Starting Pitcher Chart – July 22nd, 2024
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We’re back from the All-Star break! I can’t believe the deadline is just over a week away, but don’t let that make you lose sight of the fact that there is still enough time to make major shifts in your standings. I know Justin and I hammer this point on the podcast, too, but it isn’t impossible to see substantial moves from the All-Star break on. Obviously, every situation is unique and I’m not going to pretend that some teams aren’t completely dead, but many aren’t and it sucks to kinda give up on a squad that ends up rallying only for you to realize that a bit more rigor in this part of the schedule when things like the new College Football video game and of course football itself start garnering attention (assuming you’re a football fan, of course).
| RANK | TYPE | PITCHER | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | at CLE/MIN | 116 | 2.41 | 0.88 | 26% |
| 2 | 1 | Garrett Crochet | at TEX/SEA | 107.1 | 3.02 | 0.95 | 30% |
| 3 | 1 | Chris Sale | CIN/at NYM | 110 | 2.70 | 0.95 | 27% |
| 4 | 1 | Cole Ragans | ARI/CHC | 116.2 | 3.16 | 1.14 | 22% |
| 5 | 1 | Bailey Ober | PHI/at DET | 100 | 4.14 | 1.08 | 21% |
| 6 | 1 | Reynaldo López | CIN/at NYM | 95.2 | 1.88 | 1.17 | 16% |
| 7 | 1 | Hunter Greene | at ATL/at TBR | 110.1 | 3.34 | 1.11 | 18% |
| 8 | 2 | Tanner Houck | at COL/NYY | 117 | 2.54 | 1.03 | 18% |
| 9 | 2 | Ranger Suárez | at MIN/CLE | 114 | 2.76 | 1.04 | 19% |
| 10 | 2 | Bryce Miller | LAA/at CHW | 109 | 3.63 | 1.06 | 16% |
| 11 | 2 | Erick Fedde | at TEX/SEA | 111.1 | 2.99 | 1.13 | 15% |
| 12 | 2 | Blake Snell | at LAD/COL | 35.2 | 6.31 | 1.43 | 16% |
| 13 | 2 | Mitch Keller | STL/at ARI | 114.1 | 3.46 | 1.25 | 15% |
| 14 | 2 | Jon Gray | CHW/at TOR | 86.1 | 3.96 | 1.32 | 14% |
| 15 | 3 | José Soriano | at SEA/OAK | 87.1 | 3.71 | 1.20 | 11% |
| 16 | 3 | Tyler Anderson | at SEA/OAK | 118 | 2.97 | 1.17 | 7% |
| 17 | 3 | José Berríos | TBR/TEX | 119 | 4.01 | 1.18 | 11% |
| 18 | 3 | Albert Suárez | at MIA/SDP | 70.1 | 2.82 | 1.24 | 10% |
| 19 | 3 | Michael Lorenzen | CHW/at TOR | 92 | 3.52 | 1.22 | 6% |
| 20 | 4 | Yilber Diaz | at KCR/PIT | 12 | 1.50 | 0.92 | 9% |
| 21 | 4 | Jordan Hicks | at LAD/COL | 95 | 3.79 | 1.36 | 11% |
| 22 | 4 | Carlos Rodón | TBR/at BOS | 107 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 17% |
| 23 | 4 | Tobias Myers | at CHC/MIA | 72 | 3.13 | 1.13 | 15% |
| 24 | 4 | David Peterson | at MIA/ATL | 43.2 | 3.09 | 1.42 | 7% |
| 25 | 4 | Zack Littell | at NYY/CIN | 101.1 | 4.26 | 1.37 | 17% |
| 26 | 4 | Spencer Arrighetti | at OAK/LAD | 80 | 5.63 | 1.60 | 13% |
| 27 | 5 | Randy Vásquez | at WSN/at BAL | 63 | 4.57 | 1.56 | 10% |
| 28 | 5 | Hogan Harris | HOU/at LAA | 47.2 | 3.40 | 1.45 | 6% |
| 29 | 5 | Yonny Chirinos | NYM/at MIL | 25 | 5.76 | 1.72 | 10% |
| 30 | 5 | DJ Herz | SDP/at STL | 31.1 | 5.17 | 1.40 | 23% |
| 31 | 5 | Javier Assad | MIL/at KCR | 85.1 | 3.27 | 1.35 | 12% |
| 32 | 6 | Xzavion Curry | DET/at PHI | 17.1 | 5.19 | 1.27 | 12% |
| 33 | 6 | Austin Gomber | BOS/at SFG | 99.2 | 4.61 | 1.30 | 10% |
| 34 | 6 | Carlos Carrasco | DET/at PHI | 86 | 5.02 | 1.36 | 11% |
