Starting Pitcher Chart – July 21st

July 21, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Latest SP Rankings

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Friday, July 21st Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAA		PIT	x	x	x	100.1	3.32	1.10	22%	30th	No funny business, baseball gods, just let this be the 22-K game it should be!!
2	Joe Ryan	MIN		CHW	x	x	x	107	3.70	1.01	25%	21st	8 ER in his L2 starts (9.7 IP), but still has 17 Ks; HRs are the problem w/2.9 in his L6 (5.71 ERA)
3	Framber Valdez	HOU	at	OAK	x	x	x	111	2.51	1.05	20%	26th	Framberto could drop a CG here if he gets rolling
4	Zach Eflin	TBR		BAL	x	x	x	102.1	3.25	0.99	22%	13th	A 3 IP/5 ER dud at KCR is exactly why “that’s baseball” is such a strong cliché! I’m not worried about him
5	James Paxton	BOS		NYM	x	x	x	56	2.73	0.98	23%	28th	Not too worried about the dud at CHC, he remains in the lineup for me
6	Braxton Garrett	MIA		COL	x	x	x	92.1	3.70	1.14	23%	18th	10 ER in 15 July IP feels more like standard regression than an unraveling
7	Justin Steele	CHC		STL	x	x	x	91.1	2.56	1.06	17%	4th	A lefty-lefty grand slam by Yoshida sank his last outing and sometimes a guy gets got… no concerns
8	Kyle Bradish	BAL	at	TBR	x	x	x	84	3.32	1.18	16%	15th	Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his L9 and 0-2 in the 6 straight (2.17 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 21% K-BB)
9	Clarke Schmidt	NYY		KCR	x	x	x	88	4.40	1.39	16%	29th	K rate down 5 pts to 21% in his L54 IP, but the success has been there: 2.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
10	Seth Lugo	SDP	at	DET	x	x	x	63.2	3.39	1.24	17%	28th	Touched up in PHI thanks in part to 2 HR, but this a great spot to get right
11	Lance Lynn	CHW	at	MIN		x	x	103	6.03	1.42	20%	4th	One bad inning hurt him at ATL, but I had no issue sitting him there
12	Reese Olson	DET		SDP		x	x	33.1	4.05	0.99	20%	8th	He’s on fire w/a 2.33 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 24% K-BB in 19 IP (3 starts/2 relief apps.)
13	Gavin Williams	CLE		PHI		x	x	24.2	4.01	1.09	12%	17th	Was a sit at TEX in most spots but he survived 4 BB with 5 IP/2 ER
14	Jack Flaherty	STL	at	CHC		x	x	92.2	4.27	1.56	10%	11th	We thought he was pumping his trade value, turns out he’s just leading them to a surge?
15	Bryce Miller	SEA		TOR		x	x	59	3.97	0.95	19%	16th	Limited to 70 pitches (5 scoreless) last time out, his only 5 IP outing in his L3… still streamable in 10s
16	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN		ARI		x	x	51.2	3.83	1.24	16%	18th	Not a locked team streamer, but I’m OK w/it… we’re seeing elements of success, but will that home park undercut him?
17	Kodai Senga	NYM	at	BOS		x	x	89.2	3.31	1.28	17%	14th	Dialed in of late despite the BB still being there: 2.37 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 23% K-BB in L38 IP
18	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	at	SEA		x	x	93.1	4.24	1.29	18%	20th	Y’all know he makes me nervous so I always lean on the sit side w/him, even in a spot like this
19	Ranger Suárez	PHI	at	CLE		x	x	62	3.77	1.34	14%	24th	Control has faded quite a bit w/a 13% BB in 3 July starts, up from 7% in June
20	Alec Marsh	KCR	at	NYY		x	x	9	7.00	1.78	7%	27th	Increasingly better in his F3 starts including an absolute gem v. TBR (6 IP/2 ER/11 Ks) & I’m willing to take the shot
21	Michael Soroka	ATL	at	MIL		x	x	20.1	5.31	1.57	7%	24th	1st start since July 5th (3 relief IP on 7/16), should still get 85-90 pitches if he’s rolling
22	Freddy Peralta	MIL		ATL			x	92	4.70	1.30	17%	1st	Tossed 6 IP of 1-hit ball in CIN last time out, but ATL is a different type of lineup so I’m 100% OK sitting this one out
23	JP Sears	OAK		HOU			x	99.2	3.88	1.03	17%	8th	Might not be worth the gamble in a tough spot here, but I’m still holding him even if he sits
24	Andrew Heaney	TEX		LAD			x	86	4.71	1.34	15%	16th	LAD still scares me enough to pass on this start in most spots
25	Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at	TEX			x	67.2	3.86	1.12	10%	5th	This feels remarkably risky
26	Johan Oviedo	PIT	at	LAA				100.1	4.75	1.42	11%	6th	I was surprised to learn he has 100 IP already… still avoiding LAA with many mid- and low-tier arms
27	Jake Irvin	WSN		SFG				58.2	4.60	1.45	5%	26th	No thanks
28	Tommy Henry	ARI	at	CIN				74.1	3.75	1.32	7%	10th	Too many HR and not nearly enough Ks to start in CIN
29	Alex Wood	SFG	at	WSN				50	4.68	1.48	11%	5th	I’m not finding many starts here w/his Ks down & WSN’s 19% K vL (3rd lowest)
30	Peter Lambert	COL	at	MIA				34.1	6.29	1.63	14%	20th	No thanks

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Hewitt

1 year ago

It looks like Kutter Crawford is slated to go today vs NYM? But regardless of whether he goes today or tomorrow, where would you rank him among this group?

Lots of decent options today in 12 team mixed…Lugo, Olson, Schmidt, maybe Crawford, but I only have space for 1. Does any one of those stand out to you as a ROS full roster?