Starting Pitcher Chart – April 29th, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th — a little earlier than last yr), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th which is still a pretty small sample, but we can start attacking some cold lineups or be more careful with those performing well so far), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Starter Notes April 29, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | PHI v WSN | x | x | x | 37 | 3.62 | 1.02 | 29% | 13th | |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | BOS at TOR | x | x | x | 37 | 1.95 | 1.05 | 20% | 3rd | |
| 3 | Jacob deGrom | TEX v ATH | x | x | x | 27 | 3.33 | 1.07 | 17% | 14th | He hasn’t quite been DEGROM yet, but still an easy must-start everywhere |
| 4 | Logan Webb | SFG at SDP | x | x | x | 36 | 1.98 | 1.10 | 24% | 18th | |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | MIL at CHW | x | x | x | 33 | 2.43 | 1.08 | 18% | 28th | A little light on the volume, reaching 6 IP just 1x, but we can’t argue w/the results |
| 6 | Nick Pivetta | SDP v SFG | x | x | x | 30 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 21% | 17th | Absolutely dialed in right now and I’m really excited to see him and Webb duel at Petco |
| 7 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN at PHI | x | x | x | 35 | 3.34 | 1.14 | 31% | 10th | 2nd in K% (36%) to only Logan Gilbert ( 🙁 ); still hasn’t cracked the BABIP issue, but he can live w/a high at this K-BB level |
| 8 | Carlos Rodón | NYY at BAL | x | x | x | 36 | 3.50 | 1.06 | 19% | 30th | Good example of why we don’t overreact to the early small samples: 5.48 ERA thru 4 and now has allowed just 1 UER in his L13 IP |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | KCR at TBR | x | x | x | 30 | 4.40 | 1.17 | 29% | 24th | This is still up in the air as of my writing… I’m probably starting him if he’s a go, but I do understand passing |
| 10 | Reese Olson | DET at HOU | x | x | x | 27 | 3.29 | 1.24 | 12% | 27th | After walking 8 in his first 3 starts, he has just 3 in 12.3 scoreless since then |
| 11 | Bryce Miller | SEA v LAA | x | x | x | 25 | 4.21 | 1.44 | 10% | 23rd | At least 2 BB in every start so far; did that just 13x last yr so ya know… it’s not not an issue |
| 12 | Andrew Heaney | PIT v CHC | x | x | x | 31 | 1.72 | 0.77 | 21% | 2nd | Biiig matchup here for him, but I’m riding the hot hand here; there will be regression on this ERA/WHIP combo, but if he can live around this 21% K-BB, it doesn’t have to be a sharp regression… it’ll come down to the HRs |
| 13 | Shota Imanaga | CHC at PIT | x | x | x | 34 | 3.18 | 1.09 | 11% | 23rd | Hard not to think the 11% K-BB & 1.9 HR9 will catch up to him when the .196 BABIP & 88% LOB regress |
| 14 | Taj Bradley | TBR v KCR | x | x | x | 28 | 5.08 | 1.38 | 13% | 29th | This is the right matchup to get right after just 6 Ks in his last 2 starts |
| 15 | Tanner Bibee | CLE v MIN | x | x | 26 | 5.19 | 1.46 | 5% | 21st | Solid start last time out (6 IP/2 ER), but still 3 BB (3rd straight w/at least 3 BB) | |
| 16 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI at NYM | x | x | 28 | 4.40 | 1.29 | 22% | 11th | Was cruising before 2 runs in the 7th spoiled it giving him 4 ER in 6.7 IP | |
| 17 | David Peterson | NYM v ARI | x | x | 27 | 3.29 | 1.43 | 16% | 16th | I’m still pretty nervous w/that WHIP as the 81% LOB dam won’t hold forever | |
| 18 | LAD v MIA | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 20th | |||||
| 19 | Brady Singer | CIN v STL | x | x | 27 | 3.62 | 1.13 | 21% | 11th | Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his 5 starts | |
| 20 | Ryan Gusto | HOU v DET | x | 22 | 2.78 | 1.10 | 21% | 16th | Pretty solid in 3 starts: 3.68 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 20% K-BB in 14.7 IP | ||
| 21 | Bowden Francis | TOR v BOS | x | 27 | 3.58 | 1.19 | 12% | 12th | The bill will eventually come due on a 2.0 HR9 | ||
| 22 | BAL v NYY | x | 25 | 5.04 | 1.72 | 12% | 1st | ||||
| 23 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA at LAD | 23 | 6.56 | 1.33 | 5% | 8th | Aces-only at LAD and Sandy has certainly fallen short of being an ace | |||
| 24 | Miles Mikolas | STL at CIN | 23 | 5.70 | 1.52 | 4% | 5th | ||||
| 25 | Chris Paddack | MIN at CLE | 22 | 6.45 | 1.61 | 7% | 19th | ||||
| 26 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA at SEA | 26 | 5.47 | 1.48 | 4% | 3rd | ||||
| 27 | Hogan Harris | ATH at TEX | 2 | 1.13 | 27% | 20th | |||||
| 28 | Germán Márquez | COL v ATL | 20 | 9.30 | 2.02 | 3% | 10th | ||||
| 29 | ATL at COL | 21 | 5.57 | 1.48 | 4% | 26th | I didn’t watch the ATL/COL gm on Monday so I missed that Elder started. AJ Smith-Shawver might get the Tues. start, but it’s still not confirmed. | ||||
| 30 | Bryse Wilson | CHW v MIL | 14 | 4.30 | 1.84 | 6% | 9th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
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Isnt Gibson going for the Os?
‘
TY for these!!!!
Yes indeed, updated it this morning!
Gonsolin Wednesday correct?
Yes, I see he was moved, too! Probables grid smoked me last night!!!
Elder started last night. Smith-Shawver is listed on the Probables Grid.
Probables board did a number of me last night… had a few that weren’t correct!
Totally get the concerns about Imanaga’s peripherals (that 5.21 FIP is… not great), but worth pointing out that his plate discipline and stuff metrics suggest significant positive regression in his K and BB rates too. He’s got the 10th highest chase rate, 17th highest whiff rate, 18th highest zone% and 21st highest F-strike% among qualified pitchers. There’s not much to suggest he should have a below average K rate and subpar BB rate (though HRs will always be a concern).
Yeah he’s def got some nastiness that can give him a margin for error even when the metrics aren’t fully in line so while I have some nerves, I’m not gonna pretend he isn’t dope and of course, he’s never comin outta the lineup right now
I have an OC that has had good fortune to be top 10ish overall. Today I have Wheeler, deGrom, Webb, Pivetta, Heaney going, with them all lining up for 2 starts this week. Certainly going to be a big day!
Let’s goooo!!! Huge week incoming, stay hot baby!
Still ended up likely as net positive into top 5 overall, but what a weird start from Heaney. 0 strikeouts, lol
Felt like we haddd to start him bc he had strong underlying skills backing up the hot start, but at the same time we all knew he was far from a sure thing against this Cubs teams. Meanwhile, I think CHC is entering aces-only territory these days
12 team redraft, 27 man rosters, can start up to 5 guys every day and no starts/innings limits. Standard 5 pitching cats plus K/9 and QS. (We should be doing W + QS IMO, but I don’t run the league).
All of the following are on the waiver: Roupp, Hicks, Kikuchi, Schmidt, Warren, S Smith.
This is less about whether anyone would take those guys over guys I’m rostering (I really like my pitching FWIW), but those guys need to be on someone’s roster, right? I mean, 12 teams, those guys need to be held by someone