| 35 | 6 | Osvaldo Bido | HOU/at LAA | 18.1 | 3.44 | 1.25 | 6% |
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
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| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK L30/Season | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | DET at CLE | x | x | x | 116 | 2.41 | 0.88 | 26% | 10th/8th | Allowed 4 ER in B2B tough roadies at HOU and at STL, but has allowed just 6 total in his L4 |
| 2 | Cole Ragans | KCR v ARI | x | x | x | 116 | 3.16 | 1.14 | 22% | 13th/6th | Went into COL and BOS B2B and left both w/7 IP gems (3 total ER and 14 Ks) |
| 3 | Reynaldo López | ATL v CIN | x | x | x | 95 | 1.88 | 1.17 | 16% | 5th/19th | We were teased w/the evasive ReyLo step through June and now we’re poised for another after he opened July with one? Could it be??? |
| 4 | Bailey Ober | MIN v PHI | x | x | x | 100 | 4.14 | 1.08 | 21% | 6th/6th | Blazing hot of late: 2.16 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 28% K-BB in 33 IP and PHI will be a nice challenge for him to stay hot |
| 5 | Bryce Miller | SEA v LAA | x | x | x | 109 | 3.63 | 1.06 | 16% | 24th/25th | Still can’t avoid the occasional big dud, including his 3 worst all on the road which underscores his persistent road woes that aren’t just ERA-based (2.10 home/5.51 road), but also skill-based: 24% K-BB at home | 7% on the road… won’t stop me from starting him at CHW this wknd |
| 6 | Hunter Greene | CIN at ATL | x | x | x | 110 | 3.34 | 1.11 | 18% | 27th/20th | I know I almost always reference his HR rate, but it is the story w/his step forward; his BABIP is also down 79 pts to .260 so fewer HRs and fewer guys on when he does give them up — at ATL, at TBR will be a challenge but he’s in Auto Start status right now |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | PHI at MIN | x | x | x | 114 | 2.76 | 1.04 | 19% | 6th/3rd | Wobbly of late (8.62 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 8% K-BB) so this week could be a litmus test, and while no one expects him to return to the sub-2.00 ERA of his first 16 starts this isn’t even 2023-level Suárez right now |
| 8 | Mitch Keller | PIT v STL | x | x | x | 114 | 3.46 | 1.25 | 15% | 7th/10th | The shortened outing ahead of the break was just for some extra rest as was the decision to hold him for the 2-step this week which makes sense to me |
| 9 | Erick Fedde | CHW at TEX | x | x | x | 111 | 2.99 | 1.13 | 15% | 22nd/22nd | I know there has been talk of CHW pairing Robert/Crochet, but Fedde with either of those 2 should really bring back some nice players for them |
| 10 | Blake Snell | SFG at LAD | x | x | x | 35 | 6.31 | 1.43 | 16% | 22nd/1st | 12 IP of scoreless ball with just 1 H and 11 Ks since his latest IL return; even w/the early struggles, I found it hard to ever take him out of the lineup |
| 11 | Tanner Houck | BOS at COL | x | x | x | 117 | 2.54 | 1.03 | 18% | 15th/16th | COL is 7th in wOBA vR at home and v. NYY is lingering on the weekend, but I still don’t see myself sitting him anywhere |
| 12 | Tyler Anderson | LAA at SEA | x | x | x | 118 | 2.97 | 1.17 | 7% | 17th/23rd | Will he have a new team in 2 weeks? He has to, right? |
