Starting Pitcher Chart – August 23rd

August 23, 2023

There are some tough spots to navigate on Wednesday with several team streamer or better types either battling some major volatility, facing a tough matchup, or both! Your situation will always be the driving factor in your decisions as the risk/reward calculus is different for everyone.

If I’m really trying to catch lightning in a bottle, I think I’d take the big swing with Quintana. Sale is ahead of him, but unlikely to be as widely available and I just don’t think Sale’s a good bet for 5 IP. I want to be clear, this is for a chase situation where you need some flat out good luck to really get going.

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Starter Notes August.23.2023

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK L30/Season	NOTE
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD at CLE	x	x	x	105.1	2.48	1.03	20%	30th/30th	Could be a looong night for the Guards
2	Shohei Ohtani	LAA v CIN	x	x	x	130.2	3.17	1.06	21%	17th/12th	I wonder how many of y’all are rolling with him in the rotation or is the hitting just too good to pass up?
3	George Kirby	SEA at CHW	x	x	x	150.2	3.23	1.02	20%	29th/30th	Castillo, Woo, Kirby… what a gauntlet for the White Sox
4	Corbin Burnes	MIL v MIN	x	x	x	152	3.43	1.06	16%	7th/9th	The Battle of Los Angeles v. Lance Lynn last time out was one of my favorite games of the year
5	Cole Ragans	KCR at OAK	x	x	x	53	4.08	1.38	16%	21st/28th	Great spot for the rising lefty after a nice battle in Wrigley
6	Sandy Alcantara	MIA at SDP	x	x	x	164.1	4.11	1.18	15%	24th/19th	Far and away his best run of the yr: 2.75 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 19% K-BB in his L10 (68.7 IP)
7	Aaron Civale	TBR v COL	x	x	x	92.1	2.44	1.12	12%	11th/16th	Pitching some of the best baseball we’ve ever seen from him
8	Kenta Maeda	MIN at MIL	x	x	x	69.2	4.13	1.16	23%	26th/25th	His 2 worst starts during this 10-start run (2.68 ERA) have come at OAK and v. DET for some reason
9	Kevin Gausman	TOR at BAL	x	x	x	144.1	3.24	1.16	25%	18th/17th	He’s a staff staple so he’s allowed a dud here and there, nothing to worry about
10	Andrew Abbott	CIN at LAA	x	x	x	81.1	2.99	1.12	19%	23rd/12th	Trout’s back for LAA, but I’m riding w/Abbott 100% right now
11	Seth Lugo	SDP v MIA	x	x	x	103.1	3.92	1.26	18%	22nd/24th	Pretty bankable team streamer w/most of his duds coming against tough teams outside of KCR smoking him back in May
12	Michael Lorenzen	PHI v SFG	x	x	x	126	3.57	1.08	12%	30th/20th	Exhibit 9,108,254 that the 1st performance in a B2B v. the same team is in no way indicative of how the next will go (no hitter then 6 ER in <4 IP)
13	Tarik Skubal	DET v CHC	x	x	x	38.1	3.76	1.07	24%	17th/16th	It’s risky w/the Cubs hitting well of late (though better vR) and I understand a sit, but I’m rolling w/him
14	Zack Thompson	STL at PIT		x	x	30	3.90	1.47	20%	24th/21st	An impressive 30% K-BB in 13 IP across 2 starts and a 4 IP relief app. makes him a worthy streamer
15	Reid Detmers	LAA v CIN		x	x	115	4.93	1.37	18%	26th/18th	Weird to pissed off by a 7 IP of 1-hit ball, but most of us sat him in TEX after B2B 7 ER outings! I’m ready to be hurt again
16	Jameson Taillon	CHC at DET		x	x	110	5.56	1.37	13%	12th/28th	Has the mega-dud at TOR (8 ER), but still has a 3.69 ERA/1.17 WHIP in his L8 even w/that start
17	Charlie Morton	ATL v NYM		x	x	134.2	3.54	1.43	14%	15th/14th	Mostly for the Wins chasers, but if you’re good there and can lose ground in WHIP, he’s a tough start
18	Jack Flaherty	BAL v TOR		x	x	123.2	4.73	1.55	11%	25th/13th	Had nothing in San Diego and it led to blow up start, willing to go back to the well but another dud will require some further assessment
19	Chris Sale	BOS at HOU			x	68	4.50	1.12	22%	1st/3rd	They’re taking their time w/him: 58 and 65 pitches so far leave little margin for error at HOU if he’s at 3-5 IP
20	José Quintana	NYM at ATL			x	35.2	3.03	1.26	7%	3rd/1st	It’s a terrifying matchup but he’s picked up where last yr left off so there are some scenarios where I could see gambling
21	MacKenzie Gore	WSN at NYY			x	123.1	4.38	1.38	17%	2nd/6th	Super risky due more to Gore’s inconsistent nature than NYY’s lineup
22	Alex Cobb	SFG at PHI			x	127.1	3.75	1.39	14%	6th/11th	He was cooked at OAK and schedule has made him a brutal play since then (TEX, at ATL, and now this one)
23	Xzavion Curry	CLE v LAD				75	3.24	1.19	10%	21st/4th	I have some interest in Curry, but not w/this matchup
24	Michael Kopech	CHW v SEA				116	5.12	1.50	8%	3rd/15th	No chance I’m starting him here
25	José Urquidy	HOU v BOS				38	5.21	1.42	13%	8th/6th	No thanks
26	Luis Severino	NYY v WSN				67.2	7.98	1.88	9%	19th/23rd	Hard to see a path to rebuilding confidence for this season, especially as we enter roto stretch run and H2H playoffs
27	Brett Kennedy	CIN at LAA				12	3.00	1.00	6%	27th/8th	Nice 5 IP/0 ER outing v. TOR but it came w/2 Ks and a 7% SwStr so I need more before diving in
28	Kyle Muller	OAK v KCR				55.1	7.64	1.97	4%	20th/24th	Not enough upside
29	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT v STL				53.2	4.86	1.73	3%	9th/5th	No thanks
30	Austin Gomber	COL at TBR				130.1	5.52	1.47	8%	18th/13th	#NeverGomber

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days and for the entire year, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.