Starting Pitcher Chart – April 3rd, 2026

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Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.
The chart includes their performance for 2025 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations, you don’t really need a shiny stat to be convinced on starting guys like that. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment and I’ll get you an answer when I can. I try to do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
I didn’t write up yesterday’s tiny 3-gm board as it felt really straightforward and making the charts might’ve taken longer than anything else. 🤣 Maybe for 5-game and lower boards this year (which will be a rare Mon/Thu), I just do a quick-hitter list without the charting since that can be really fast.
| Rk | PITCHER | Tm | Opp | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | opp wOBA RK | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Woo | SEA | at LAA | x | x | x | 186.2 | 2.94 | 0.93 | 22% | 26 | Today’s studs are not only good, but also have great matchups outside of Eury at NYY (still starting him!) |
| 2 | Kyle Bradish | BAL | at PIT | x | x | x | 32 | 2.53 | 1.03 | 29% | 30 | |
| 3 | Framber Valdez | DET | v. STL | x | x | x | 192 | 3.66 | 1.24 | 15% | 18 | |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | TOR | at CHW | x | x | x | 168 | 4.55 | 1.33 | 20% | 29 | |
| 5 | Cade Horton | CHC | at CLE | x | x | x | 118 | 2.67 | 1.08 | 13% | 28 | |
| 6 | Eury Pérez | MIA | at NYY | x | x | x | 95.1 | 4.25 | 1.05 | 19% | 1 | |
| 7 | Nolan McLean | NYM | at SFG | x | x | x | 48 | 2.06 | 1.04 | 22% | 15 | I think his WHIP will be worse than expected bc of the BB but the upside is just so high otherwise |
| 8 | Michael King | SDP | at BOS | x | x | x | 73.1 | 3.44 | 1.20 | 16% | 11 | 4 BB in debut wasn’t great but offset it with just 1 H vs. DET |
| 9 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | at WSN | x | x | x | 73.1 | 2.82 | 0.97 | 23% | 21 | Suffered an opening dud that unfortunately might have some merit, as he was down 2 mph & had late-Spring struggles |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | BOS | v. SDP | x | x | x | 180.2 | 4.28 | 1.23 | 22% | 16 | Shaky Spring Training and debut dud aren’t enough to panic, he gets 4-5 starts before any freaking out, even at 36 y/o |
| 11 | MacKenzie Gore | TEX | v. CIN | x | x | x | 159.2 | 4.17 | 1.35 | 18% | 25 | He’ll likely have bad BB games even if he fully breaks out, the key will be chiseling down that career .323 BABIP |
| 12 | Brady Singer | CIN | at TEX | x | x | x | 169.2 | 4.03 | 1.24 | 14% | 24 | Good venue to get on track after uninspiring ST and bumpy debut v. BOS |
| 13 | Chad Patrick | MIL | at KCR | x | x | 119.2 | 3.53 | 1.28 | 17% | 18 | Last year was legit and he has the skills to be even better than his out of nowhere rookie season | |
| 14 | Joe Boyle | TBR | at MIN | x | x | 52 | 4.67 | 1.37 | 13% | 22 | Take advantage while he’s still in as Pepiot could take his spot next week even though it should be Matz | |
| 15 | Will Warren | NYY | v. MIA | x | x | 162.1 | 4.44 | 1.37 | 15% | 13 | Inconsistent in ’25 but did take 33 turns which is a big deal; I like a step forward this year | |
| 16 | Reid Detmers | LAA | v. SEA | x | x | 63.2 | 3.96 | 1.30 | 21% | 12 | Long-time fave of mine now has a competent pitching coach to hopefully get the best out of him | |
| 17 | Tyler Mahle | SFG | v. NYM | x | x | 86.2 | 2.18 | 1.13 | 11% | 2 | Don’t mind him at home even in a tough matchup | |
| 18 | Grant Holmes | ATL | at ARI | x | x | 115 | 3.99 | 1.34 | 14% | 5 | Even if you don’t want this one, I’d hold him for at LAA/v. MIA coming up in his next 2 starts | |
| 19 | Joey Cantillo | CLE | v. CHC | x | 95.1 | 3.21 | 1.26 | 16% | 7 | They haven’t exploded yet but I am generally fearful of CHC w/my mid- and lower-tier arms | ||
| 20 | Michael McGreevy | STL | at DET | x | 95.2 | 4.42 | 1.25 | 10% | 19 | Catching the DET offense in a lull but still not sure he has enough swing & miss to rise above streamer status | ||
| 21 | Mitch Keller | PIT | v. BAL | 176.1 | 4.19 | 1.26 | 13% | 20 | There’ll be some home starts I don’t mind running him in… this is not one of them! | |||
| 22 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | v. ATL | 154.1 | 5.02 | 1.54 | 12% | 14 | Better than the 5.00 ERA/1.50 WHIP we’ve seen the last 2 yrs, but how much better remains to be seen | |||
| 23 | Sean Burke | CHW | v. TOR | 134.1 | 4.22 | 1.44 | 12% | 6 | Grant Taylor as Opener adds to Win chance but still has to tame TOR & his offense has to hit Cease | |||
| 24 | Aaron Nola | PHI | at COL | 94.1 | 6.01 | 1.35 | 17% | 27 | Not going to Coors w/the guy who has a 1.5 HR & 8.8 H over his L300 IP | |||
| 25 | Cristian Javier | HOU | at ATH | 37 | 4.62 | 1.27 | 12% | 7 | ATH offense has stunk but their home park might be exactly what they need to break through | |||
| 26 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | v. HOU | 171 | 4.11 | 1.21 | 12% | 10 | No ATH pitchers at home! | |||
| 27 | Bailey Ober | MIN | v. TBR | 146.1 | 5.10 | 1.30 | 14% | 12 | Sub-90 mph velo takes him entirely out of consideration for me | |||
| 28 | Luinder Avila | KCR | v. MIL | 14 | 1.29 | 0.93 | 18% | 8 | Org level prospect w/some swing and miss but 10%+ BB rates at every stop since 2024 | |||
| 29 | Michael Lorenzen | COL | v. PHI | 141.2 | 4.64 | 1.33 | 15% | 3 | ||||
| 30 | Miles Mikolas | WSN | v. LAD | 156.1 | 4.84 | 1.32 | 9% | 4 |
Have one start left for the week in my H2H matchup. Roll out Eury @NYY today or C. Burns @TEX on Sunday? Trust Eury more, but thinking I hold out for the better matchup w/ Burns.
Wind over 10 mph:
WAS – wind out to left at 11 mphDET – straight across from R to L at 14 mphNYY – out to left at 10 mphBOS – out to left at 10 mphCOL – in from left at 18 mphCLE – straight across from left to right at 10 mphPIT – straight across from R to L at 13 mphKCR – out to center at 11 mphSFG – out to center at 17 mph – Oracle was designed to minimize wind impacts so this isn’t as big as it seemsRain – KCR, PIT, MIN all with >50% chances at some point during the game
BTW, there was an article last year on mlb.com talking about which parks are most impacted by wind. There are a couple ways to measure that but the 1st chart was # of batted balls moved 25+ feet by wind in 2023-24 which went like this:
Wrigley
Enormous gap
Fenway
NYM
Small gap
KCR
COL
NYY
PHI
WAS
CHW
OAK – this was when they were still in OAK so ignore this one
SEA
ATL
DET
STL
MIN
SFG
CLE
CIN
LAD
MIL
BAL
PIT
TEX
AZ/HOU/LAA/MIA/SDP/TB – domes other than SDP and LAA which still registered zero batted balls moved 25+ ft