Starting Pitcher Chart – July 25th

July 25, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

—

Tuesday, July 25th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Tyler Glasnow	TBR		MIA	x	x	x	54.2	3.62	1.19	27%	23rd	Appears to be settling in: 2.45 ERA/1.03 WHIP/35% K-BB in 29 IP
2	Pablo López	MIN		SEA	x	x	x	121.2	4.22	1.15	23%	11th	Feels weird that he has a 4.22 ERA given how well he’s pitched but 5 duds (5+ ER) will do that
3	Blake Snell	SDP		PIT	x	x	x	108	2.67	1.28	19%	28th	Always so fun to watch when he’s dialed in (0.71 ERA/1.08 WHIP/25% K-BB in 63 IP)
4	Corbin Burnes	MIL		CIN	x	x	x	121.1	3.49	1.06	17%	9th	Peak Burnes has appeared in July: 1.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 27% K-BB in 27 IP
5	George Kirby	SEA	at	MIN	x	x	x	119.2	3.23	1.04	19%	8th	A couple hiccups including a hilarious 6 ER v. DET over his L9 but still has a 3.02 ERA/1.00 WHIP/21% K-BB
6	Andrew Abbott	CIN	at	MIL	x	x	x	55.2	2.10	0.92	18%	7th	Lamented that maybe my 42 rank was too high for him last wk and he went 8 IP of 1-hit ball… maybe I was too low?
7	Alex Cobb	SFG		OAK	x	x	x	100	3.15	1.39	15%	24th	Roughed up in CIN, but I’m definitely starting him v. OAK
8	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	NYY	x	x	x	83	3.47	1.16	13%	25th	K rate is way down but he’s still not coming out of the lineup anywhere w/those ratios
9	Aaron Civale	CLE		KCR	x	x	x	63	2.71	1.08	12%	29th	Not getting rewarded for his work with just 4 total decisions in 10 starts of 5+ IP
10	Griffin Canning	LAA	at	DET	x	x	x	79.2	4.52	1.23	17%	30th	Coming off a 12 K game w/a great matchup
11	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		STL	x	x	x	95	3.22	1.14	16%	3rd	Cards can still hit despite their wretched record, but Kelly’s been nails so I don’t see myself sitting him anywhere
12	Taijuan Walker	PHI		BAL	x	x	x	107.1	4.11	1.26	12%	17th	He’s SP34 thanks to a 14-start run w/a 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, though just a 12% K-BB
13	Charlie Morton	ATL	at	BOS	x	x	x	109.2	3.36	1.37	15%	12th	If your WHIP is an issue, he’s not a must-start, but you need some pretty strong options to sit him
14	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	TBR		x	x	72	4.50	1.38	15%	19th	His 10% BB in the L7 is workable, but he’s always a threat for 4+ BB outing in a start
15	Julio Urías	LAD		TOR		x	x	75.1	5.02	1.17	18%	12th	5 duds and 9 starts of 0-2 ER across his 14 GS; still a great WHIP, too
16	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	at	CHW		x	x	64	3.38	1.06	12%	18th	This feels precarious w/just a 12% K-BB and 7% SwStr, but his command increases his margin for error
17	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET		LAA			x	83.2	2.69	0.97	21%	5th	Hasn’t struggled w/strong teams: 2.94 ERA/0.98 WHIP/14% K-BB in 6 starts v. >.500 tms
18	Nick Pivetta	BOS		ATL			x	76	4.38	1.20	19%	2nd	Hopefully continues to follow: 2.45 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 39% K-BB in 18 IP… ATL is terrifying, I’m torn here
19	Steven Matz	STL	at	ARI			x	81	4.67	1.47	14%	27th	2 gems and a dud (4 IP/4 ER) since return to rotation; catching ARI in a vulnerable spot so I can see some streams
20	Kyle Gibson	BAL	at	PHI			x	121	4.76	1.36	11%	21st	Always a high-risk stream and no real split to follow, just depends on your risk tolerance
21	Domingo Germán	NYY		NYM			x	97.2	4.52	1.08	18%	15th	Has 4.41 ERA/1.24 WHIP/25% K-BB since Perfecto… always high-risk, high-reward
22	Michael Kopech	CHW		CHC			x	92.1	4.29	1.39	11%	7th	Running some Germanian volatility w/a 90 high and 22 low Game Score (7 60+; 8 <45), so have the TUMS handy
23	J.P. France	HOU		TEX			x	77.2	3.13	1.24	10%	6th	It’s a big risk even v. a Seager-less TEX but I can see some throws here
24	Chris Bassitt	TOR	at	LAD				121.2	3.92	1.21	15%	1st	Most of his struggles on the road: 5.81/1.59 WHIP/12% K-BB thanks to 15 HRs (2.4 HR); LA not the place to test that
25	Zack Greinke	KCR	at	CLE				96.2	5.40	1.30	12%	10th	I just don’t think there is enough upside to take on the risk
26	Rich Hill	PIT	at	SDP				109.2	4.84	1.45	11%	17th	I know he has good starts, I just don’t like taking on the downside risk
27	Cody Bradford	TEX	at	HOU				32	4.78	1.13	16%	10th	Filling in for Eovaldi but might be limited to 60ish pitches
28	Trevor Williams	WSN		COL				98.2	4.38	1.44	9%	28th	Feels like a trap
29	Ken Waldichuk	OAK	at	SFG				80	6.75	1.84	8%	29th	Might take a roll if he was pitching better but he’s just not enticing enough
30	Austin Gomber	COL	at	WSN				102	6.18	1.47	9%	2nd	#NeverGomber

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member

It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.

We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.

1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.

2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.

3. Dark mode and Classic mode!

4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.

5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.

6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)

7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.

8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.

9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.

10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!

We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

Click Here To Become a Member