite their brutal overall record… be careful
18	Randy Vásquez	NYY		BAL			x	10.1	1.74	0.97	11%	13th	Solid in his last MLB start and then 2 of 3 MiLB outings when sent back down
19	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	at	WSN			x	75.2	6.66	1.59	8%	27th	Need more than 1 great start to regain confidence in him outside of a lottery ticket streamer
20	Yonny Chirinos	TBR		PHI			x	54.1	3.64	1.20	4%	11th	Severe lack of dominance (12% K, 7% SwStr) makes him volatile & PHI is at 5.2 R/G since May 1st
21	Josiah Gray	WSN		CIN			x	95.1	3.30	1.38	11%	2nd	Love what the All-Star righty is doing this yr, but we’re not taking unncessary risks v. CIN
22	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	at	SDP			x	80.2	4.57	1.49	9%	7th	I’ve lost all my confidence in Sandoval as the high WHIP was a lot more palatable when he had a K per IP or better
23	Adrian Houser	MIL		CHC			x	46.1	3.88	1.51	8%	23rd	Major BB rate improvements (7% this yr v. 10% in 2021-22) don’t add much to my day-to-day confidence in him… still a big gamble in any given start
24	Osvaldo Bido	PIT	at	LAD				19	4.74	1.47	14%	15th	Low Bido isn’t getting sparked by this matchup and lack of track record
25	Steven Matz	STL	at	MIA				64	4.92	1.59	12%	8th	I’ll keep tabs on his return to the rotation in case things turn, but no need to speculate before we see something concrete
26	Cal Quantrill	CLE		ATL				62.2	6.18	1.50	5%	1st	Aces only v. ATL
27	Darren McCaughan	SEA	at	SFG				4	6.75	2.25	18%	22nd	This might just be an open though he is fully stretched out as a starter from AAA (93 pit/GS in 5 June starts)
28	Ken Waldichuk	OAK		DET				66.1	6.78	1.91	7%	19th	This might just be an open as he hasn’t topped 50 pitches since May 12th
29	Alec Marsh	KCR	at	MIN				4	11.25	2.50	5%	20th	Had BB issues in the minors (11%) and I’ll need to see some good starts to gain any confidence in him
30	Chase Anderson	COL	at	HOU				45.2	6.50	1.51	9%	12th	No thanks

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues