Starting Pitcher Chart – April 3rd, 2024

April 2, 2024

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Starter Notes April 3, 2024

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK Last Season	NOTE
1	Spencer Strider	ATL at CHW	x	x	x	186	3.86	1.09	29%	30th	Cannot fathom trying to hit him in nasty 40-degree weather
2	Corbin Burnes	BAL v KCR	x	x	x	193	3.39	1.07	17%	26th	Obviously an auto-start in all formats, but KC might be sneaky deece this year!
3	Nick Pivetta	BOS at OAK	x	x	x	142	4.04	1.12	23%	29th	Picked up where last yr left off w/an absolute gem to open the yr (48% K, 19% SwStr in 6 IP)
4	Tyler Glasnow	LAD v SFG	x	x	x	120	3.53	1.08	26%	23rd	Whiffs are there (16% SwStr) even though Ks haven’t been yet (19% K)
5	Zack Wheeler	PHI v CIN	x	x	x	192	3.61	1.08	22%	10th	Keep tabs on the weather for DFS purposes as they’ve moved this gm up to hopefully get it in
6	George Kirby	SEA v CLE	x	x	x	190	3.35	1.04	20%	22nd	One of my favorite pitchers to watch every fifth day
7	Cole Ragans	KCR at BAL	x	x	x	96	3.47	1.16	18%	17th	Another gem of a matchup for Ragans, this time squaring off v. Burnes
8	Cristian Javier	HOU v TOR	x	x	x	162	4.56	1.27	14%	11th	I’ll be keeping tabs on this new changeup usage to see how much of it sticks (28% in 1st start; 5% career)
9	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI v NYY	x	x	x	177	3.29	1.19	16%	27th	Tough matchup, but confidence is running pretty high w/Kelly after 2022-23
10	Casey Mize	DET at NYM	x	x	x	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	16th	PPD Tuesday night moving Mize to Wed; Skubal to Thurs
11	Joe Musgrove	SDP v STL	x	x	x	97	3.05	1.14	19%	9th	Still rolling him out there, but can’t pretend I’m nerve-free after a bumpy ST and 2 meh starts
12	Aaron Civale	TBR v TEX	x	x	x	122	3.46	1.16	16%	3rd	Won’t blame shallow leaguers for sitting out, but I’m riding w/him
13	Logan Allen	CLE at SEA	x	x	x	125	3.81	1.40	13%	14th	Bumpy outing at OAK wasn’t fun to see, but sticking w/him for another couple (CHW after this)
14	Chris Bassitt	TOR at HOU	x	x	x	200	3.60	1.18	15%	7th	Similar to Civale where I understand a shallow sit, but he’s a guy I trust
15	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX at TBR	x	x	x	144	3.63	1.14	15%	4th	When healthy, he’s pretty much a must-ish start
16	Carlos Rodón	NYY at ARI		x	x	64	6.85	1.45	13%	13th	Open to some sits here, though still holding everywhere w/MIA next wk
17	Mitch Keller	PIT at WSN		x	x	194	4.21	1.25	19%	25th	Velo down over 1 mph, but it’s 1 start and he still had a sparkling 16% SwStr
18	Adrian Houser	NYM v DET		x	x	111	4.12	1.39	13%	28th	Moved back after PPD… streamable start given DET’s slow offensive start
19	Patrick Sandoval	LAA at MIA		x	x	144	4.11	1.51	8%	21st	If he flops here, we move on, but a good start would earn another wk on roster
20	A.J. Puk	MIA v LAA		x	x	56	3.97	1.18	27%	15th	Utterly disastrous debut, but I gotta give him more than 2 IP… need to see some improvements here
21	Chris Paddack	MIN at MIL		x	x	5	5.40	1.40	32%	24th	Was the cheapest avenue into the MIN rotation, I’m eager to see what he does this yr
22	Frankie Montas	CIN at PHI			x	1	0.00	2.25	0%	6th	A long-time Sporer fave… I wanna be in, but PHI is almost as bad as his home park so be careful
23	Joe Ross	MIL v MIN				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	5th	Speaking of Sporer faves, he’s back on my radar after a 30% K/19% SwStr in ST but gotta see something first
24	Kyle Harrison	SFG at LAD				34	4.15	1.15	16%	2nd	Very intriguing young arm, but can’t do it at LAD
25	Nick Nastrini	CHW v ATL				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	1st	An interesting arm to keep tabs on, but not sure CHW SPs are going to shut ATL down B2B nights
26	Cal Quantrill	COL at CHC				99	5.24	1.46	5%	12th	Have a tinge of streamer viability outside of Coors, but deeeeep lgs only
27	Zack Thompson	STL at SDP				66	4.48	1.42	16%	18th	Could be a righty Quantrill w/some streamer potential throughout the season, but not here
28	Drew Smyly	CHC v COL				142	5.00	1.43	14%	19th	Miiiight run this in SUPER deep lgs just bc COL looks so bad to start the yr
29	Trevor Williams	WSN v PIT				144	5.55	1.60	9%	20th	Be careful streaming v. PIT even w/more viable arms
30	Ross Stripling	OAK v BOS				89	5.36	1.35	14%	8th	What a day for old Sporer faves, alas I haven’t gone to the Strip-a-Dip well in quite some time

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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williamolson

1 year ago

Could you provide an example of a statistical-based note that might be included in the chart? uno online

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to williamolson

check out some of last year’s in the archive — https://www.fangraphs.com/blog-roll?category=SP+Chart