Starting Pitcher Chart – April 5th
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. At the outset, I will put their 2022 stats along with the note. The opponent wOBA will remain blank – or rather just not be included in the chart – for a while until we get some data (7-10 days at least) and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. These are for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can mentally widen the range for H2H formats.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | LAST YR STATS | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | TBR | at WAS | L | x | x | x | 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 24% K-BB | Schedule gods blessed him w/DET & at WAS to start the season |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | BAL | R | x | x | x | 3.08 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 39% K-BB | Looking to rebound after the ugly Opening Day start |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | DET | R | x | x | x | 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 24% K-BB | Picking up where ’22 left off w/a brilliant 23% SwStr in his debut |
| Dylan Cease | CHW | SFG | R | x | x | x | 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 20% K-BB | Beautiful opener in HOU; will go as far as the control takes him |
| Gerrit Cole | NYY | PHI | R | x | x | x | 3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 26% K-BB | Just a casual 50% K rate on Opening Day |
| Corbin Burnes | MIL | NYM | R | x | x | x | 2.94 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 24% K-BB | Cubs got to him in last year’s opener, too |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | at SEA | R | x | x | x | 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 27% K-BB | Only this low because it’s an ace-filled day, but they’re all auto-start studs |
| Alek Manoah | TOR | at KCR | R | x | x | x | 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 16% K-BB | Hoping to rebound after StL roughed him up on Opening Day |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | at NYY | R | x | x | x | 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 26% K-BB | Not a great venue, but obviously never sitting him |
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | MIN | L | x | x | x | 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 21% K-BB | Can he stay healthy and complete the breakout this year? |
| Pablo López | MIN | at MIA | R | x | x | x | 3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 16% K-BB | Early revenge game after the offseason trade |
| Hunter Greene | CIN | CHC | R | x | x | x | 4.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 22% K-BB | Command makes him super volatile and we saw some downside in his opener |
| Logan Webb | SFG | at CWS | R | x | x | x | 2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15% K-BB | Huge K surge on Opening Day… a harbinger for a return to the mid-20%s K%? |
| Miles Mikolas | STL | ATL | R | x | x | x | 3.29 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 14% K-BB | TOR/ATL is a tough start to the season, at least both are at home |
| David Peterson | NYM | at MIL | L | x | x | x | 3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 17% K-BB | Battling Megill to hold the spot when JV returns |
| Corey Kluber | BOS | PIT | R | x | x | x | 4.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 17% K-BB | Just a streamer these days & matchups don’t get much better than PIT |
| Marcus Stroman | CHC | at CIN | R | x | x | 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 15% K-BB | Tremendous debut, but I’m still nervous at CIN for a notoriously low-K% guy | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | at HOU | L | x | x | 4.05 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 10% K-BB | Don’t love throwing anyone at HOU, but their lineup isn’t nearly as deep this yr | |
| Kyle Muller | OAK | CLE | L | x | 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB in MiLB | Sharp debut… let’s see it again | ||
| Mitch Keller | PIT | at BOS | R | x | 3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Popular sleeper pick draws a rough 2nd start | ||
| Bryce Elder | ATL | at STL | R | x | 3.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11% K-BB | Cards lineup too deeper to trust streamers very often | ||
| BAL | at TEX | R | 5.05 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 13% K-BB | Heads back to his old stomping ground against a much better lineup than he had | ||||
| Zack Greinke | KCR | TOR | R | 3.68 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8% K-BB | I’ll use him in some 2-start wks, not a 1-off v. a tough lineup | |||
| Hunter Gaddis | CLE | at OAK | R | 4.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 24% K-BB in MiLB | Not ready to trust him even in a great matchup | |||
| Chris Flexen 플렉센 | SEA | LAA | R | 3.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8% K-BB | Be careful going against LAA with anyone but your studs | |||
| Patrick Corbin | WAS | TBR | L | 6.31 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 11% K-BB | No… just no |
It’s pretty brutal how the Nationals have determined that because they overpaid for the back-end of the Corbin contract they’re just going to let him get mercilessly abused by other teams until his arm falls. How long until they go the Chris Davis route and realize that giving anyone else a shot is a better move?