Starting Pitcher Chart – April 14th, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.
The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year and will do the same this year), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 14th which is still a pretty small sample, but we can start attacking some cold lineups or being careful with those performing well so far), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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The 2-Start chart is a Monday feature ranking the expected 2-start pitchers. I added the 2025 data to this board despite most guys still being around 3 starts. I’ll make the switch on the Daily SP Chart soon, too. I am a bit riskier early in the season when it comes to 2-start guys. It does put a bit more pressure on the ratios if you eat too many blowups, but we’ve got 5+ months to work on it and ratios can move a lot all year long. Plus, it’s not like I’m just frivolously starting any 2-start arm, just that I’ll take on some tougher starts at one end of the 2-step to get the potential gem against one of the worst teams in the league.
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| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | DET at MIL | x | x | x | 192 | 2.39 | 0.92 | 26% | 19th | |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT v WSN | x | x | x | 133 | 1.96 | 0.95 | 27% | 12th | |
| 3 | Framber Valdez | HOU at STL | x | x | x | 176 | 2.91 | 1.11 | 16% | 5th | |
| 4 | Joe Ryan | MIN v NYM | x | x | x | 135 | 3.60 | 0.99 | 23% | 26th | |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | STL v HOU | x | x | x | 166 | 3.84 | 1.09 | 24% | 23rd | The only real issue has been 4 HRs in 3 starts (2.3 HR9) as his 26% GB is 3rd-lowest and should regress |
| 6 | Dylan Cease | SDP v CHC | x | x | x | 189 | 3.47 | 1.07 | 21% | 6th | Smoked for 9 ER at ATH, though shockingly 0 HRs (9 H, 3 BB) |
| 7 | Clay Holmes | NYM at MIN | x | x | 63 | 3.14 | 1.30 | 17% | 21st | Hoped for a bit better than 5.3 IP/4 ER v. MIA, but 10 Ks and a W still helped | |
| 8 | Shane Baz | TBR v BOS | x | x | 79 | 3.06 | 1.06 | 13% | 17th | 2 solid starts going 96 pitches apiece but now gets his biggest challenge after PIT/LAA matchups | |
| 9 | Dustin May | LAD v COL | x | x | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 25th | Still starting him in this juicy matchup, but I wish we were seeing anyyy signs of K% upside (16% K, 8% SwStr) | |
| 10 | Landen Roupp | SFG at PHI | x | x | 50 | 3.58 | 1.37 | 10% | 16th | Rebounded from 4 BB outing at HOU w/0 v. CIN; eager to see the 2-step w/at LAA on the wknd | |
| 11 | Grant Holmes | ATL at TOR | x | x | 68 | 3.56 | 1.19 | 20% | 20th | 4 BB in both starts so far, this time running his pitch count to 104 and ending his day after 4 IP | |
| 12 | Seth Lugo | KCR at NYY | x | x | 206 | 3.00 | 1.09 | 16% | 3rd | Weekly lgers prob have to eat this to get the 2-step (at DET on wknd), but still not a must-start in shallow lgs | |
| 13 | Easton Lucas | TOR v ATL | x | x | 11 | 10.80 | 2.23 | 2% | 26th | Loving the 29% K/15% SwStr combo so far, but it’s just 2 starts; SEA on the wknd makes it a viable 2-step | |
| 14 | Jameson Taillon | CHC at SDP | x | x | 165 | 3.27 | 1.13 | 14% | 5th | 2 good starts after a dud in his season opener, but this SDP/ARI 2-step is tough so don’t feel obligated to run him | |
| 15 | Tanner Houck | BOS at TBR | x | 178 | 3.12 | 1.14 | 14% | 7th | If we don’t see some real improvement in this wk’s 2-step (CHW on the wknd), it might be time to move on in shallower formats | ||
