Starting Pitcher Chart – April 16th, 2024

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

How do y’all handle Hunter Greene? Do you try to time him and skip home starts? Or just go all out and use every start? Obviously he’s a start in Seattle, but I feel like you almost have to do the latter and just run him everywhere. He was a top 150 pick so even in the shallowest formats, he is part of the upper 2/3rds of a roster so there is some real expectation of production. I can envision having a rotation deep enough to spot him a bit in 10-teamers, but in 12-teamers or more, I can’t see sitting him, especially because his splits aren’t even that severe so you can find yourself sitting gems and eating duds.

Hunter Greene’s Home/Road Splits
HOME 116 4.87 1.32 20%
AWAY 138 4.43 1.28 23%
Soure: I looked it up

He and Nick Lodolo are tough ones for me because I’m a really big fan of both, but Great American Ballpark’s 128 HR Park Factor the last three years paired with Greene’s 1.6 HR9 and Lodolo’s 1.4 HR9 rates kept me away at the draft table. I know there’s a world where they both put it together enough to start suppressing homers, even at home, and fulfill their breakout prophecies. And that world is what feeds my FOMO with them.

Skipping Lodolo was just the injury to start the season and I don’t love drafting already-injured guys in the NFBC universe (7 reserves, no IL). But when push came to shove with Greene requiring a pick around 100 to really secure him (137 ADP in the Main Event with a min pick of 89), I just couldn’t see it. In one of my drafts, I took Tanner Bibee (who also throws on Tuesday) and Shota Imanaga in the 2 picks where I was really considering Greene, who went 4 picks after Imanaga at pick 125.

In my other draft, he lasted until 150 but I was hitter focused with 3 of my 4 picks from 101-150 and Yu Darvish as my only pitcher. I can certainly understand the argument for Greene over Darvish, but even at age-37 I felt more confident about what I can get with Darvish. They’ve been about the same thus far per our new Player Rater with Greene at 84 among pitchers and Darvish at 92. It seems like Greene has more upside because we can dream on just about anything if that stuff comes with a summer of premium command a la Germán Márquez in 2018, but we’re also not that far removed from Darvish’s 3.10 ERA/0.95 WHIP of 2022 which still exists as a potential upside. He started off that season with an 11% BB rate in 4 starts before delivering a 4% BB rate over his next 26 starts, fueling the excellent season.

Who do you like the rest of the way: Greene or Darvish?

Starter Notes April 16, 2024
1 Logan Gilbert SEA v CIN x x x 190 3.73 1.08 20% 14th
2 Grayson Rodriguez BAL v MIN x x x 122 4.35 1.34 17% 28th
3 Aaron Civale TBR v LAA x x x 122 3.46 1.16 16% 23rd
4 Jared Jones PIT at NYM x x x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 20th
5 Dylan Cease SDP at MIL x x x 177 4.58 1.42 17% 2nd
6 Hunter Greene CIN at SEA x x x 112 4.82 1.42 21% 30th
7 Garrett Whitlock BOS v CLE x x x 71 5.15 1.33 19% 16th
8 Tanner Bibee CLE at BOS x x x 142 2.98 1.18 16% 21st
9 Yusei Kikuchi TOR v NYY x x x 167 3.86 1.27 19% 12th
10 Reynaldo López ATL at HOU x x x 66 3.27 1.27 18% 6th
11 Jon Gray TEX at DET x x x 157 4.12 1.29 13% 25th
12 Carlos Rodón NYY at TOR x x x 64 6.85 1.45 13% 6th
13 Lance Lynn STL at OAK x x x 183 5.73 1.39 15% 29th
14 Ranger Suárez PHI v COL x x x 125 4.18 1.42 13% 18th
15 Jordan Hicks SFG at MIA x x x 65 3.29 1.36 17% 19th
16 Brady Singer KCR at CHW x x x 159 5.52 1.45 12% 26th
17 Wade Miley MIL v SDP x x 120 3.14 1.14 8% 7th
18 Jose Quintana NYM v PIT x x 75 3.57 1.31 11% 14th
19 Casey Mize DET v TEX x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 4th
20 José Soriano LAA at TBR x 42 3.64 1.33 18% 17th
21 JP Sears OAK v STL x 172 4.54 1.26 15% 19th
22 Chris Paddack MIN at BAL x 5 5.40 1.40 32% 10th
23 Ryan Weathers MIA v SFG x 57 6.55 1.68 5% 9th
24 Landon Knack LAD v WSN #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 28th
25 Kyle Hendricks CHC at ARI 137 3.74 1.20 11% 15th
26 Austin Gomber COL at PHI 139 5.50 1.49 7% 13th
27 Hunter Brown HOU v ATL 155 5.09 1.36 19% 1st
28 Tommy Henry ARI v CHC 89 4.15 1.36 8% 5th
29 Patrick Corbin WSN at LAD 180 5.20 1.48 8% 11th
30 Jonathan Cannon CHW v KCR #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 9th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th and I’ll start to add the SP’s data when we start getting 4-5 starts for most guys), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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1 month ago

Not starting Hunter Brown?!

1 month ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

He’s been so reliable this year though.

1 month ago
Reply to  ahduth

Actually laughed out loud at that.

1 month ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Was absolutely not serious about it. Looking forward to asking about him though in your chat tomorrow.

Master Live 013member
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Yeah, but I’m not even mad, just glad he seems back on track.