Starting Pitcher Chart – April 3rd, 2024
by Paul Sporer
April 2, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Starter Notes April 3, 2024
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK Last Season | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Strider | ATL at CHW | x | x | x | 186 | 3.86 | 1.09 | 29% | 30th | Cannot fathom trying to hit him in nasty 40-degree weather |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | BAL v KCR | x | x | x | 193 | 3.39 | 1.07 | 17% | 26th | Obviously an auto-start in all formats, but KC might be sneaky deece this year! |
| 3 | Nick Pivetta | BOS at OAK | x | x | x | 142 | 4.04 | 1.12 | 23% | 29th | Picked up where last yr left off w/an absolute gem to open the yr (48% K, 19% SwStr in 6 IP) |
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD v SFG | x | x | x | 120 | 3.53 | 1.08 | 26% | 23rd | Whiffs are there (16% SwStr) even though Ks haven’t been yet (19% K) |
| 5 | Zack Wheeler | PHI v CIN | x | x | x | 192 | 3.61 | 1.08 | 22% | 10th | Keep tabs on the weather for DFS purposes as they’ve moved this gm up to hopefully get it in |
| 6 | George Kirby | SEA v CLE | x | x | x | 190 | 3.35 | 1.04 | 20% | 22nd | One of my favorite pitchers to watch every fifth day |
| 7 | Cole Ragans | KCR at BAL | x | x | x | 96 | 3.47 | 1.16 | 18% | 17th | Another gem of a matchup for Ragans, this time squaring off v. Burnes |
| 8 | Cristian Javier | HOU v TOR | x | x | x | 162 | 4.56 | 1.27 | 14% | 11th | I’ll be keeping tabs on this new changeup usage to see how much of it sticks (28% in 1st start; 5% career) |
| 9 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI v NYY | x | x | x | 177 | 3.29 | 1.19 | 16% | 27th | Tough matchup, but confidence is running pretty high w/Kelly after 2022-23 |
| 10 | Casey Mize | DET at NYM | x | x | x | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 16th | PPD Tuesday night moving Mize to Wed; Skubal to Thurs |
| 11 | Joe Musgrove | SDP v STL | x | x | x | 97 | 3.05 | 1.14 | 19% | 9th | Still rolling him out there, but can’t pretend I’m nerve-free after a bumpy ST and 2 meh starts |
| 12 | Aaron Civale | TBR v TEX | x | x | x | 122 | 3.46 | 1.16 | 16% | 3rd | Won’t blame shallow leaguers for sitting out, but I’m riding w/him |
| 13 | Logan Allen | CLE at SEA | x | x | x | 125 | 3.81 | 1.40 | 13% | 14th | Bumpy outing at OAK wasn’t fun to see, but sticking w/him for another couple (CHW after this) |
| 14 | Chris Bassitt | TOR at HOU | x | x | x | 200 | 3.60 | 1.18 | 15% | 7th | Similar to Civale where I understand a shallow sit, but he’s a guy I trust |
| 15 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX at TBR | x | x | x | 144 | 3.63 | 1.14 | 15% | 4th | When healthy, he’s pretty much a must-ish start |
| 16 | Carlos Rodón | NYY at ARI | x | x | 64 | 6.85 | 1.45 | 13% | 13th | Open to some sits here, though still holding everywhere w/MIA next wk | |
| 17 | Mitch Keller | PIT at WSN | x | x | 194 | 4.21 | 1.25 | 19% | 25th | Velo down over 1 mph, but it’s 1 start and he still had a sparkling 16% SwStr | |
| 18 | Adrian Houser | NYM v DET | x | x | 111 | 4.12 | 1.39 | 13% | 28th | Moved back after PPD… streamable start given DET’s slow offensive start | |
| 19 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA at MIA | x | x | 144 | 4.11 | 1.51 | 8% | 21st | If he flops here, we move on, but a good start would earn another wk on roster | |
| 20 | A.J. Puk | MIA v LAA | x | x | 56 | 3.97 | 1.18 | 27% | 15th | Utterly disastrous debut, but I gotta give him more than 2 IP… need to see some improvements here | |
| 21 | Chris Paddack | MIN at MIL | x | x | 5 | 5.40 | 1.40 | 32% | 24th | Was the cheapest avenue into the MIN rotation, I’m eager to see what he does this yr | |
| 22 | Frankie Montas | CIN at PHI | x | 1 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 0% | 6th | A long-time Sporer fave… I wanna be in, but PHI is almost as bad as his home park so be careful | ||
| 23 | Joe Ross | MIL v MIN | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 5th | Speaking of Sporer faves, he’s back on my radar after a 30% K/19% SwStr in ST but gotta see something first | |||
| 24 | Kyle Harrison | SFG at LAD | 34 | 4.15 | 1.15 | 16% | 2nd | Very intriguing young arm, but can’t do it at LAD | |||
| 25 | Nick Nastrini | CHW v ATL | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 1st | An interesting arm to keep tabs on, but not sure CHW SPs are going to shut ATL down B2B nights | |||
| 26 | Cal Quantrill | COL at CHC | 99 | 5.24 | 1.46 | 5% | 12th | Have a tinge of streamer viability outside of Coors, but deeeeep lgs only | |||
| 27 | Zack Thompson | STL at SDP | 66 | 4.48 | 1.42 | 16% | 18th | Could be a righty Quantrill w/some streamer potential throughout the season, but not here | |||
| 28 | Drew Smyly | CHC v COL | 142 | 5.00 | 1.43 | 14% | 19th | Miiiight run this in SUPER deep lgs just bc COL looks so bad to start the yr | |||
| 29 | Trevor Williams | WSN v PIT | 144 | 5.55 | 1.60 | 9% | 20th | Be careful streaming v. PIT even w/more viable arms | |||
| 30 | Ross Stripling | OAK v BOS | 89 | 5.36 | 1.35 | 14% | 8th | What a day for old Sporer faves, alas I haven’t gone to the Strip-a-Dip well in quite some time |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Could you provide an example of a statistical-based note that might be included in the chart? uno online
check out some of last year’s in the archive — https://www.fangraphs.com/blog-roll?category=SP+Chart