Starting Pitcher Chart – July 14th

July 14, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

My buddy Nick Pollack suggested a new format for the piece and I think it looks cool, so I’m trying it out. Let me know what you think!

Edit: early feedback is that it’s a tough read on mobile, good to know

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Friday, July 14th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAA		HOU	R	x	x	x	100.1	3.32	1.10	22%	0.328	11th
Seems crazy to not start the MLB HR leader, but his SP numbers might fill a bigger need for a team
2	Luis Castillo	SEA		DET	R	x	x	x	107.1	2.85	1.04	21%	0.3	25th
Helluva 1st half for my AL Cy Young pick, he’s firmly in the mix!
3	Tyler Glasnow	TBR	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	41.2	4.1	1.22	27%	0.28	27th
Hitting a grove w/just 5 ER in his L3 combined with 31 Ks in 16 IP including the gem v. ATL before the break
4	Brayan Bello	BOS	at	CHC	R	x	x	x	80	3.04	1.19	14%	0.319	16th
Has gone 7 in 4 of his L5 and fell just an out shy in the other one
5	Corbin Burnes	MIL	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	107.1	3.94	1.14	14%	0.36	2nd
While he hasn’t been Cy Young level Burnes, he’s been good enough to still easily start in this tough matchup
6	Charlie Morton	ATL		CHW	R	x	x	x	97	3.43	1.41	16%	0.306	23rd
WHIP makes it tough to maintain such a nice ERA; still has value as a high-3.00s/low-4.00s guy in a lot formats
7	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	at	BAL	R	x	x	x	114.1	4.72	1.25	13%	0.332	10th
Solid close to the 1H: 2.89 ERA/1.26 WHIP/16% K-BB in 19 IP… I’m still starting in most spots every time out
8	Justin Verlander	NYM		LAD	R	x	x	x	70	3.6	1.20	13%	0.341	5th
Obviously not the Cy Young guy we saw last yr, but clearly still a start in most spots, even v. LAD
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET	at	SEA	L	x	x	x	71.2	2.64	1.00	21%	0.304	23rd
Rough return from the IL v. OAK but he’s a lineup staple; maybe the extra breather will help, too
10	Dean Kremer	BAL		MIA	R	x	x	x	98	4.78	1.37	16%	0.318	17th
Last 2 were gem (at NYY) & dud (v. MIN); matchup & 20% K-BB in L50 IP make him a worthy stream for me
11	Yu Darvish	SDP	at	PHI	R	x	x	x	85	4.87	1.27	17%	0.317	19th
Sticking with him despite the bumpy road as I’m not seeing any major concerns in the profile
12	Kenta Maeda	MIN	at	OAK	R	x	x	x	33	5.18	1.27	20%	0.274	29th
Excellent in 3 outings since his IL return instilling confidence: 1.59 ERA/0.94 WHIP/25% K-BB
13	Julio Urías	LAD	at	NYM	L	x	x	x	64.1	4.76	1.18	18%	0.304	22nd
Closed 1H strong (6 IP/2 ER/8 Ks) getting into his changeup w/season-high 26% usage… very hit & miss (6 60+ Game Scores; 6 Sub-50s)
14	Jon Gray	TEX		CLE	R	x	x	x	93	3.29	1.14	12%	0.322	15th
6 pt. dip in K% from last yr lowers his reliability going forward, but his ERA is down 65 pts
15	Miles Mikolas	STL		WSN	R	x	x	x	112.2	4.23	1.30	11%	0.316	20th
Running a 3.39 ERA over his L16 starts, allowing >3 ER in 4 and 3 were v. CIN, NYM, HOU so they aren’t trash lineups decking him
16	Cristopher Sánchez	PHI		SDP	L		x	x	25.1	2.84	1.03	18%	0.323	13th
One of my 2H breakout picks: decent sinker, great change, and bat-missing slider
17	Aaron Civale	CLE	at	TEX	R		x	x	52.2	2.56	1.06	13%	0.344	4th
Fully respect TEX so there are some sits here, but he’s been great lately so I’m rolling in many spots
18	Chris Bassitt	TOR		ARI	R		x	x	109.2	4.19	1.23	14%	0.322	14th
Been very hittable w/41 H & .417 BABIP in L6; sticking w/him in many lgs but I don’t love facing ARI
19	Graham Ashcraft	CIN		MIL	R		x	x	81.2	6.28	1.59	7%	0.303	24th
Don’t want to overreact to B2B useful starts; using him here and he’ll jump to team streamer w/solid work
20	Carlos Rodón	NYY	at	COL	L		x	x	5.1	3.38	1.13		0.311	18th
I knooooow it’s Coors, but I might take the shot. Generally start studs there but it’s his 2nd start of the season so I get sitting him
21	Paul Blackburn	OAK		MIN	R		x	x	37	4.86	1.54	17%	0.324	13th
Sub-10% SwStr in 3 of L4 after 12%+ in 3 of first 4; still has a 4.32 FIP & 14% K-BB in those L4
22	Ross Stripling	SFG	at	PIT	R		x	x	41	6.37	1.46	13%	0.272	30th
Hasn’t reached 4 IP in any of his L5 as it seems he’s being limited to no more than 2x thru the lineup… good matchup if you want some decent IP
23	MacKenzie Gore	WSN	at	STL	L			x	89.2	4.42	1.46	18%	0.327	10th
Hit hard of late against some strong teams incl. StL back on 6/20 (5 ER); perfectly viable team streamer
24	Kyle Hendricks	CHC		BOS	R			x	53.1	3.04	1.03	10%	0.334	9th
Feels like a thin margin for error w/the 6% HR/FB helping float his 4.85 SIERA… just be careful
25	J.P. France	HOU	at	LAA	R			x	66.1	3.26	1.21	10%	0.354	3rd
Generally avoid LAA but he’s handled toughest tests w/aplomb (2.70 ERA/1.27 WHIP/12% K-BB v. >.500+ tms) so I can find some starts here
26	Ryne Nelson	ARI	at	TOR	R			x	93.2	5.19	1.43	9%	0.308	21st
Unraveled 3-start surge w/7 ER dud v. NYM; 20% K-BB during the run w/a hot changeup, but NYM pounded the heater… keep tabs on him
27	Michael Kopech	CHW	at	ATL	R				86	4.08	1.36	13%	0.391	1st
I think we’re at Top 10 status only v. ATL and no shame in skipping them w/damn near anyone
28	Rich Hill	PIT		SFG	L				98	4.78	1.44	12%	0.316	15th
He’ll drop his gems throughout the season (6 starts of 55+ Game Score), but the downside is severe (9 under 50) making it a tough bet
29	Austin Gomber	COL		NYY	L				90	6.4	1.51	8%	0.374	4th
I see him on a bit of a roll: 3.99 ERA/1.03 WHIP/16% K-BB in 29 IP but I’m not sure it’s more than some run-hot and I don’t wanna be around for the crash
30	Alec Marsh	KCR		TBR	R				9	7	1.78	7%	0.327	12th
Keeping tabs on him but nowhere near starting until I see some improvement in the control

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues