Starting Pitcher Chart – July 26th

July 25, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Wednesday, July 26th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	at	BOS	x	x	x	116.2	3.78	1.09	32%	5th	Huge HR surge (up 0.7 to 1.2) has saddled him w/an ERA way worse than he deserves (2.56 SIERA)
2	Zach Eflin	TBR		MIA	x	x	x	112.1	3.36	0.99	22%	20th	Brilliant bounce back from the 3 IP/5 ER at KC
3	Zac Gallen	ARI		STL	x	x	x	130.1	3.18	1.06	21%	4th	He’s never sitting anywhere
4	Framber Valdez	HOU		TEX	x	x	x	122.1	2.94	1.10	21%	6th	Valdez never leaves the rotation for me
5	Joe Ryan	MIN		SEA	x	x	x	118.1	3.88	1.05	25%	15th	Beautiful 8 pt. jump in K-BB yet his ERA is 33 pts higher; 11 HR in his L25 IP is a big reason why
6	Kyle Bradish	BAL	at	PHI	x	x	x	97.1	3.05	1.13	17%	24th	Blazing hot in L7 w/8 ER in 44 IP; 60 Ks in last 60 IP (2.25 ERA)
7	Bryce Miller	SEA	at	MIN	x	x	x	69.1	3.50	0.97	18%	6th	Has allowed just 8 ER in 31 IP (2.32 ERA) since those 15 ER in B2B starts a while ago
8	Carlos Rodón	NYY		NYM	x	x	x	14.2	7.36	1.43	3%	27th	I’m still starting him everywhere, but many of y’all found replacements so there are scenarios where he’s not must start
9	Gavin Williams	CLE		KCR	x	x	x	33.2	3.74	1.31	8%	30th	B2B outings w/4 BB; KC’s 28th ranked BB rate might be the perfect Rx
10	Seth Lugo	SDP		PIT	x	x	x	75	3.72	1.27	18%	22nd	Solid conversion back to the rotation this yr and could be pretty useful down the stretch
11	Marcus Stroman	CHC	at	CHW	x	x	x	122.1	3.09	1.14	12%	23rd	BB rate spiking to 12% in his L4 has led to a 6.20 ERA in 20 IP
12	Freddy Peralta	MIL		CIN		x	x	103	4.72	1.28	17%	12th	Great at CIN before getting hit by ATL… 5.63 ERA in L12 shows the volatility, I don’t mind sitting here
13	José Quintana	NYM	at	NYY		x	x	5	3.60	1.20	15%	7th	Likely not as great as last year’s 2.93 ERA, but I’ll take the 4.02 SIERA as a quality team streamer
14	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	at	TBR		x	x	126.1	4.70	1.28	13%	26th	He’s not a must start anymore, but I’m not cutting him anywhere, either
15	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	at	DET		x	x	93	4.16	1.41	9%	20th	4 good starts by ERA in his L5 but just 21 K and 12 BB in those outings (8 K/2 BB in the 7 ER dud)
16	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN	at	MIL		x	x	60.1	3.88	1.21	17%	18th	Still figuring himself out (sub-5 IP in 3 of L4) but showing progress (3.44 ERA/1.22 WHIP in those 4 starts)
17	Ranger Suárez	PHI		BAL		x	x	73	4.07	1.40	13%	14th	I mentioned his rise in BB last time out and he added another 2 at CLE, though that was a low for his L4 gms
18	Jack Flaherty	STL	at	ARI		x	x	104.2	4.39	1.53	11%	16th	He’ll test your risk tolerance, that’s for sure
19	Brayan Bello	BOS		ATL			x	90	3.60	1.22	14%	3rd	Even w/out the dud at OAK, I’d be leaning sit… can see some dart throws where the risk makes sense
20	Michael Lorenzen	DET		LAA			x	100.2	3.49	1.09	13%	10th	Has had trouble w/.500+ tms (5.87 ERA/1.49 WHIP) as opposed dominance v. sub-.500 (2.02/0.85)
21	Hogan Harris	OAK	at	SFG			x	53	6.11	1.38	10%	30th	Coming off a sharp start v. HOU (6 IP/2 ER) and catches SF in a rough spot so I can see some streams
22	Tony Gonsolin	LAD		TOR			x	77.2	3.94	1.08	10%	14th	His gems are far too infrequent to trust him in many spots these days
23	Alex Wood	SFG		OAK			x	57.2	4.99	1.54	8%	24th	Obviously OAK is OAK and always fun to face, but Wood has reached 5 IP in just 4 of 15 outings and 2 were follows
24	Jake Irvin	WSN		COL			x	68.1	4.87	1.43	8%	27th	He’s on a decent little run: 4.10 ERA/1.24 WHIP/13% K-BB in 37 IP (though also a 1.4 HR… be careful)
25	Lance Lynn	CHW		CHC				115	6.18	1.44	19%	9th	I’ve tried to stick w/him but the barrage of HRs has become untenable
26	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	at	LAD				103.1	3.92	1.27	18%	12th	Can’t take a 1.9 HR rate into Chavez Ravine
27	Andrew Heaney	TEX	at	HOU				96.1	4.58	1.35	14%	9th	Doesn’t look anything like the guy last yr who was great when healthy so he’s a team streamer at best
28	Alec Marsh	KCR	at	CLE				20.1	6.20	1.43	15%	8th	Has allowed at least 1 HR in all 4 starts and 2+ HRs in 3 of ’em
29	Johan Oviedo	PIT	at	SDP				111.1	4.77	1.37	11%	7th	Can’t confidently recommend him anywhere
30	Peter Lambert	COL	at	WSN				39.1	5.49	1.53	13%	17th	No thanks

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues