Starting Pitcher Chart – April 27th
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Trying something new by splitting up the data a bit with the recos & comments in one chart and the recos and stats in another. Let me know if that’s preferable to putting it all in one. I decided this after writing it, but for the future this could give me a bit more space for deeper comments, too. At any rate, I’m open to any feedback even if it’s constructive criticism!
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | OAK | R | x | x | x | Hasn’t allowed more than 3 H in an outing and OAK isn’t a great bet to be the first (watch them get 8 H outta nowhere today, lol) | |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | at | TEX | R | x | x | x | Almost at a boringly good level at this pt |
| 3 | Shane McClanahan | TBR | at | CHW | L | x | x | x | Hard for the 11% BB to hurt when batters have a .176 AVG against him |
| 4 | Tyler Mahle | MIN | KCR | R | x | x | x | Running a career-high K-BB, but previous HR issues remain (1.7) despite escaping Great American Ballpark | |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | CHW | TBR | R | x | x | x | I don’t love starting anyone v. TBR, but Cease is a rotation lock even w/the 11% BB | |
| 6 | George Kirby | SEA | at | PHI | R | x | x | x | Just 1 BB all season has kept his WHIP tiny despite a 9.1 H rate |
| 7 | Julio Urías | LAD | at | PIT | L | x | x | x | PIT not a walkover right now but that doesn’t mean I’m sitting Urias anywhere |
| 8 | Logan Webb | SFG | STL | R | x | x | x | K% has spiked to 30% despite matching career SwStr of 11% and only a 3-pt boost in called-strike rate | |
| 9 | Joey Lucchesi | NYM | at | WSN | L | x | x | x | Looked sharp back in ’21 before inj. & has been really solid over his career (4.07 SIERA, 17% K-BB in 345 IP) |
| 10 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | at | DET | R | x | x | x | Hold him after this one for an at KCR start next week |
| 11 | Kyle Wright | ATL | MIA | R | x | x | x | Still ramping up after a bit, but I have no issues starting him everywhere | |
| 12 | Andrew Heaney | TEX | NYY | L | x | x | x | Now has 3 straight HR-free outings | |
| 13 | Matt Strahm | PHI | SEA | L | x | x | Walks a wire w/his low pitch count meaning he has to be really sharp to reach 5 IP; the 38% K seals the stream for me | ||
| 14 | Seth Lugo | SDP | at | CHC | R | x | x | At least 5 Ks in all 4 starts and no more than 3 ER in any of them | |
| 15 | Hayden Wesneski | CHC | SDP | R | x | x | Wasn’t great v. LAD, but wasn’t bad either; taking the shot w/SDP offense lagging & league-high 26% K v. RH | ||
| 16 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | at | ATL | L | x | Totally fine skipping this start, but gets ATL next time out, too, so could be parked on reserve for a bit | ||
| 17 | Mitch Keller | PIT | LAD | R | x | Oviedo was meh, Contreras was great; Keller’s been the best of the bunch — can he handle LAD? | |||
| 18 | Miles Mikolas | STL | at | SFG | R | x | The .402 BABIP will regress, but will that regression start in SF? They’re tied for 1st in K v. RH at 26% | ||
| 19 | JP Sears | OAK | at | LAA | L | x | On the radar after an 11-K game, but still some concerns about the 2.5 HR that incl. at least 1 HR per start | ||
| 20 | Zack Greinke | KCR | at | MIN | R | Essentially streaming for ratios with a 17% K and 0 Ws, not sure the juice is worth the squeeze | |||
| 21 | Joey Wentz | DET | BAL | L | Seems to be prone to blowup inning; could have some streamer value down the road | ||||
| 22 | Trevor Williams | WSN | at | NYM | R | I just don’t see any real upside |
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | OAK | R | x | x | x | 28 | 0.64 | 0.82 | 22% | 0.285 | 27th | |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | at | TEX | R | x | x | x | 34 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 21% | 0.349 | 5th |
| 3 | Shane McClanahan | TBR | at | CHW | L | x | x | x | 29 | 1.86 | 1.03 | 22% | 0.294 | 23rd |
| 4 | Tyler Mahle | MIN | KCR | R | x | x | x | 21.2 | 3.32 | 1.15 | 20% | 0.255 | 30th | |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | CHW | TBR | R | x | x | x | 26.1 | 2.73 | 1.18 | 18% | 0.365 | 1st | |
| 6 | George Kirby | SEA | at | PHI | R | x | x | x | 22.2 | 3.57 | 1.06 | 17% | 0.350 | 4th |
| 7 | Julio Urías | LAD | at | PIT | L | x | x | x | 27 | 3.33 | 1.22 | 23% | 0.359 | 5th |
| 8 | Logan Webb | SFG | STL | R | x | x | x | 30.2 | 4.40 | 1.14 | 26% | 0.325 | 12th | |
| 9 | Joey Lucchesi | NYM | at | WSN | L | x | x | x | 7 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 29% | 0.336 | 8th |
| 10 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | at | DET | R | x | x | x | 30 | 3.60 | 1.17 | 13% | 0.265 | 29th |
| 11 | Kyle Wright | ATL | MIA | R | x | x | x | 13.2 | 5.93 | 1.68 | 5% | 0.293 | 24th | |
| 12 | Andrew Heaney | TEX | NYY | L | x | x | x | 18.2 | 4.34 | 1.34 | 14% | 0.298 | 20th | |
| 13 | Matt Strahm | PHI | SEA | L | x | x | 17 | 3.18 | 1.00 | 28% | 0.286 | 28th | ||
| 14 | Seth Lugo | SDP | at | CHC | R | x | x | 22.2 | 2.78 | 1.28 | 18% | 0.344 | 6th | |
| 15 | Hayden Wesneski | CHC | SDP | R | x | x | 17.1 | 6.23 | 1.67 | 6% | 0.297 | 23rd | ||
| 16 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | at | ATL | L | x | 16 | 2.25 | 1.31 | 18% | 0.389 | 2nd | ||
| 17 | Mitch Keller | PIT | LAD | R | x | 29.2 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 15% | 0.350 | 3rd | |||
| 18 | Miles Mikolas | STL | at | SFG | R | x | 25.1 | 7.46 | 1.89 | 13% | 0.355 | 2nd | ||
| 19 | JP Sears | OAK | at | LAA | L | x | 21.2 | 4.98 | 1.11 | 22% | 0.359 | 4th | ||
| 20 | Zack Greinke | KCR | at | MIN | R | 27.1 | 4.61 | 1.28 | 13% | 0.315 | 18th | |||
| 21 | Joey Wentz | DET | BAL | L | 16.2 | 7.56 | 1.50 | 8% | 0.347 | 7th | ||||
| 22 | Trevor Williams | WSN | at | NYM | R | 21.1 | 3.38 | 1.08 | 11% | 0.317 | 15th |
Greinke is such an interesting pitcher. He’s gained a little velo this year and is over 90 for the 1st time since 2017, but he’s almost abandoned the 4-seamer for a cutter and 2-seamer and continues his escalated use of a curve ball which he’s been increasing over the last 4 or so years. He’s become a total kitchen-sink 6-pitch pitcher with at least 9.6% usage of 6 different pitches per Pitch Info (though 3 of them are fastballs). There can’t be anybody else throwing 6 different pitches at least 9.6% of the time. I skimmed the list of qualified pitchers and there are a couple guys that come close (Sonny Gray, Dean Kremer, Kyle Gibson, Bassitt) but nobody at 9.6%+ on 6 different pitches.(Darvish throws 7 pitches – LOL)
He’s become Chelcie Ross from Major League.
The writing is probably on the wall for him but I love that he is still out there trying to figure out a way to get guys out.
Bassitt throws 8 pitches.
Just going by what Pitch Info says since I wanted to skim through all pitchers and Fangraphs has a leaderboard page for Pitch Info and they say 6 for Bassitt. I do see where Savant gives him 8 pitches though