| 16 | Taijuan Walker | PHI v SFG | x | 83 | 7.10 | 1.72 | 6% | 13th | I’m a long-time Walker superfan, but that means I’m fully aware of his shortcomings… that said, MIA on the wknd gives him sooome deep lg intrigue | ||
| 17 | Tyler Alexander | MIL v DET | 107 | 5.10 | 1.24 | 15% | 15th | ||||
| 18 | Brad Lord | WSN at PIT | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 28th | ||||
| 19 | Carlos Carrasco | NYY v KCR | 103 | 5.64 | 1.40 | 13% | 30th | ||||
| 20 | Antonio Senzatela | COL at LAD | 12 | 6.57 | 1.86 | -2% | 4th |
2-Start Board
| RANK | PITCHER | TYPE | MATCHUPS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | Pitch+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 1 | at MIL/KCR | 16.2 | 3.78 | 1.20 | 17% | 105 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 1 | WAS/CLE | 18.1 | 3.44 | 0.82 | 24% | 107 |
| 3 | Framber Valdez | 1 | at STL/SDP | 18 | 2.50 | 0.94 | 20% | 103 |
| 4 | Max Fried | 1 | KCR/at TBR | 17.1 | 1.56 | 1.21 | 23% | 103 |
| 5 | Joe Ryan | 1 | NYM/at ATL | 17 | 2.65 | 0.71 | 23% | 103 |
| 6 | Dylan Cease | 1 | CHC/at HOU | 14.2 | 7.98 | 1.57 | 18% | 107 |
| 7 | Luis Castillo | 2 | at CIN/at TOR | 17 | 2.12 | 1.12 | 13% | 113 |
| 8 | Ryan Pepiot | 2 | BOS/NYY | 16 | 3.38 | 1.50 | 12% | 106 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | 2 | at MIL/KCR | 16.2 | 1.62 | 0.96 | 21% | 100 |
| 10 | Jesús Luzardo | 2 | SFG/MIA | 18 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 29% | 116 |
| 11 | Sonny Gray | 2 | HOU/at NYM | 16 | 4.50 | 0.88 | 27% | 101 |
| 12 | Clay Holmes | 3 | at MIN/STL | 14.2 | 4.30 | 1.70 | 16% | 101 |
| 13 | Nick Lodolo | 3 | SEA/at BAL | 18.2 | 0.96 | 0.70 | 10% | 112 |
| 14 | Shane Baz | 3 | BOS/NYY | 13 | 1.38 | 1.08 | 24% | 105 |
| 15 | Tylor Megill | 3 | at MIN/STL | 14.1 | 0.63 | 1.26 | 16% | 97 |
| 16 | Seth Lugo | 3 | at NYY/at DET | 16.2 | 3.24 | 1.26 | 8% | 89 |
| 17 | Justin Verlander | 3 | at PHI/at LAA | 13 | 6.92 | 1.69 | 16% | 99 |
| 18 | Yusei Kikuchi | 4 | at TEX/SFG | 18 | 5.00 | 1.28 | 11% | 108 |
| 19 | Landen Roupp | 4 | at PHI/at LAA | 10 | 3.60 | 1.50 | 19% | 110 |
| 20 | Grant Holmes | 4 | at TOR/MIN | 9 | 4.00 | 1.67 | 7% | 95 |
| 21 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | 4 | at MIA/at CHC | 15 | 7.20 | 1.60 | -3% | 97 |
| 22 | Jeffrey Springs | 4 | at CHW/at MIL | 15 | 4.20 | 1.47 | 13% | 95 |
| 23 | Jameson Taillon | 4 | at SDP/ARI | 16.1 | 6.06 | 1.35 | 14% | 113 |
| 24 | Easton Lucas | 4 | ATL/SEA | 10.1 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 21% | 93 |
| 25 | Tyler Mahle | 4 | LAA/LAD | 13.2 | 1.32 | 0.88 | 9% | 116 |
| 26 | Tanner Houck | 4 | at TBR/CHW | 16.1 | 4.41 | 1.47 | 4% | 98 |
| 27 | Taijuan Walker | 5 | SFG/MIA | 10.2 | 0.00 | 1.13 | 11% | 93 |
| 28 | Charlie Morton | 5 | CLE/CIN | 13.1 | 8.78 | 1.88 | 14% | 90 |
| 29 | Tyler Alexander | 5 | DET/ATH | 12.2 | 2.84 | 1.18 | 10% | 91 |
| 30 | Sean Burke | 6 | ATH/BOS | 13.1 | 6.08 | 1.28 | 7% | 104 |
| 31 | Logan Allen | 6 | at BAL/at PIT | 10 | 3.60 | 1.80 | -4% | 92 |
| 32 | Carlos Carrasco | 6 | KCR/at TBR | 11.2 | 7.71 | 1.63 | 13% | 105 |
| 33 | Jake Irvin | 6 | at PIT/at COL | 16 | 5.63 | 1.50 | 9% | 102 |
| 34 | Brad Lord | 6 | at PIT/at COL | 5 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0% | 100 |
| 35 | Connor Gillispie | 6 | ARI/at PHI | 14 | 3.86 | 1.14 | 12% | 95 |
| 36 | Antonio Senzatela | 6 | at LAD/WAS | 14 | 5.14 | 2.14 | 4% | 109 |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
TYPE Key:
1 – Auto-Start | 2 – All Formats | 3 – Most Formats |
4 – Some Formats | 5 – YOLO | 6 – Hard Pass
I think you can safely remove the first paragraph now, Editor
Will do!