Big Kid Adds (Week 18)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Batters

Sal Frelick (9): Frelick profile is not for all fantasy teams. He’s a Top-100 prospect according to all scouting services but he has a unique profile. All his value is tied to his bat-to-ball skills and speed but lacks power. Think Steven Kwan.

In AAA, he posted a 106 mph maxEV (would rank 256th of 271 MLB hitters with 25 batted ball events) and 85 mph avgEV. Historically on average, hitters with an 85 mph avgEV have an 86 wRC+ with a 17% chance of being a league average hitter (100 wRC+). With the prospect ranking, I think fantasy managers are hoping for more than an average hitter. The linked article is about the upside of light-hitting prospects like Kwan and Victor Robles. They can be useful, but their upside is very limited until they hit the ball hard.

Using just the Steamer600 rest-of-season projection, here are the hitters with the closest projection.

It’s full of fantasy powerhouses like Adam Frazier, Jean Segura, and Miguel Rojas. There is no reason to pay up for Frelick’s profile unless he fits a team’s needs.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (8): Encarnacion-Strand (CES) has been covered in detail for months as people anticipated his promotion. The only questions surrounded his playing time. In eight games since being promoted, he has started in sevenof them while batting seventh. Additionally, he has three games at first base and the other four as the designated hitter. Since he’s not lost at the plate (15% K%, .681 OPS), he should be a regular going forward.

JJ Bleday (7): While Oakland has just 10 games over the next two weeks, they have a sweet three-game set in Colorado over the weekend. Bleday probably got the nod over other Athletics because he’s been on fire (.238 .347 .444 and 3 HR in July) while playing regularly (15 straight starts). Also, he’s hitting in the top third of the lineup.

Luis Campusano (5): Campusano is starting about half the time while hitting .278/.270/.472 with 2 HR so far this season. The 24-year-old’s projections are a bit worse. He’s probably better than a few catchers in a 15-team, 2-catcher league but not much.

Endy Rodríguez (4): While the 23-year-old is considered to be a top-50 prospect, he has struggled with the bat this year (.771 OPS in AAA, .634 OPS in the majors) after destroying the minors last season (combined .996 OPS, 25 HR). So far, he’s starting about two-thirds of the time.

Yoán Moncada (4): The 28-year-old is expected to return to the team on Tuesday after spending over a month on the IL (back). In the majors, he hit .232/.279/.370 with 3 HR in 147 PA. One major implication will be where and how much Jake Burger plays. There has been some discussion of Burger moving to second base.

Dominic Smith (4): A volume play with the Nationals having seven games and expected to face six righties (Smith is a lefty). On the season, he has a .693 OPS with 5 HR.

Patrick Wisdom (4): This add was a little weird to me because Wisdom only starts against lefties and there are only two on the schedule next week (Friday and Sunday). Wisdom has been stroking the long ball with three home runs in the last seven games.

Starters

Chase Silseth (8): In his last start against the Yankees, Silseth went five innings with 10 K, 2 BB, and 1 ER. It was his first MLB game in a month and a half. He changed his pitch mix and went heavy sinker (9% SwStr%, 46% GB%) and slider (14% SwStr%, 69% GB%). In AAA, he seemed to have turned the corner with a 3.79 ERA (2.83 FIP), 0.89 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9 over his last four starts.

One key for him is to limit the walks (5.6 BB/9 in 2023). His Ball% jumps around from game to game.

Ideally, I pitcher want to keep the value under 38%.

José Quintana (8): I was fairly aggressive in adding Quintana to my NFBC leagues (looking back, I should have focused on Cueto). With so few waiver wire options, I decided to trade out my Blackburn shares for Quintana. After Quintana’s successful first start (5 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 0 BB), I have no plan on starting him at the Yankees but can see how he performs, especially his fastball velocity down 1 mph. Next week he is scheduled for a two-step against Kansas City and Baltimore.

In his debut, Quintana focused on this sinker (7% SwStr%, 57% GB%) and four-seamer (24% SwStr%, 20% GB%). Historically, his curveball has been his best pitch (career 13% SwStr%) but he threw it only 16% of the time in his start. In these leagues, this was the only chance to add him. A gamble.

Brandon Pfaadt (7): After struggling in his first six major starts (9.82 ERA, 5.52 xFIP, 1.87 WHIP, and 7.4 K/9), he was better in his last one (6 IP, 3 ER, 3 HR, 6 K, 0 BB). In the start, he threw his sinker (4% SwStr%, 50% GB%) and change (18% SwStr%) more.

There is a lot to like about him with a 94-mph fastball and three breaking pitches that have a swinging-strike rate over 15%. The problem is that his seamer is way too hittable (1.105 vsOPS) by getting too much of the zone (62% Zone%).

There is a pitch plan that should work for him and maybe he figured it out in his last start. I’m not going to be adding him to my lineup every week, but he’s a definite roster-and-monitor.

Johnny Cueto (7): Since returning from the IL, he’s thrown nine innings while striking out nine batters and allowing only one run. He’s getting a few more swinging strikes with his fastball velocity is up over 1 mph from last season. The last time he threw this hard was in 2014 when he posted a 8.9 K/9. His pitches are getting interesting results with his fastball at 17% SwStr%, change at 10% SwStr%, and slider at 2% SwStr%. I know it has only been ten innings but the pitch selection should be tracked going forward.

One other item to track is when/if the team promotes Eury Pérez back to the majors. Will the Marlins go with a six-man rotation or will some head to the bullpen?

Brandon Bielak (4): It was a two-start week for the struggling Bielak (3.46 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.40). On Monday, he allowed six runs, three earned, with five strikeouts and four walks over four innings. While he finds a way to keep his ERA down, his now 1.45 WHIP (3.9 BB/9) is unplayable. We’ll see how his start this weekend goes.

Julio Teheran (4): I think Teheran is the epitome of a replacement-level pitcher in these leagues. Not great but a serviceable (3.75 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 6.2 K/9) in the right matchup. He’s probably not startable this week against Atlanta but he has a nice start against Pittsburgh next week.

Relievers

Kevin Ginkel (9): He’s gotten the last two Saves in Arizona with all signs point to him being the closer. He’s a serviceable arm with a 96-mph fastball and groundball tilt (56% GB%) since he’s been leaning into his slider (18% SwStr%, 64% GB%).

Robert Suarez (4): A speculative add hoping that the Padres trade Josh Hader.