| 13 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU at OAK | x | x | x | 80 | 5.63 | 1.60 | 13% | 16th/24th | Much better of late w/a 4.10 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 15% K-BB in his L5; too many base runners still leave him susceptible to rough outings so w/LAD looming on the wknd, he’s a coinflip 2-start this wk |
| 14 | Michael Lorenzen | TEX v CHW | x | x | x | 92 | 3.52 | 1.22 | 6% | 30th/30th | A couple 5 ER duds in his L3, but he’s still no worse than a team streamer w/how well he’s pitched this yr |
| 15 | David Peterson | NYM at MIA | x | x | x | 43 | 3.09 | 1.42 | 7% | 24th/30th | Where are the Ks? Easy start here but that 1.42 WHIP is scary |
| 16 | Carlos Rodón | NYY v TBR | x | x | 107 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 17% | 2nd/7th | Not a must start at this jucture after a 9.67 ERA, 1.96 WHIP in his L6; he also has a 19% K-BB during that run but 40 H and 9 HR will make it really hard to succeed in any 6-start run | |
| 17 | Yilber Diaz | ARI at KCR | x | x | 12 | 1.50 | 0.92 | 9% | 21st/13th | I’m in on Diaz! He’ll need to improve the 9% K-BB to keep succeeding so hopefully he can tap into the 21% he had at AA-AAA this yr | |
| 18 | Tobias Myers | MIL at CHC | x | x | 72 | 3.13 | 1.13 | 15% | 11th/14th | Absolutely cooking of late w/1.79 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 15% K-BB bookended by 8 IP/0 ER outings during the 7-start run; at CHC/MIA is a nice setup this wk, too! | |
| 19 | Andre Pallante | STL at PIT | x | x | 51 | 4.21 | 1.38 | 10% | 14th/28th | 7 and 6 IP in his L2 outings is encouraging as he was starting to look like a 5-and-dive (4.7 IP/GS in 6 starts before that) | |
| 20 | River Ryan | LAD v SFG | x | x | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 23rd/23rd | Very interesting prospect making his MLB debut which is always a wildcard, but I’m open to streaming him | |
| 21 | Zack Littell | TBR at NYY | x | 101 | 4.26 | 1.37 | 17% | 17th/1st | A good case of how K-BB isn’t everything as his 1.2 HR9 and 10.7 H9 limit his upside; don’t mind the 2-step in plenty of leagues, but it comes w/real risk | ||
| 22 | Yonny Chirinos | MIA v NYM | x | 25 | 5.76 | 1.72 | 10% | 2nd/11th | I have some interest but NYM/at MIL is a rough 2-step; could see myself benching in a deep league, though at ATL looms next wk so maybe not…. | ||
| 23 | Hogan Harris | OAK v HOU | x | 47 | 3.40 | 1.45 | 6% | 14th/11th | His BB issues came to a head w/6 in just 3 IP at PHI; HOU leading the 2-step makes this a scary one | ||
| 24 | Javier Assad | CHC v MIL | 85 | 3.27 | 1.35 | 12% | 20th/7th | ||||
| 25 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE v DET | 86 | 5.02 | 1.36 | 11% | 13th/21st | ||||
| 26 | Austin Gomber | COL v BOS | 99 | 4.61 | 1.30 | 10% | 29th/17th |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.
I love Obers, but the recent 33.1 IP have come against OAK (15.1) and 6 IP vs SEA, DET, and CSW, so not sure I’m 100% confident in a start vs PHI.
That’s fair and maybe in a shallower league I can find a sit, but I’m a big Ober fan so he rarely leaves my lineup in any format
It was the right call. I have a little more faith in him (and you) today 🙂