Starting Pitcher Chart – August 22nd

August 22, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

If you’ve been reading all year, you know I’m always trying things to hopefully improve the chart. The matchup is now in one column instead of three (the three is for automation purposes in Excel) and I was able to add the wOBA rank for the entire year along w/the Last 30 day rank so you can get a more complete picture. That will also help show why someone might get recommended everywhere despite facing a Top 5 offense over the L30 because I know that team is Bottom 5 for the year and I don’t believe in their hot streak or something to the effect. And this way I don’t have to use the comment explaining that, you’ll just something like 4th/28th and have a better understanding.

I think I’m going to be putting extra commentary in this space down the stretch (not everyday, but multiple times a week) so be sure to check this spot as you scroll down to the sheet. As always, if you want to discuss any further, hit me up in the comments!

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Tuesday, August 22nd, Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK L30/Season	NOTE
1	Zac Gallen	ARI v. TEX	x	x	x	162	3.17	1.05	21%	8th/2nd	Schedule keeps kicking after SD 2x in a row w/CIN and BAL lined up after this toughie… that said, he’s a rotation mainstay
2	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR at BAL	x	x	x	128.1	3.44	1.21	18%	14th/10th	Now 6 straight HR-free starts, tying his career-best streak and the first time carried across 2019-20 (last 2/first 4)
3	Blake Snell	SDP v. MIA	x	x	x	136	2.65	1.26	17%	21st/8th	2 BB last time out were lowest total since 6/28 and yet has baseball’s best ERA since then (and dating all the way back to 5/25 w/a 1.29 ERA in 91 IP)
4	Bobby Miller	LAD at CLE	x	x	x	75.1	3.70	1.17	15%	18th/21st	Would be nice to see him put up a major gem here w/at BOS and v. ATL looming
5	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL v. TOR	x	x	x	81	5.44	1.41	16%	26th/13th	Diving into both his fastball (+5 pts to 50% usage) and slider (+7 to 21%) more en route to +3 pts gains in SwStr (14%) and Chase rate (33%)
6	Justin Verlander	HOU v. BOS	x	x	x	112.1	3.36	1.19	13%	9th/6th	Survived a tough night in MIA by notching the W, he’ll need more than 2 swinging strikes to best BOS
7	Graham Ashcraft	CIN at LAA	x	x	x	127	4.89	1.40	8%	27th/9th	Just seems like the Ks aren’t going to be consistent, but at least we finally saw some good K gms (22% K in 4 starts before just 2 Ks last start)
8	Zack Littell	TBR v. COL	x	x	x	47.1	3.99	1.23	18%	16th/15th	Just keeps getting it done and now has 10 Ks/0 BB in his the last 2 gems… Zacffrey Sprittell? (this is more about RP-to-SP transition, Springs had better core skills for sure)
9	Bailey Ober	MIN at MIL	x	x	x	113.2	3.40	1.13	20%	25th/26th	Normally a power threat, there’s been an outage for MIL as they top only SFG in ISO vRH (.124)
10	Jesús Luzardo	MIA at SDP		x	x	137.1	4.13	1.29	21%	4th/5th	He’s one of those scary guys to sit bc it seems like he’ll drop the 13-K gm again as soon as you do, but it’s OK to sit if you’re protecting (don’t cut, though)
11	Jon Gray	TEX at ARI		x	x	127.2	3.52	1.19	13%	22nd/10th	Seems to have emerged from his lull (6.08 ERA in 5 starts) w/B2B 7 IP gems
12	Bryan Woo	SEA at CHW		x	x	55	4.75	1.24	19%	28th/30th	Missed close the minimum w/his forearm issue so I’m putting him right back in just about everywhere (OK in 10s, but not a must)
13	Mike Clevinger	CHW v. SEA		x	x	85.2	3.26	1.25	11%	4th/16th	Gem at Wrigley v. a strong Cubs club builds some confidence for me even w/SEA playing well
14	Wade Miley	MIL v. MIN		x	x	82.2	3.05	1.17	9%	13th/25th	Only 2 decisions in his L5 despite a 3.12 ERA which is tough bc he needs some Ws to counterbalance the dearth of Ks (16% on the yr)
15	Carlos Rodón	NYY v. WSN		x	x	27	7.33	1.52	6%	12th/7th	Situation-dependent here for sure. If you’re chasing, take the shot on the 2 (at TBR this wknd), but I don’t blame anyone who skips this
16	Lucas Giolito	LAA v. CIN		x	x	142	4.44	1.27	16%	15th/11th	It’s been easy to skip the duds w/LAA so far (at TOR , at ATL, at TEX); rolling w/him here, but another dud would put at PHI in question next wk
17	Taijuan Walker	PHI v. SFG		x	x	131.2	4.03	1.28	9%	30th/20th	Had a start skipped as sort of a reset button and I’m willing to slot him back him given this great matchup
18	Drew Smyly	CHC at DET			x	120.2	4.92	1.37	14%	28th/26th	Revenge Game? Despite 3 1-IP relief outings sinec his last start, they’ll let him go 5+ if he’s throwing well
19	Bryce Elder	ATL v. NYM			x	138	3.46	1.21	10%	13th/14th	I’m not automatically putting him back in after the gem v. NYY, but he’s a consideration again
20	Josiah Gray	WSN at NYY			x	129.2	3.96	1.47	9%	29th/27th	Hasn’t finished 5 in any of his L3… at least it hasn’t been bc of HRs, but I’m still playing it cautiously even w/this matchup
21	Zack Greinke	KCR at OAK			x	110.2	5.53	1.27	13%	21st/29th	Sure, the matchup is good enough to roll if you really need a streamer
22	Reese Olson	DET v. CHC				63.1	4.83	1.23	16%	2nd/7th	Too much risk to take this gamble against this spry Cubs lineup
23	Tanner Houck	BOS at HOU				67.2	5.05	1.26	14%	17th/18th	Coming back from a 2+ mo. absence so it’s easy to see a sub-5 IP outing here, espec. in HOU
24	Johan Oviedo	PIT v. STL				140.1	4.55	1.34	10%	12th/5th	Big day for Revenge Games… 1 of them will probably go off, but I wouldn’t begin to suggest I know which one it’ll be
25	Noah Syndergaard	CLE v. LAD				76.2	6.57	1.45	10%	7th/4th	Not sure the Revenge Game Factor will be enough to help Thor
26	Kyle Harrison	SFG at PHI				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	9th/15th	Big arm w/standard prospect command and control issues (16% BB, 1.4 HR) that make him super risky for the short-term
27	Adam Wainwright	STL at PIT				72.2	8.42	2.01	3%	11th/22nd	No thanks
28	Hogan Harris	OAK v. KCR				59.1	6.98	1.48	9%	20th/24th	No thanks
29	Tylor Megill	NYM at ATL				86.1	5.53	1.70	6%	1st/1st	Hardddd pass
30	Ty Blach	COL at TBR				37	4.14	1.46	4%	19th/13th	More like Ty Blech, amirite? (joke suggested by the comments and an absolute winner IMO!)

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues